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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 Too many charts posted without considering the surface conditions, maybe wayhey if you like mid teens and rain in June.

I think he was looking more at the HP to the west. Think you may need to top up your half empty glass! ?

Edited by Djdazzle
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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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Don't know what people are seeing at days 9/10 on the ECM but there isn't an Azores high ridging in. It's a N Atlantic HP barreling about, with weak fronts moving around the top of it. 

Not a washout, but all very average. 

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Don't know what people are seeing at days 9/10 on the ECM but there isn't an Azores high ridging in. It's a N Atlantic HP barreling about, with weak fronts moving around the top of it. 

Not a washout, but all very average. 

I think people are seeing the fact that HP is slightly closer. Ties in with the long term prognosis with the HP moving east. The models are unlikely to pick that up at this stage.

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Just now, Djdazzle said:

I think people are seeing the fact that HP is slightly closer. Ties in with the long term prognosis with the HP moving east. The models are unlikely to pick that up at this stage.

To be perfectly honest, I'm not seeing a massive signal for HP to pull as far E as perhaps people are expecting I.e proper plume situation.

Seems to be a decent longer range signal for pleasant conditions to persist on the whole though.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

To be perfectly honest, I'm not seeing a massive signal for HP to pull as far E as perhaps people are expecting I.e proper plume situation.

Seems to be a decent longer range signal for pleasant conditions to persist on the whole though.

I was just referring to some of the thoughts of people such as Tamara. I agree that it may not move completely to our east, but possibly on or near the U.K.

At least the 12z ECM is an improvement longer term on the 00z.

Edited by Djdazzle
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14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Don't know what people are seeing at days 9/10 on the ECM but there isn't an Azores high ridging in. It's a N Atlantic HP barreling about, with weak fronts moving around the top of it. 

Not a washout, but all very average. 

Yes,point taken and wasn't taking much notice but was just looking at the UK with a big red blob out in the Atlantic in the corner of my eye lol

i mentioned this the other day that the hp cell is not orientated correctly or in an unfavorable position and we would pull in cooler air around the top

we have been spoilt really over the last couple of months and it's bound to happen at some point.

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Yeah the mid atlantic ridge slightly further north than Azores islands, but still staying fairly close to the Uk. Definintly cooler but not overly wet. Just right i think.

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31 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I think he was looking more at the HP to the west. Think you may need to top up your half empty glass! ?

Not really, mid teens in June isn’t my thing. While it’s not nailed on this pattern is the more than concerning as we know it’s can easily get locked in. 

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Posted (edited)

Don't worry summer lovers... Take know notice, we have some rain on the way... Big deal... Unfortunately some will miss out on any useful amounts.. The end of next week is rather uncertain, due to the positioning of Low Pressure, if its further East, perhaps and improving picture out West... If its further West, then next weekend could be ruined... But only for us sun lovers.. The Gardens will welcome it.. Its a depressing thought after all this glorious weather, know worse feeling than waking up in a morning, opening up the curtains to see grey skies and rain... Mehhhhh.... But fear not High pressure is close to the rebuild.. The following week could see the marked Improvements.... It will be back.... Oh yesss... ☀️?

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Edited by MATT☀️
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2 hours ago, Alderc said:

 Too many charts posted without considering the surface conditions, maybe wayhey if you like mid teens and rain in June.

Irrespective of temps we could do with some decent rainfall. am hoping those possibilities don't disappear like a cold spell in winter!

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1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Not really, mid teens in June isn’t my thing. While it’s not nailed on this pattern is the more than concerning as we know it’s can easily get locked in. 

Name me a June that has not had temps in the mid teens at some stage. Every single June I can think of has had at least some cool days, even the classic ones.

2003, 2018, 2006 and even 1976 earlier on in the month had some days in the mid teens.

So this is a very normal occurrence and to expect warm temps all the way through June is unrealistic anyway.

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4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Name me a June that has not had temps in the mid teens at some stage. Every single June I can think of has had at least some cool days, even the classic ones.

2003, 2018, 2006 and even 1976 earlier on in the month had some days in the mid teens.

So this is a very normal occurrence and to expect warm temps all the way through June is unrealistic anyway.

Yep and even the classic 1995 summer had a cool first half of June.

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Looking through the ECM individual ensembles D11-D15, the key feature isn't an Azores High but some sort of European trough. In fact, this has been the case for several runs. This leaves the UK in a precarious position for a weather forecast - it could lead to more backdoor warmth from central/eastern Europe, but it may mean prolonged spells of wet weather stuck over the UK if it sets up slightly further north. The runs with a strong Azores High through the UK remain in the minority. North and West may be the best guarantee for dry weather during this period. Oh, and you can forget a plume in the next two weeks if recent ensembles have been anywhere near close to the mark. 

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Posted (edited)

We are just going to have to rut it out guys that it is inevitable that we are going to see a change in the weather patterns mid next week on wards thanks to the hp cell re-locating into the Atlantic and in an unfavorable position and we cannot do anything about it other than look further ahead to see if there is light at the end of the tunnel

here are the eps/gefs 500mb height and temp anomaly's for day ten

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.cac55590fc641a3423f7f272bede4b18.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.4b524262673cc8514cbd61ed41095074.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.fc84e8849c3284af93569677babb598b.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.9fc46cbd84908891a0568e177f471d35.png

and as you can see we have the hp cell to the west of the UK and if you follow the contours you will see that the upper winds are from a N/NWs'ly component with temps below average(blue shading),the gefs has the hp cell closer to the UK but not that much to change the variance in the weather so pretty much the same scenario,now what i will be looking at in future runs and trends is that can we have a link up with the Atlantic hp cell with the Scandinavia/Russian hp cell with a cut off low to our south,this in tern would settle things down and start to warm up again with maybe a continental feed of a warmer variety,the models was toying with this over the past week and it could be plausible

looking at the latest from the cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb height anomaly outlook shows just what i have mentioned above and looking into the extended(8-14 days) the hp cell looks like it could influence the weather more as we go into the midweek period of June

610day_03.thumb.gif.e6998476baa72fd37c2e94dca153803a.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.ef1cdd19621e28e16e57d699008cf203.gif

i am trying here to find some positives and there are tentative signs of that but we all know how quick models and anomaly's can change day to day so hang on in there guys,a slightly rough ride on the roller coaster but i hope it all comes to a stop without too much of a bumpy ride, and we head towards more sunshine and warmth.

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laters?

Edited by Allseasons-si
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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking through the ECM individual ensembles D11-D15, the key feature isn't an Azores High but some sort of European trough. In fact, this has been the case for several runs. This leaves the UK in a precarious position for a weather forecast - it could lead to more backdoor warmth from central/eastern Europe, but it may mean prolonged spells of wet weather stuck over the UK if it sets up slightly further north. The runs with a strong Azores High through the UK remain in the minority. North and West may be the best guarantee for dry weather during this period. Oh, and you can forget a plume in the next two weeks if recent ensembles have been anywhere near close to the mark. 

Will have to settle for some eastern promise the MWB?

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Posted (edited)

Pub run T174:

image.thumb.jpg.2a8a324d37dc6c9afa5175287c440c10.jpg

West is best...but for how long?   High pressure will build east on this one.

Edited by Mike Poole
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15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Come on, it gets there in the end, GFS 18z ,  T252:

image.thumb.jpg.c4494b7861c96fde274ceb9bbf759057.jpg

The sun will return, and sooner than some think,,,,,

From all the different ensembles I've seen, this is a fairly typical scenario - a link between the Azores High and Russian High with a fairly weak trough underneath. Could be persistently wet under the trough for a while, but eventually high pressure will hopefully sink the trough further and further south. Not a given that this will be a sunny situation - best in the NW this one. 

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18z GFS has high pressure nudging in from the west once again.

PS. Happy first of June everyone! I am kind of excited that we are now in meteorological summer and hopefully this unsettled spell that is expected this week won't last for too long and will lead to a very good summer, if not, the best!! ?

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Posted (edited)

A JFF post from me today (which is probably most of my posts)

This is the 06z CFS from Saturday. Not every day do you see this...

cfs-0-1620.thumb.png.25d773f3debca0aa0105d57c8456dbad.png   cfs-2-1620.thumb.png.9e7439d93db7217855a2952d65522627.png

Well, not in my 9 months of watching models have I ever seen that, low 20s uppers in S France! :oldlaugh:

Edited by Zak M
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Obviously for the outlook to improve, the Atlantic has to flatten and we have to get some PV near or over Greenland, the models are sort of toying with that idea but uncertainty how quick this process will be. 

I also don't think the outlook is as bad as people may think it will be, there be increased rainfall but because of the cool uppers, I suspect it will be convective and showery in nature than persistent rain(apart from when the cold front heads southwards this week). I think the most notable aspect of this spell of weather could be the wind, gales are certainly possible but details subject to change. 

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