Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, jules216 said:

After wet and miserable winter you have got a nice compensation of warm and settled spring in UK and IE. I am still waiting for our compensation after mild and relatively snowless winter here in Slovakia. I can not describe to you how bad this spring has turned out to be. One of few positives was sunny April,but it was under very windy NE regime which persisted until now and temperature departures have progressively fallen more and more into negative anomalies. Upshot will be even colder May than last year. Last year by magic heat arrived on 1st of June and summer ended very warm. This year no magic will happen and June will start where spring ended. Unreal, I don't remember seeing such a prolonged cold spell in a long long time.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_3.png

Same in the Eastern Alps , @jules216 Horrid cold and cloudy conditions day after day. Looking on at envy the British Isles weather !

C

  • Like 4
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

Posted Images

Not the best of starts this morning gota say!!ecm and especially ukmo less settled compared to yesterday much earlier on!!differences as early as 96 hours!!gfs looks settled today but i just dont have much trust in that model anymore!!in terms of rainfall the ukmo looks to have the most but ecm and gfs dry  for most of the run so thats not good news for gardeners!!still warm for next 6 days though!!

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I don’t think the synoptics are the same but it reminds me of the nice start to June last year (sunny and warm for the first 2/3 days) before turning wet and cool, dire and only in the low teens on 10th/11th/13th here.. with temperatures not reaching 20°C again IMBY until the 17th. Hoping anything less settled doesn’t stick too long, or it’s not a washout.

Edited by CheesepuffScott
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

I’m ? for this chart to verify...absolutely stunning!!!!??
3DC4D696-8A64-410D-8A05-461E58E68211.thumb.png.e2d0955a74b195e4389c485e6941ebcd.pngD5708D28-A116-48CA-AFE3-834497842EFE.thumb.png.5a54c4e6e018503aed868053a21b097f.png306154FF-1F64-4F19-8908-B2021EBBEB2B.thumb.jpeg.ff2a5879e0ff31a99e7c7679717db16a.jpeg

48C81DF8-0C8B-486D-803C-F1A7BADB1967.jpeg

That would certainly put an end to the June 13th enigma.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The conditions look good for the next 5 days, we do experience a breakdown beyond this point.. Most definitely much cooler with some rain around, still not sure how much and where and when.. ECM goes on to show signs of recovery by day 10...High Pressure looks to be building in again.. Its usually not a good sign to see everything out at day 10..but I feel this Summer could be different.. Enjoy the grand weather we have this Weekend folks.☀️?

ECM1-48.gif

ECM1-96.gif

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192 (1).gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240 (1).gif

AnxiousThirdDutchsmoushond-small.gif

Edited by MATT☀️
  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

Seasonals have completely missed out on this huge cold pool to the East and NE,they have such a warm bias that gets exposed from time to time,there is hope they will once miss out on it in winter aka January 2017 ?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

96823658-FA88-4643-A79B-8ED87C28C9D8.thumb.jpeg.18e7a3978903c4ed81807fc11894d86a.jpeg

Just seen this on the BBC weather pages today about the dry and sunny spring. Dry and warm to continue to dominate? Do they have access to a secret model run that is mere mortals and the Met office don’t? What a strange statement to put out.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hard to grasp given the current conditions that we'll likely be entering the second half of June with potentially a notable negative anomaly on the CET. I'm hoping the tropical disturbance potentially forming in the mid-Atlantic might shake things up a little, if not have to hope high pressure topples over us. Either way with a large trough over central Europe its going to take a decent period of time everything to warm back up again.    

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

96823658-FA88-4643-A79B-8ED87C28C9D8.thumb.jpeg.18e7a3978903c4ed81807fc11894d86a.jpeg

Just seen this on the BBC weather pages today about the dry and sunny spring. Dry and warm to continue to dominate? Do they have access to a secret model run that is mere mortals and the Met office don’t? What a strange statement to put out.

Simple explanation : they are useless. Amazing to think that we had a better quality of forecast in the 90s.

Edited by Djdazzle
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

96823658-FA88-4643-A79B-8ED87C28C9D8.thumb.jpeg.18e7a3978903c4ed81807fc11894d86a.jpeg

Just seen this on the BBC weather pages today about the dry and sunny spring. Dry and warm to continue to dominate? Do they have access to a secret model run that is mere mortals and the Met office don’t? What a strange statement to put out.

Sounds about right to me?

The pattern will relax slightly next week & it'll turn cooler, perhaps showery at times from the north but certainly nothing on the models to suggest a washout or anything other than a continuation of below average rainfall. The EC46 has the UK/NW Europe under high pressure until the end of the run with a Scandi > Atlantic high combination. 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The downgrade of the cool spell begins. High looks a lot stronger out west to me. Just more of a 1 day blip. But could all change by this evening. FI IS DEFO FROM MONDAY NEXT WEEK. 

h850t850eu (7).png

Edited by weathermadbarnsleylad
Missed pic
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Sounds about right to me?

The pattern will relax slightly next week & it'll turn cooler, perhaps showery at times from the north but certainly nothing on the models to suggest a washout or anything other than a continuation of below average rainfall. The EC46 has the UK/NW Europe under high pressure until the end of the run with a Scandi > Atlantic high combination. 

Checked the EC specific timeframes. E.g day 15-19 and 19-24 looked like unsettled interludes sometimes. Where did ya get ec46 from though?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Just checked short ensemble(can you believe it) the op is a cold outlier even with its downgrade of the cool spell from the 00z. Mean goes back above +5 850hap after the 4th June. A lot more runs needed I tell thee. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

 

10 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Just checked short ensemble(can you believe it) the op is a cold outlier even with its downgrade of the cool spell from the 00z. Mean goes back above +5 850hap after the 4th June. A lot more runs needed I tell thee. 

Again like my earlier post people not really looking at the broad spectrum outputs to see that certain operationals are the only ones shown cold unsettled whereas more muggy unsettled may be the reality (low pressure bringing drift of above average airmass from the east)

NB. My preference is for dry hot weather however if we must have an unsettled spell it shouldnt have to be bone chilling northeasterlies does my head in!

Edited by Paceyboy
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

If I was a betting man (which I’m not!)...I would bet on a much cooler plunge from the north going by this run from the ECM 0z ensemble mean..but not only this run..also from the Gfs / Ecm 0z op and Gefs 0z mean!...and yesterday’s output too!?..hope it doesn’t last long and hope we see a return to the current glorious conditions when it ends..Amen!??

0E53F5A7-F432-4E10-92D9-8A71530FC7A7.thumb.gif.37d7009660a94807a4ab6fbfda64ec0c.gif5965043E-E373-493E-BA22-C066938B0166.thumb.gif.2dc97e3878198a9dcf60a5b0041a09a6.gif9B98110D-AD66-4E70-ABC8-0B7C95973240.thumb.gif.33d1a7379911af5c5a9003617d095b65.gif

 

 

 

Edited by JON SNOW
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Sounds about right to me?

The pattern will relax slightly next week & it'll turn cooler, perhaps showery at times from the north but certainly nothing on the models to suggest a washout or anything other than a continuation of below average rainfall. The EC46 has the UK/NW Europe under high pressure until the end of the run with a Scandi > Atlantic high combination. 

I’ll see. I remain sceptical for the moment that June will continue where April and May have blazed a trail. Time well tell!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Simple explanation : they are useless. Amazing to think that we had a better quality of forecast in the 90s.

I couldn't disagree more mate.. When all the talk was of a severe Winter the other year.. Met office included.. They were about the only organisation playing it down! And I think ec46 tends to agree with that scenario... Most likely Glosea also. 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Tamara said:

As a brief update, this is still the case ?    

The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the whole of the rest of June or indeed the rest of the summer to come.

Extended numerical model ensemble data just starting to reflect a return of upstream momentum to shunt the retracted Atlantic ridge back eastwards sometime around the mid month period. For example here is the EC weekly update for week 3.

imageproxy.php?img=&key=8d7953939bb9d6101973113869_ECweekly.thumb.GIF.d5f465e4b679a42e6484968a1e8d53ca.GIF          image.thumb.png.c8b9f73fb8209ba0ebe75421299afa21.png

 

So a good proportion of a week of very warm weather still to come as from from today, taking us into the first few days of the first week of June - and then that underwhelming cool and possibly showery northerly incursion during week 2 of June leading to a steady improvement thereafter 

Continued assessment of the diagnostic and wind-flow budget vs NWP interpretation of these will be required in this very early part of the summer - but there continues to be nothing at this time to suggest a prolonged cool and unseasonal washout.

Enjoy this lovely weather and take in the sunshine vitamin to help wellbeing ?

 

Yeah..and the relative members cfsv2 index reflective of other bystanding outs..of a quick return to HP domination (of sorts) thereafter...GO

so a blip....and even that has *somewhat* resolve for complete fruition atm...?

 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

I couldn't disagree more mate.. When all the talk was of a severe Winter the other year.. Met office included.. They were about the only organisation playing it down! And I think ec46 tends to agree with that scenario... Most likely Glosea also. 

Maybe I was a bit harsh, and I’m not disagreeing with the long term prognosis. It’s just that they put out these headlines which people then take as gospel!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Tamara said:

As a brief update, this is still the case ?    

The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the whole of the rest of June or indeed the rest of the summer to come.

Extended numerical model ensemble data just starting to reflect a return of upstream momentum to shunt the retracted Atlantic ridge back eastwards sometime around the mid month period. For example here is the EC weekly update for week 3.

imageproxy.php?img=&key=8d7953939bb9d6101973113869_ECweekly.thumb.GIF.d5f465e4b679a42e6484968a1e8d53ca.GIF          image.thumb.png.c8b9f73fb8209ba0ebe75421299afa21.png

 

So a good proportion of a week of very warm weather still to come as from from today, taking us into the first few days of the first week of June - and then that underwhelming cool and possibly showery northerly incursion during week 2 of June leading to a steady improvement thereafter 

Continued assessment of the diagnostic and wind-flow budget vs NWP interpretation of these will be required in this very early part of the summer - but there continues to be nothing at this time to suggest a prolonged cool and unseasonal washout.

Enjoy this lovely weather and take in the sunshine vitamin to help wellbeing ?

 

Great post Tamara!

(Thought it might be worth pointing out that the EC weekly chart you posted is from 2 runs ago. At least according to a message we’ve had). 

I always feel so horrible when I point things  out though as I always feel like I’m being rude or something. Sorry ??

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Great post Tamara!

(Thought it might be worth pointing out that the EC weekly chart you posted is from 2 runs ago. At least according to a message we’ve had). 

I always feel so horrible when I point things  out though as I always feel like I’m being rude or something. Sorry ??

How rude

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Zak M said:

GEFS 06z perturbation 7

7_324_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.d965561dea936ff2859d6a2ad6225bcc.png

I’d buy that for a dollar..or at least 50-cent!..anyway, some kind of bounce back from the upcoming cool plunge shown on the 0z and to a lesser extent 6z output is quite logical when you think about it!!??

84B1AA28-42D7-48A9-A802-DA39173A143E.thumb.jpeg.e8f43319784e333abc62e68abd76dc65.jpeg4F1258DE-D6B7-4FFB-80B4-25CF28AA3DFC.thumb.gif.152d151930ab96ab21743e20aaf15e86.gif

Edited by JON SNOW
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tamara said:

As a brief update, this is still the case ?    

The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the whole of the rest of June or indeed the rest of the summer to come.

Extended numerical model ensemble data just starting to reflect a return of upstream momentum to shunt the retracted Atlantic ridge back eastwards sometime around the mid month period. For example here is the EC weekly update for week 3.

imageproxy.php?img=&key=8d7953939bb9d6101973113869_ECweekly.thumb.GIF.d5f465e4b679a42e6484968a1e8d53ca.GIF          image.thumb.png.c8b9f73fb8209ba0ebe75421299afa21.png

 

So a good proportion of a week of very warm weather still to come as from from today, taking us into the first few days of the first week of June - and then that underwhelming cool and possibly showery northerly incursion during week 2 of June leading to a steady improvement thereafter 

Continued assessment of the diagnostic and wind-flow budget vs NWP interpretation of these will be required in this very early part of the summer - but there continues to be nothing at this time to suggest a prolonged cool and unseasonal washout.

Enjoy this lovely weather and take in the sunshine vitamin to help wellbeing ?

 

Thanks for the update Tamara ?

So good to see you posting again ..

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...