Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Neil Harris]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I fear you may be correct - sadly, under current economic conditions, we really don't need an agricultural collapse.

I was watching a horse racing programme earlier.

A trainer was asked about ground conditions, he said that one of his owners is a farmer, he pays a lot of money for weather advice, no appreciable rain until September in the South is the thought. Wheat prices are rocketing. Serious drought.

 

Not sure if models back this?

[mb018538]

34 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Yes, a low height anomaly to the West of Iberia was a persistent feature during June 2018 and the ECM had it this morning too, let's hope it remains.

It did, but you need the high in the right place to benefit. The end of the ecm chart is all wrong for that in my opinion.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Neil Harris said:

I was watching a horse racing programme earlier.

A trainer was asked about ground conditions, he said that one of his owners is a farmer, he pays a lot of money for weather advice, no appreciable rain until September in the South is the thought. Wheat prices are rocketing. Serious drought.

 

Not sure if models back this?

Sounds speculative that far out, but it's plausible, albeit unlikely.

[Mike Poole]

Yes I know I said I was done for the day, but I don't think the boredom / alcohol thing with lockdown has been researched properly...hic!  

ICON 18z T120 v 12z at T126:

Trough feature digging in deeper here, so more likely (based on having watched other runs) that the cut off low scenario actually happens....we will see....

[shaky]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Yes I know I said I was done for the day, but I don't think the boredom / alcohol thing with lockdown has been researched properly...hic!  

ICON 18z T120 v 12z at T126:

Trough feature digging in deeper here, so more likely (based on having watched other runs) that the cut off low scenario actually happens....we will see....

Upgrade to me on the latest 18z!!trough digs much further south!!!heights slightly further west!!

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, Neil Harris said:

I was watching a horse racing programme earlier.

A trainer was asked about ground conditions, he said that one of his owners is a farmer, he pays a lot of money for weather advice, no appreciable rain until September in the South is the thought. Wheat prices are rocketing. Serious drought.

 

Not sure if models back this?

Impossible to forecast another 4 months in advance! I’d be amazed if it’s bone dry that long after the last 3 months.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 minutes ago, Neil Harris said:

I was watching a horse racing programme earlier.

A trainer was asked about ground conditions, he said that one of his owners is a farmer, he pays a lot of money for weather advice, no appreciable rain until September in the South is the thought. Wheat prices are rocketing. Serious drought.

 

Not sure if models back this?

 

9 hours ago, MATT said:

Its gonna keep pushing it back Zak... All the way til September 4th..

I must have a crystal ball.. I mentioned this earlier today.. Punxsutawney Phil says 4 more months of Sun.. 

Edited May 24, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, Neil Harris said:

I was watching a horse racing programme earlier.

A trainer was asked about ground conditions, he said that one of his owners is a farmer, he pays a lot of money for weather advice, no appreciable rain until September in the South is the thought. Wheat prices are rocketing. Serious drought.

 

Not sure if models back this?

First thing, there won't be a drought this year, and that is because the reservoirs and groundwater resources will have been filled to the brim during the horrid wet winter, the groundwater resources don't top up much in summer anyway, water evaporates before it gets there.   

So yes, I think, a dry June is to come, possibly first half of July, but we should be able to cope with that.   Cope with it far more than we can with marmalizing  the economy , but that is for a different thread....

[Cheshire Freeze]

40 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Impossible to forecast another 4 months in advance! I’d be amazed if it’s bone dry that long after the last 3 months.

As I perused the 12z suite, I got definite hints of retrogression towards day 10. I think that is the end game and a signal that, although pushed back, will not go away.

So I'd think there is a decent chance of a wet spell coming up some time over the next 2-3 weeks.

 

[Mike Poole]

Well GFS T156 is just a complete mess, wish I hadn't stayed up to watch it:

See you in the morning ....edit, sorry, afternoon...

Edited May 24, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As I perused the 12z suite, I got definite hints of retrogression towards day 10. I think that is the end game and a signal that, although pushed back, will not go away.

So I'd think there is a decent chance of a wet spell coming up some time over the next 2-3 weeks.

 

As long as it stays pushed back, it won’t happen!

Am not saying you’re wrong, but we keep hearing that the background signals don’t support it.

[Leo97t]

The last 20 Gfs Ops have all out up heights to the nw and therefore a more northerly - I think this is the direction we are headed - it's just too persistent to ignore at this point 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

2 hours ago, Leo97t said:

The last 20 Gfs Ops have all out up heights to the nw and therefore a more northerly - I think this is the direction we are headed - it's just too persistent to ignore at this point 

Yes op always showing signs of that happening. But the ens don't seem that interested. Gfs op always seems an outlier at the moment. I don't trust it especially tonight's 18z I think it's been smoking that green stuff with a few beers. The 00z will be a total different option. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Decent support for it turning more unsettled towards the turn of the month within the 18z GEFS

Make the most of the next week is my advice, should be some really nice weather to enjoy.

[Frosty.]

Morning all,

Well, most of the Gfs 0z operational is dominated by high pressure / strong ridging until it goes off the rails deeper into low res (cooler or much cooler & more unsettled) and although there are similar signs on some of the GEFS 0z members, on balance there are more which are decent longer term which is reflected by a generally better mean with more Azores influence in the vicinity of the u k..in the meantime, the week ahead is looking very nice for the majority, very summery!
 

 

[Guest]

Seems like this morning there is pretty decent agreement T120-144 that our resident high will migrate further north east than indicated over the last few days, could be quite a keen wind coming into the south east at times. Again the gfs Ops comes up with an extreme solution in FI, although not without Some support from its ensembles. 

[Man With Beard]

Interesting to see ECM and UKMO at odds over the level of warmth next weekend, for the second run in a row. UKMO probably 4 to 6 degrees cooler. ECM still thinking about something in the high 20s.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Man With Beard

[Methuselah]

Aye peeps, the GFS (00Z) op's very persistent in wanting temperatures to 'fall off a cliff' at Day 11...The thing is, though, it's been predicted for Day 11 since forever!

    

    

But I'd never entirely rule it out; after all, June can be a somewhat schizophrenic month?

[carinthian]

Excellent to see Blighty emerging yet again as the centre of the developing high cell. Models seem to hold it around the British Isles for most of the week, 5 days at least. Not so good again in the Eastern Alps, cool conditions continue and yes plenty of snow showers in the mountains this morning, settling at 2000m.

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Talk of 30C should be flushed down the toilet for May - well and truly gone now. (It was never on though to start with)

I think when it comes to the ECM/UKMO...we know who is going to come out on top here. 

Latest UKMO from Thursday to Sunday:

 

So I would say on current output the best/warmest weather will be in the South East today, tomorrow and Wednesday - temperatures hitting 24/25/26C! Lovely stuff.

High teens/low 20’s for many other parts and then from Thursday low 20’s for the majority (London area included) of the UK and Ireland. (Even for me! )

So a fine/warm final week of Spring for many of us - bank! 

Have a great week everyone and enjoy the weather! 

Edited May 25, 2020 by Mr Frost

[MikeC53]

5 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Decent support for it turning more unsettled towards the turn of the month within the 18z GEFS

Make the most of the next week is my advice, should be some really nice weather to enjoy.

I think you have been talking about Atlantic/Greenland Highs and unsettled weather for the UK since early April and we are now at the end of May so I'm happy to see the unsettled conditions remain in 'FI'

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

I think you have been talking about Atlantic/Greenland Highs and unsettled weather for the UK since early April and we are now at the end of May so I'm happy to see the unsettled conditions remain in 'FI'

Yep, you're right, I have. 

FOR SUMMER.

I was merely pointing out what the GEFS were showing...and I only did that because I'd bothered to look for the first time in yonks.

Edited May 25, 2020 by CreweCold

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

I think you have been talking about Atlantic/Greenland Highs and unsettled weather for the UK since early April and we are now at the end of May so I'm happy to see the unsettled conditions remain in 'FI'

A certain well known forecaster was constantly posting on twitter about how the middle and second half of May would be much more unsettled....that never happened. I guess if you keep saying the same thing, eventually you’ll be right.

Hard to know exactly where we end up. There’s still big differences at day 5 at the moment, so later on is difficult to say with accuracy.

[MikeC53]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

A certain well known forecaster was constantly posting on twitter about how the middle and second half of May would be much more unsettled....that never happened. I guess if you keep saying the same thing, eventually you’ll be right.

Hard to know exactly where we end up. There’s still big differences at day 5 at the moment, so later on is difficult to say with accuracy.

Yes, if it were winter we would not be confident of 'retrogression' of a High at T240 plus hours so there is no cause to now either...the GFS/ECM/GEM are all fine at day 9 with a low height anomaly close to Iberia. 

[Djdazzle]

ICON 6z 120:

More like the ECM with more of a southerly influence.