Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I'm not convinced and think it will be a lot more nuanced than that.

For my money there will be a trough located *somewhere* in the vicinity of the UK- but where?

Last update GLOSEA went for it to our N&E with more settled conditions towards the S&W

CFS has largely placed the trough to our SW- which would tally with warm/hot and potentially thundery weather-

image.thumb.png.aafe7f0e54fd4fe8dec461c15aba879a.png

Either way, we're unlikely to see a summer dominated by prolonged dry spells IMO.

I think there was a signal in the long term output for what you say a while back, but I think the trough dominated pattern needed an explosive demise of the strat vortex to give it credence which absolutely isn't what happened.  Certainly don't rule out some thundery weather in the mix as you say, it won't all be hot and dry, hot and thundery is also possible.  We'll see. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

Posted Images

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think there was a signal in the long term output for what you say a while back, but I think the trough dominated pattern needed an explosive demise of the strat vortex to give it credence which absolutely isn't what happened.  Certainly don't rule out some thundery weather in the mix as you say, it won't all be hot and dry, hot and thundery is also possible.  We'll see. 

I think the developing la Nina (especially as we go further into summer) will be the driver for more unsettled conditions rather than how the final warming occurred- but as you say, we'll see.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think the developing la Nina (especially as we go further into summer) will be the driver for more unsettled conditions rather than how the final warming occurred- but as you say, we'll see.

Maybe, if AAM follows it, but not sure about that yet, seems to be a bit in the middle, CFS shows this:

image.thumb.jpg.19c9c0f588dc39bb8fcb9e8d01330efc.jpg

But any road, it is good that we are talking about the weather again!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Some potential building around next Tuesday, if the GFS 00Z is to be believed:?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, alas, it all looks a bit chaotic after that, as the operational changes sides::shok:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

The ECM 0z operational shows high pressure building in strongly during the course of next week and gradually warming up...this would be a very good result..baby steps to a return to glorious sunny days!☀️?B3B34979-C32F-4911-813B-E7F903A3AC7E.gif.7574913830a4799c4b29ca68c9405406.gif

766D10A5-0C99-458A-BE88-D0B487E07590.thumb.png.fa78016d6d207104df32ddb414909f53.png14A035D3-C654-4F1A-9A70-72482ADB23D7.thumb.png.c73130db7ba23e42a9050faf324fa920.pngD696A096-8B7E-476E-BC37-6F2CF941D1B5.thumb.png.c049245f82c8adac1f57bdb74a787009.png1D9691AE-A6FE-45D9-9B55-FFB99A85D283.thumb.png.0ad90010f645bc839958b34a2386b064.pngA6656AEC-402F-456D-AE11-C257F67B6143.thumb.png.9c734ea909b73a9c732acacbb6c154bf.png72661F90-3979-4AE3-8ECB-554A14423B58.thumb.png.8674833f51fd55e088460e8f66621c38.png

Lockdown with two kids without sunshine is bloody hard! I saw early May being touted for this a while back... Fingers crossed 

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

No help from the 500 mb anomaly charts this morning, two agree and one does not.

The 3 500 mb anomaly charts still show different ideas, EC and GFS are similar with 500 mb ridging and +ve heights for the UK area; NOAA has a trough, like yesterday just west of the country lying down to off Iberia and just slight height rises east out over Europe. So no guidance there.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 26/04/2020 at 23:16, Allseasons-si said:

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind...

I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new love one or or best friend 

i have never spent so much time in the garden and i cherish it,i just hope that the weather improves much more after this week coming,like i said earlier,this month has been outstanding for this time of the year and hopefully May will continue the same

on these touching times where we cannot visit friends and family,i am great full of this site in communicating on here,god bless the internet

laters.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The good news is that the ECM 0z ensemble mean (like the operational) shows a gradually improving mid / longer term outlook following a very unsettled / trough dominated short term..obviously the change to settled (high pressure / ridging) isn’t as strong as the op but even so it’s a marked improvement as time goes on!☀️

FBCC23A9-AD68-4F73-9AA8-52CF5568AA11.thumb.gif.0da43e1e7546910018476b3e7c74756d.gif2BF4CCB2-7972-4766-87A9-472AFA804198.thumb.gif.f7630d9312c3f5b2ef096ad3fbb705c4.gif42A858A8-C811-4C2F-A724-635082099C49.thumb.gif.c64a40bce4e8b57044f834b655e5ca37.gif91C6D06F-D96C-414D-915F-80A1B97336E3.thumb.gif.44dc09e52145fe8645f4526d91a768dd.gif718759D0-77B6-4A39-89F9-59A5973D7DC0.thumb.gif.e82486468f925d8cd683035923a3f7c3.gifD9455B2C-3FBF-4D48-B834-41C5F5FEA0F2.thumb.gif.454d08a990f0aa2ea3ad6290b47ac8cb.gifF1381DEB-659A-4F12-BF5A-15D672D7D881.thumb.gif.60d569316310c9e52d922053ea7597b0.gif

 

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

Tuesday's 'plume' is starting to look a tad less than spectacular??

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Though, with that HP around, it should be quite fine...:unsure2:

Edited by General Cluster
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good afternoon all. The models are showing a bit of a mess at the moment about whether there will be a plume or not. Some models are suggesting a plume, and some are not. Looking at the GFS 06z, it is indeed still showing a plume, but it could only be more confined for southern areas, where temperatures could scrape the high-teens or low twenties. Because of a low nearby, this for the SW could result in, I dare say it, thunderstorms rain! :oldlaugh: Enjoy the rest of your afternoon ?

h500slp.thumb.png.005160230d5fcbc520d500f078827f88.png   753172251_h500slp(1).thumb.png.aa0ab185e86d85acda1fe8199779404d.png   816870053_h500slp(2).thumb.png.280afffa60f7d4084fcb6438f67840ed.png   h850t850eu.thumb.png.3e5f0fef9638ac3fbfb4d3b5a2f98639.png   ukprec.thumb.png.8ad5eb6edd7f053f795604ee1c87f467.png

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

Evening all. In my opinion, the GFS 12z is a very good run! It shows some of the warmth next week not only being confined to southern areas, but possibly for northern areas! On Wednesday it's showing the highest being 23c in the London area, but it could get higher than that. It even shows the possibility of importing some thunderstorms from France. Me gusta!!

Hopefully though more models will start to show it. The GFS only agrees with this and no other models as far as I'm aware of. But hopefully we will see more sunshine and perhaps thunderstorms next week! Fingers crossed!! ??️☀️

h500slp.thumb.png.8131d7d4ed75b47334bee3162019cae7.png   915340159_h500slp(1).thumb.png.a96fade8ddfb4412db3e9bde197b0c6f.png   h850t850eu.thumb.png.eca85ae50984e6cca034dee66a2593f6.png   ukprec.thumb.png.081a95b795af501cbf58eabb3c535573.png   ukstormrisk.thumb.png.8c0f65f6bab6db03245572f21c28f5fd.png   1933063242_h850t850eu(1).thumb.png.36c90389b843cca902a336c20577ca42.png   ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.60546e168f12231b82d44bd0f96a555d.png   ukcapeli.thumb.png.a0b671f4aad72bcddf663ae879a8dc5f.png   giphy.thumb.gif.3df7ed620e98070d2be33c945028b500.gif

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Waiting in Barnsley for the rain to clear and sun come out. Come gfs 12z bring the pluming goods lol. 

I will take that run, it still looks good for the plume...let's hope it's right against all the models that are not interested!

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

For next week, we’re looking at either one of the clearest examples of GFS’ classic northward & eastward bias with cut-off lows we’ve seen, or an impressive embarrassment of the other models inbound soon.

Interesting how the ECM, UKMO and GEM 00z runs all came together on keeping the trough fully southwest of the UK, but GFS has continued to plough it’s own furrow regardless.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

For next week, we’re looking at either one of the clearest examples of GFS’ classic northward & eastward bias with cut-off lows we’ve seen, or an impressive embarrassment of the other models inbound soon.

Interesting how the ECM, UKMO and GEM 00z runs all came together on keeping the trough fully southwest of the UK, but GFS has continued to plough it’s own furrow regardless.

I think i shall still go with the classic northward and eastward bias please!!

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

To be fair to the GFS, all models have been flapping around over the past couple of days with this setup. Only yesterday UKMO had the low over the U.K.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM is lovely tonight if you want some sunshine and warmth to return. Would really be an unexpected bonus from a couple of days ago.

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...