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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Those sort of set ups don’t tend to bring any heat. Looks showery and warm-ish to me. Be interested to see how that fits into the ecm ensemble given it’s so different to this mornings run!

Yeah, maybe, I knew there was a reason I gave up the frame by frame ECM commentary, it is because I'm crap at it.  24hrs between frames is often too difficult to predict.  So why am I doing it again, simple, boredom, it is something to do at 7pm every night, so expect more rubbish commentary from me, as it is part of my lockdown day now, maybe I'll try and do it in the style of a celebrity sports commentator tomorrow...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Hi Gang ,certainly some welcome rain for some this week ,cooler just to remind us that its only mid Spring ,but a signal for a warm up again later in the extended charts .Right gang i havent posted mu

As a brief update, this is still the case ?     The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the who

Sorry for the slight off topic mods but if you don't mind... I am so so glad that you have found a companion mate after your loss and i wish you all the best for the future whether it be a new lo

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26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Messy T192, should recover though, and we do need the rain, so I'm told.  Here, we had enough in the winter, thanks!

image.thumb.jpg.33fac8bdab85159807cce3d9b5cb13fa.jpg

It's May, I'm using a well, a submersible pump, a 1000 litre storage tank (filled weekly, since the downpipe is doing sod all to help) and a hose with a pump for pressure. Just to water a small veg patch and a couple of borders. The grass on the lawn is turning yellow and brown, already! 

Some kind of change, ideally towards exciting and perhaps torrential convective downpours would be greatly appreciated... 

... I suspect this pattern might hold on longer than an unelected official in high-office! 

?

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yeah, maybe, I knew there was a reason I gave up the frame by frame ECM commentary, it is because I'm crap at it.  24hrs between frames is often too difficult to predict.  So why am I doing it again, simple, boredom, it is something to do at 7pm every night, so expect more rubbish commentary from me, as it is part of my lockdown day now, maybe I'll try and do it in the style of a celebrity sports commentator tomorrow...

I wasn’t having a pop or anything, just my twopence worth! You can see if you follow the 850 charts from day 6-10 how as that upper trough and low moves into Western Europe, the heat gets squashed right back down to the southern edges of Europe. 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I wasn’t having a pop or anything, just my twopence worth! You can see if you follow the 850 charts from day 6-10 how as that upper trough and low moves into Western Europe, the heat gets squashed right back down to the southern edges of Europe. 

Fair point, I hadn't checked the 850s and you are of course right.  I definitely got that one wrong.

Edited by Mike Poole
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8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I wasn’t having a pop or anything, just my twopence worth! You can see if you follow the 850 charts from day 6-10 how as that upper trough and low moves into Western Europe, the heat gets squashed right back down to the southern edges of Europe. 

Surprised to see ECM moving toward GFS - well, up to a point. Nowhere near as extreme a solution as the 12Z OP but a clear indication of what I said earlier. As the first HP retreats further east and the British Isles falls out of its influence we need the Azores HP to be ridging in as quickly as possible to maintain a settled picture.

If not, as we see on the ECM 12Z at T+192, the trough fills the gap from the south and we get a breakdown to a more unsettled weather type. The HP tries to build in again by T+240 but is further NW with the trough's influence closer to the SE. This is how wet Junes can occur - the "European Monsoon" as someone called it and there's a hint of the Indian Sub-Continent about how the heat builds up and then pressure drops and the rains come.

As we saw in 2007 and 2012, if you get warm water over the North Atlantic that can encourage blocking scenarios to the north and allow trough formation and development over western Europe with large amounts of rain.

I'm not saying June 2020 will go the same way at all this time but I'd be looking at the European trough and hoping the Azores HP doesn't ridge too far north and north west.

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ECM mean:

anim_dkb7.gif

Well while there may be a window for something untoward to happen around T168, we're left at T240 with an Azores ridge heading for Scandi, what's not to like?

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The warmth for the coming week has been moderated by high pressure being ever so slightly west of the UK, particularly in the east after midweek. Not done and dusted in my book though - still potential for the high to be pushed easy a little earlier - which would add several degrees to the east coast on Thursday / Friday, although possibly a faster breakdown next weekend. 

Generally nationwide daily maximums look like being 25-28C after Monday, fluctuating as little injections of North Sea get into the system - generally in the low to mid twenties for all. 

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Posted (edited)

Good lord you guys are like Greace lightning.. I've only been away a few hours, and it's taken me half an hour just to catch up with your posts.. ? The ECM mean I feel is better than the op.. We are almost seeing an Azores.. Scandy High link up! I think we all new deep down the mean would be better.. Enjoy your evenings.. ?

EDM1-96.gif

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EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

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EDM1-240.gif

d7a4ba4245be2a2bbecd05dc64192331.gif

Edited by MATT☀️
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4 minutes ago, legritter said:

Good evening gang .I have been lurking around .its now 10 weeks of isolation for me being vulnerable ,but great that my lady friend as been here with me .well todays weather as blown my runner beans over ,they are in pots .well looking at current charts no heatwave, and in the further outlook medium some heat generated rain  .Do i want a long hot summer !! ,No Thanks ,that in itself will give all of us Grief on top of grief . Thanks for all of those posters who have kept this forum going ,Clap Clap , take care all ,cheers .

10 weeks of isolation is not so bad... 10 weeks of isolation with your new lady friend.. Is Heaven. ? I wish I had your obvious charm with the ladies mate... Brill stuff though, I'm aware you've had some ruff times of late... And you deserve some good fortune. Its good to see you dropping in occasionally though, all the best my man and stay safe.. ?

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Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.1a910d3bbc2d35a8834a0d71c5d657a2.png

 

ECM op out of the ensemble pack, but a definite trend to lower pressure to end the month. How and what that will bring is still up for debate!

Edited by mb018538
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55 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The warmth for the coming week has been moderated by high pressure being ever so slightly west of the UK, particularly in the east after midweek. Not done and dusted in my book though - still potential for the high to be pushed easy a little earlier - which would add several degrees to the east coast on Thursday / Friday, although possibly a faster breakdown next weekend. 

Generally nationwide daily maximums look like being 25-28C after Monday, fluctuating as little injections of North Sea get into the system - generally in the low to mid twenties for all. 

Yes it’s just trended west enough in the last couple of days to probably knock temperatures down a few degrees. At one point 30c looked on. Maybe 26/27/28c tops, but still to be determined.

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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Yes it’s just trended west enough in the last couple of days to probably knock temperatures down a few degrees. At one point 30c looked on. Maybe 26/27/28c tops, but still to be determined.

Which isn't too shabby in May!

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Which isn't too shabby in May!

Absolutely not. Fantastic for May....I’d take that in June, July and August too! The big heat can be a bit soupy. This is just fine!

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ICON 18z at T120 compared with T126 on 12z

image.thumb.jpg.519b6ee9931535cd8c7e453d17d7d525.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a09f7390539e3c4fd1f1d399d307c1c5.jpg

More amplification (follow the green yellow transition), trough deeper in region of cool SSTs, edging towards a summer spell to remember, 

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21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.1a910d3bbc2d35a8834a0d71c5d657a2.png

 

ECM op out of the ensemble pack, but a definite trend to lower pressure to end the month. How and what that will bring is still up for debate!

Massive outlier by 10mb!!!expect improvements on the 00z maybe!!overall brilliant output tonight if sunny and warm is your thing!!

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23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Absolutely not. Fantastic for May....I’d take that in June, July and August too! The big heat can be a bit soupy. This is just fine!

Exactly, above average temps for all three summer months!  I too prefer pleasantly warm to exceptional heat.

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10 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

18z gfs upgrade in temps for Thursday next week now 25oC. Gfs 12z showed 19oC. 

ukmaxtemp.png

27/28c easily from that chart!

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Yeah defo upgrade on the 18z run

10c uppers now present in England, temperatures will easily climb into the high twenties

h850t850eu.png

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2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Yeah defo upgrade on the 18z run

10c uppers now present in England, temperatures will easily climb into the high twenties

h850t850eu.png

Tis the pub run though.

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