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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM looks very optimistic. Almost certainly a very warm outlier (though hoping deep down its correct!)

It certainly is and i hope it's a trend setter?

graphe_ens3_nnx1.thumb.png.f2a9ec668b3f5959843b10c5d41694dc.png

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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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56 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It certainly is and i hope it's a trend setter?

graphe_ens3_nnx1.thumb.png.f2a9ec668b3f5959843b10c5d41694dc.png

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Also a huge pressure and 500mb height outlier. Shame really. We will more than likely just end up with some mild rain.

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Morning all,

Looking at the GEFS 0z there continues to be potential for a plume early next week with at least some warm / humid air pumping north, currently its more of a glancing blow and there’s timing issues but it wouldn’t take much of a shift to enable a direct hit and draw the very warm / hot continental air north...certainly its interesting and hopefully is a sign of things to come in the months ahead!?

FC92D284-37AE-4B67-AD64-8136FA0C11C2.thumb.png.ed2852432bc6cc7ad091098b0c66cab9.pngCB4200A0-5BCA-4D02-B7E3-371ADA470811.thumb.png.903f1c89ba6cd7c9bba32230b18bd551.pngBD0531D5-AEA0-4D43-BEA0-9AADAD945886.thumb.png.1256196f95d161c3e97ef0668fe44347.pngF992C32A-D999-4CF5-9C2B-48695FBE6050.thumb.png.ed55c3663a4875380067c24c555ac5ec.png3CF931BF-D092-4AAE-A436-8B64B7653C96.thumb.png.8282506233b56483a567bec2eae73355.pngAF51EEC1-EB82-4009-BB39-59A67CF60CFD.thumb.png.e00995cae29d781ba7b81055c3693b70.png083AD3E7-DCD7-497F-B5A4-0E372D1C8349.thumb.png.f9087c983d9bbc846043d29b1e88bb00.png

 

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Not time to post just now but the anomaly charts are, well EC and GFS, are trending to some sign of +ve heights just S/E of the UK, less so from NOAA.

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO is the latest to cut off the low west of Iberia and looks set to deliver the plume in the days that follow

UW144-21.GIF?28-07

Some similarities on the ECM, GFS not interested 

ECM1-144.GIF?28-12

After such a glorious April, what happens after this weeks more unsettled spell has perked my interest in the models a bit lately. As you say both UKMO and ECM cutting off that low to the far south west bringing in a lovely plume of very warm air!

GFS not in agreement and GEFS look consistently wet. Let’s hope EC and UKMO have this one right! 

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ECM is a really big outlier again this morning. Let’s hope the higher res op run is sniffing this out ahead of the ensemble pack. Otherwise it could end up really wet and miserable!

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45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is a really big outlier again this morning. Let’s hope the higher res op run is sniffing this out ahead of the ensemble pack. Otherwise it could end up really wet and miserable!

Seems to be two possibilities for the plume - some runs have a faster movement of the plume through Europe early next week, brushing the SE corner, and then another smallish cluster following the op, delivering a later peak for the UK towards the end of next week. Not exceptionally hot except on the genuine outliers. Added to that, a number of runs see the plume missing the UK completely. However, with both the UKMO and ECM looking set to push the plume towards the UK later in the week, I'd myself put that option as the slight favourite for now. D10-D15 looks slightly above average for temps, too.

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Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean there’s certainly a spell of much more unsettled / trough dominated weather in the short term compared to recently but further ahead trends less unsettled / troughy with quite a slack pressure field, there’s still a window of opportunity for a brief plume across the south / southeast early next week so we certainly can’t rule it out as things stand.

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Edited by JON SNOW
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Hmmm things getting interesting again!!a plume gathering pace for next week!!what looked like a really wet period is now being toned down again!!!although it been raining here for the last 2 hours quite heavily!!ground is extremely dry though!!!gfs 06z looks to push that low even further west at 138 hours with stronger ridging over the uk!!

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Well that's a pretty tasty run! Fingers crossed for some thundery weather along with it ?️?

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As I could make so little sense out of the GFS 06Z, I went for the ensembles...Once the 'plume' is out of the way, the amount of divergence goes 'off the scale'. Anyone-else find the op's 'desire' to create masses of cold air a tad confusing?:cc_confused:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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UKMO - says absolutely no to the plume set up, and ploughs a low straight across at 144. See what the ecm says later I guess...

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More settled weather on the cards!!!

(Only joking. If only it was inside the reliable time frame, though!)

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Edited by Zak M
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42 minutes ago, mb018538 said:UKMO - says absolutely no to the plume set up, and ploughs a low straight across at 144. See what the ecm says later I guess...

A complete flip from its earlier run - so different, it’s actually laughable and at a so-called semi-reliable range. GFS, on the other hand, has moved towards the plume a bit more.

Now I know why I class FI at 120, and despite all the advances in technology, that hasn’t changed much over the years.

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I got so confused with the 12Z that I watched Geostorm, on Netflix, instead; even Zak'd be happy with that much lightning!:oldlaugh:

Meanwhile, back in the real word, I think we've hit the annual springtime variance problem??

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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ECM still showing the plume at 120

Edit: Said that too soon, shows a low at 144

Edit 2: Said that there was a low at 144 too soon lmao, looks to be back at 168

ECM1-120.gif

Edited by Zak M
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Well i don't know what to make out of this plume as nothing is nailed on yet

most of the gefs ens says yes

graphe3_1000_262_30___.thumb.png.80c505cfa6af78466c4d333b23132ea4.png

but pick your bones out of this lot at 144

so we have two models v's three,the ICON and GFS  go for the plume

iconnh-0-144.thumb.png.c1b3afd98c3006584612d8af1a204f2e.pnggensnh-0-1-144.thumb.png.4170cb02f01be77dd919160cd9969282.png

where as the UKMO,GEM and ECM don't

UN144-21.thumb.gif.d82efd3cea475eb47cfec1baff86c133.gifgemnh-0-144.thumb.png.d0d62214dee971ad66b49c1ac7ee18f9.pngECH1-144.thumb.gif.f358349d5059299f36f09c62676ee942.gif

so still a bit to be resolved,what next,snow from the NE,wouldn't surprise me??

Remember to Mask up before you venture out ?

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STAY SAFE ALL.

 

 

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The duality of spring, captured in a single timeframe of the ECM 12z operational with +15 T850 hPA (the magic 564 dam) almost touching the south coast of England and chilly -6 uppers across the far north of Scotland!......just changing the subject slightly..reading between the lines I think there will be further plume opportunities during May..and hopefully June..July..August!!??

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Edited by JON SNOW
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Evening all ?

As often happens as we transit from the winter to the summer pattern, warm days are interrupted by much colder days. Today has been more like late February than late April but it's transient (the cold not the rain). Moving into May where are we tonight ?

ECM1-240.GIF?28-0gem-0-240.png?12gfs-0-240.png?12gens-0-1-240.png

Tonight's 12Z T+240 output from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Control respectively.

A decent signal for a push of HP from the Azores (GEM a shade more reluctant) but more to the north and west of the British Isles (and indeed retrogression according to GFS FI) which is something we occasionally see in the mid spring pattern. The signal for northern blocking remains powerful and with pressure low over Continental Europe we see a residual NE'ly across the south and south east and the best of the dry and warm weather to the NW Highlands and Islands which can enjoy some of their best weather of the year at this time with the Atlantic quiet.

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6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

So it looks like a hot one. 

I'm not convinced and think it will be a lot more nuanced than that.

For my money there will be a trough located *somewhere* in the vicinity of the UK- but where?

Last update GLOSEA went for it to our N&E with more settled conditions towards the S&W

CFS has largely placed the trough to our SW- which would tally with warm/hot and potentially thundery weather-

image.thumb.png.aafe7f0e54fd4fe8dec461c15aba879a.png

Either way, we're unlikely to see a summer dominated by prolonged dry spells IMO.

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