Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think,with all due respect, a bit of perspective is needed,we have had virtually 7 to 8 weeks of dry settled weather.We don't reside in Spain or Greece afterall ..

Quite! It was another knee-jerk post that's for sure. We will get cooler and unsettled spells. Nothing concrete to suggest these are going to last and ruin the summer which hasn't even started.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

Quite! It was another knee-jerk post that's for sure. We will get cooler and unsettled spells. Nothing concrete to suggest these are going to last and ruin the summer which hasn't even started.

In fact, the excellent earlier post by @Tamara shows no support for a 2012 scenario.

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Said it yesterday and ill say it today, its an echo of 2012 in FI. Exactly what happened then when a trough squeezed in between two areas of high pressure and became stuck. 

My hopes for a 2018 repeat or at least a decent continuation of the warm and dry is eroding away at great pace. 
 

I can't see where you are coming from, to be honest, I cannot see any of this.  It is difficult to comment on the models at the moment, for me, and this is because in the reliable timeframe, it is continued high pressure and sunny weather, and in FI there is a change, potentially, but I can't in all honesty see any horror shows imminent!  So I am kind of refraining from commenting further until any pattern change gets firmed up, and trying, within the restrictions of lockdown, to enjoy the weather we currently have.  

For any further guidance on beyond one week, please read either @Tamara s excellent post earlier, or look at the MO contingency planners forecast.  

[Singularity]

Great input from Tamara, the overall indication echoing what I’ve been saying - an unsettled spell but then an improvement before long. Probably by the third week of the month.
 

With the AAM fall looking modest, I can see a good chance that high pressure doesn’t retreat far west from us, such that while it turns a fair bit cooler, it doesn’t rain all that much. GFS 12z depicts that well, despite going a bit bonkers with the intensity of the low to our SE.

ECM 00z seemed a consequence of over-amplification bias but we’ll see - the envelope of possibilities is fairly wide, within a general cooler theme.

[stodge]

Evening all

Awaiting the 12Z from ECM but GEM shifted even further to GFS this evening and looking at the main models at T+168 for a change:

That's GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control with ECM to come. 

IF (and it's still a big IF) this verifies, GFS has done really well. The OP has consistently over the past few days modelled the HP cell to the NW or West in mid Atlantic and the other models have at this stage come toward it. It's not a done deal of course and not only could the signal flip completely but it may be the HP will extend enough of a ridge eastward to keep most of the British Isles dry if cool. 

We await the ECM 12Z - I'd be surprised if it was a as dramatic as this morning's output which developed quite a vigorous little LP and ran it south across the British Isles.,

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I can't work out why some seem to lose there heads at the slightest bit of negative weather charts.. Its been beautiful for weeks, what's the big deal if we have a breakdown... Surely there has been worse things to worry about than this recently! We all have our own weather objectives and preferences, but surely we don't have to paint the worse case scenerio on it persistently. There could be a change later next week... For how long? Who knows... Thats if it even arrives. Gem looks a little OTT.. GFS shows the change to cooler conditions but know real certainty on rainfall amounts. But just that little bit deeper into fi... The GFS tends gradually rebuild heights again..so both the 6 and 12z mean brings this option now. So even if we breakdown, there is a good chance of a relatively quick resumption of good weather.. If we get rain next week, so be it.. Some places are crying out for it, our lawn is completely dead now. And I'm not one for using the hose and wasting it. 

Hey its summer loads to look forward to, and Considering the awful times over the last few months, and loss of life.... Let's all just embrace it and look forward to some  better times... Enjoy your evenings good folks.

Edited May 27, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Allseasons-Si]

Well spoken MATT^ and a very good post as always from Tamara too,love it ,some seem to think it's the end of the world in here sometimes,we like to post good charts fair enough and we have been posting them for the last couple of months and it's been an outstanding spell of weather and we still have several days of it to come

yes it looks to cool off somewhat as we go into next week,granted but a bit of variety in the weather from time to time is not all that bad is it really,summer is coming up soon and it feels like we have already had one,give me a bit of rain as i don't mind as it saves me from watering the garden daily

below is the 12z gefs ens and pressure charts and it shows that dip in temps and pressure but it looks temporary to me with a gradual incline in both accounts

looking at the NAO/AO and to me it doesn't scream zonality to me either and we would just have to withstand this standing wave pattern/wavelength for a bit until we see the MJO orbit out of the unfavorable cycle from 7/8/1 which would depict the signal in the models for the hp cell to be to the west of us in the Atlantic

so hang in there folks and enjoy the rest of this weeks and weekends weather and lets hope this blip next week is just that

 

 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Allseasons-si
spell correction

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM at 120,this is better...

where has that Icelandic low gone! plus better heights into the Atlantic and Scandinavia. 

Edit 144.

Edited May 27, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Zak M]

Yeah good 12z ECM @120

144 isn't too bad but it looks better for the south than the north.

[mb018538]

ECM day 7 - rain incoming!

[Methuselah]

So here we are...the 12Z ensembles are out, and it's a cooldown by Day 8ish. And, after that, it's what Toyah Wilcox might've called a mythterwy? God, how those punk-new wave affected lithpth got my goat!

    

    

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM day 7 - rain incoming!

The differences between this afternoons and this mornings ECM runs are laughable between days 5/6 really,as i stated above,no Icelandic low but yet we develop our own at day 7,the models are struggling as they always do from day 5.

[Guest]

ECM is not going to have a happy ending. Major northerly inbound. I know we've bad weeks of very usable weather and its highly likely this May could be the all-time sunniest month on record in Bournemouth but rubbish weather is rubbish and I don't like it. Was hoping TS Bertha might get caught up in the jet stream and stir things up but it looks like that wont happen so it looks like a cool and potentially changeable spell to kick of summer after the first day or two. Perfect timing for the kids going back to school..... 

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM is not going to have a happy ending. Major northerly inbound. I know we've bad weeks of very usable weather and its highly likely this May could be the all-time sunniest month on record in Bournemouth but rubbish weather is rubbish and I don't like it. Was hoping TS Bertha might get caught up in the jet stream and stir things up but it looks like that wont happen so it looks like a cool and potentially changeable spell to kick of summer after the first day or two. Perfect timing for the kids going back to school..... 

I don't know,the ECM at 216(well into fl i know)shifts that low some good 500 miles+ NE of what it was showing this morning

could this glancing blow miss us all together!!! 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Allseasons-si
correction

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM is not going to have a happy ending. Major northerly inbound. I know we've bad weeks of very usable weather and its highly likely this May could be the all-time sunniest month on record in Bournemouth but rubbish weather is rubbish and I don't like it. Was hoping TS Bertha might get caught up in the jet stream and stir things up but it looks like that wont happen so it looks like a cool and potentially changeable spell to kick of summer after the first day or two. Perfect timing for the kids going back to school..... 

I agree with part of this: bad weather is bad weather, and what comes before does not mark it any more bearable. However, the signs suggest that it won’t hang around for too long, nor will it be as extreme as some of the runs are indicating.

[mb018538]

ECM ends up ok - the 00z has the big low plonked on top Of the UK at day 10, tonight its a few hundred miles NE on top of our Scandinavian friends. Bit silly trying to glean too much at this range. FI chopping and changing wildly.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The models are obviously struggling... At 168hrs there is not a low to our North... 24hours later... And Boom one has spawned.. That's a little extreme. Perhaps signs of the High flexing it's muscles by day 10 also... Its certainly not a major unsettled spell though 

[Josh Rubio]

I mean it’s inevitable to have some ‘bad’ weather after weeks and weeks of settled and warm conditions. I don’t know if I’d even call it bad personally, just cooler and unsettled. 
 

I for one would not like it if this settled weather carried on all the way to July or August without any sort of breakdown as it would almost certainly cause droughts and hosepipe bans.

[MKN]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

ECM day 7 - rain incoming!

That wouldn't lead to much in the way of rain.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

As I said this morning. The low will get pushed further and further east. What ever day 9/10. It is nowhere near guaranteed. 

[sheikhy]

Theres that inevitable push further east on the ecm!!mainly dry and later on cool i think on the ecm!!

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensembles really turning the screw on the change to cooler, less settled weather by the end of next week. It will be hard to see this type of chart overturned, especially further north. 

But that's still 9 days away. The mean is warmer than the op throughout the first part of next week, so plenty of good weather likely in the near future, even if a bit of an east breeze tempers the warmth on the odd day for some. 

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Said it yesterday and ill say it today, its an echo of 2012 in FI. Exactly what happened then when a trough squeezed in between two areas of high pressure and became stuck. 

My hopes for a 2018 repeat or at least a decent continuation of the warm and dry is eroding away at great pace. 
 

One of the most dramatic posts I've ever read on this forum and that's saying something. 2018 wasn't warm all the way through by any means.

I distinctly remember a much cooler spell around the middle of June in 2018. 

This spring has been totally different to 2012 with very few parallels- so how you've come up with that comparison I have no idea.

[damianslaw]

Some good posts in here today. 

Models showing a continuation of the very fine late Spring weather, marking the end of what will have been in the main a very good Spring overall, despite the rather wet start in March. Who would have forecast such a dry Spring in February when we were deluged.. don't think I read any forecasts suggesting such a dry Spring - would be good to know factors behind the dry warm sunny weather.. and the abrupt change that happened in March - the atlantic caught the virus it seems!

The models continue to show a change as we move into June, high pressure becoming stretched the weak spot to our east, and hence heights will build out to our west as we see a disturbance to our NW, and remnants of the PV trough joining hands with the trough to the SW. A cooler northerly influence end result, no clear signal how much rain may fall, or how deep the trough becomes and pressure lowers, but yes something quite different to how the end of this week will turn out.

Interesting to note how our Spring has seen a consistent pattern, ridge over and to the east of the UK most of the time, but on 2 occasions backed west to pull down a cool N feed, late March and mid May, think we had one in April but that was tempered somewhat. How long this pattern continues very uncertain, as we move into Summer proper other factors get in the mix, notably the development of tropical storms which can disrupt the pattern quite quickly - but the volatility doesn't tend to show its hand until late June, so perhaps we can expect another temporary cooler blip before a resumption of further warm dry sunny weather before end of June - before perhaps a more notable change as ENSO and developments over the tropics begin to take over (trending more unsettled - heights in the wrong place for sustained warmth~), but we shall see.

 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Evening/morning all. Seen a lot of different opinions in here today. Been busy all day so didn't really see the 12z or this forum. Been a lot of people throwing Teddy's out of pram looking at the so called northerly incursion trend. That's all it is a trend. Its still over 8 days away which is an hell of a long time in weather. My thoughts from the 18z pub run and ensembles are the op shows plenty warm/very warm even some hot temps before mid next week with plenty clear sky's and no rain until at least mid next week after the gfs op shows a low drop south thru the weakening ridge. Which drops temp down average or just slightly below for about 36hrs until the low bringsin warmer air from the S. E. As it drops into France/Spain forget about after that for now. Doesnt sound too bad to me. OK on to the ensemble. Maybe just under half of the members follow the op bringing in about - 2 850s. 5 bring in 850s of about 5/6 and the rest bring in high 850s above 10.so I'm not entirely convinced that the cooler/unsettled from mid next week is certain and even if it does its only looking very very brief. Roll on the 00z P. S @Tamara great post thank you. I'm getting better at this lol

18z ens not bad at all

Edited May 28, 2020 by weathermadbarnsleylad
Missed pic