Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Djdazzle]

ECM mean shows a very watered-down northerly.

[Skullzrulerz]

Haven't seen this much excitement since winter loving the posts here

[mb018538]

No real surprise to see this mornings extreme looking ECM op sticking out like a sore thumb.

[Djdazzle]

A bit surreal that we are chasing RAIN in this thread. But increasingly, it’s looking like there will be very little. Signs on ECM mean of a pressure rise towards the end.

[sheikhy]

17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

No real surprise to see this mornings extreme looking ECM op sticking out like a sore thumb.

Not surprised at all!!!gfs and ukmo have improved on the 00z but ecm went the other way!!expect a watered down version of the northerly on 12z maybe!!!!

[carinthian]

Morning all, hope the UKMO at 144h is correct. Looks less progressive towards a Northerly incursion into the heart of the British Isles than some of the other models.  Rain in the form of convective showers look possible for southern areas under the influence of a rather warm continental cyclonic flow ,similar to what ICON model was showing this time yesterday. I suppose there is still quite a bit of doubt regarding a UK breakdown and source of airmass. However, from a  Eastern Alps persective, hope to lose those cold temps being located on the wrong side of the high cell . Still only 3 c in the village and a snow patch in the garden likely to survive to the first month of summer ! Enjoy your warmth and sunshine this weekend I blighty !

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

A bit surreal that we are chasing RAIN in this thread. 

Indeed - especially as it rains most of the year in the UK. 

Summer 2019:

 

Autumn 2019:

 

Winter 2019/20:

 

The rain will come again soon and then we will all be moaning after a few days of it - the joys of a UK and Ireland weather enthusiast. 

I agree with others regarding the Northerly not being very potent UK wide (when/if it arrives!) - Met Office going for 14/15C here for June 5th...

Latest ECM delivers this for the same timeframe...

 

Snow depth charts for @lassie23 

 

Anyways - I’m off to enjoy a day of sunshine and 23/24C! 

Have a good weekend everyone! 

Edited May 30, 2020 by Mr Frost

[northwestsnow]

So, some kind of Northerly looks nailed on.

Polar opposite to Winter, i want a toppler lol.

 

[Singularity]

Complicated setup mid-next week, lows to the south and north with lower (unstable) and upper (stable) convergence zones to be figured out.

UKMO and GFS place the upper convergence across most of the UK and never fully get the lower convergence in across the south. Quite the rain-dodge for many if it transpires that way!

ECM persists with an alternative route in which the low to the south centres further east, allowing the flow to align with that of the low to the north and create one large circulation with an unusually chilly flow across the UK for 2-3 days. Plausible, but not a well-supported solution in the 00z suite. GFS has only just moved away from such a solution though, so it’s worth keeping an open mind to it.

[Leo97t]

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC...

 

Extremely confident sounding update from the BBC this morning

[ChannelThunder]

27 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC...

 

Extremely confident sounding update from the BBC this morning

Strange how they can sound so confident, at a time when models are seemingly all over the shop and unreliable beyond 4 days!

[Zak M]

2 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Strange how they can sound so confident, at a time when models are seemingly all over the shop and unreliable beyond 4 days!

I was going to say.

I was surprised when they said that there's a risk of thunderstorms moving up from France on Thursday. We don't even get thunderstorms anymore 

[Zak M]

Anyway, back to the models - 

Most models are starting to shift the plunge a bit to the east. This means that we will still see temperatures below average, but afterwards most models are showing high pressure dominating again

06z GFS is starting to come out - we will see what happens next.

[NTC]

42 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC...

 

Extremely confident sounding update from the BBC this morning

According to Ben Rich at the end of the weather online forecast video he says rain even possibly to the south, so how come he thinks it will rain but the person who wrote the online weather says patchy rain over Scotland

 

[Djdazzle]

27 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Strange how they can sound so confident, at a time when models are seemingly all over the shop and unreliable beyond 4 days!

It is odd  Maybe they have confidence in the longer term signals. It’s a very brave call in my opinion, but there is some evidence to support it.

Edited May 30, 2020 by Djdazzle

[northwestsnow]

I hadn't looked in much detail at precip on the 00z runs but BBC RAW has wed as a wet day locally and thats your lot with a very dry( but cooler) outlook.

 

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, NTC said:

According to Ben Rich at the end of the weather online forecast video he says rain even possibly to the south, so how come he thinks it will rain but the person who wrote the online weather says patchy rain over Scotland

 

Patchy rain from a cold front in the North; thundery rain from France in the South? It's getting more complicated by the day!

    

Edited May 30, 2020 by General Cluster
Forgot charts!

[Djdazzle]

GF6 6z effectively cancels the northerly!

[Mike Poole]

49 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Strange how they can sound so confident, at a time when models are seemingly all over the shop and unreliable beyond 4 days!

Well, some of us on here have been confident about the same evolution for a while now.  Let's see if it happens!

GFS 6z out to T192:

It looks cooler as the winds come from a northerly direction, but looks like it is just the one low on this run, the more complex trough is held at bay by the ridge returning.

Edited May 30, 2020 by Mike Poole
Problems with the GIF I embedded, replaced with T192 chart.

[MikeC53]

32 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Anyway, back to the models - 

Most models are starting to shift the plunge a bit to the east. This means that we will still see temperatures below average, but afterwards most models are showing high pressure dominating again

06z GFS is starting to come out - we will see what happens next.

That nearly always happen, the set-up was quite complicated and people were assuming a very cold northerly before the Low had even formed. I think in this instance the UKMO with it's T144 limit has been the best model to follow.

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z, at T+252, looks like a repeat of what we've already seen umpteen times before, but with Uppers 4-5C warmer...?

    

Which, given the ever-dwindling supply of cold air, isn't really all that surprising.

Edited May 30, 2020 by General Cluster

[lassie23]

2 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Indeed - especially as it rains most of the year in the UK. 

Summer 2019:

 

Autumn 2019:

 

Winter 2019/20:

 

The rain will come again soon and then we will all be moaning after a few days of it - the joys of a UK and Ireland weather enthusiast. 

I agree with others regarding the Northerly not being very potent UK wide (when/if it arrives!) - Met Office going for 14/15C here for June 5th...

Latest ECM delivers this for the same timeframe...

 

Snow depth charts for @lassie23 

 

Anyways - I’m off to enjoy a day of sunshine and 23/24C! 

Have a good weekend everyone! 

Thanks for the snow depth charts, looks like i can fit in some late season skiing.

[johnholmes]

I thnk it needs to be remembered that whilst many of the faces on BBC TV forecasts are trained Met Office weather forecasters the data they have is not from the Met Office but Meteo Weather since the Met Office last its contract with BBC tv.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

26 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I thnk it needs to be remembered that whilst many of the faces on BBC TV forecasts are trained Met Office weather forecasters the data they have is not from the Met Office but Meteo Weather since the Met Office last its contract with BBC tv.

Yes John, the data is courtesy of Meteogroup, which I believe is of Netherlands decent. But they tend to be singing from the same hym sheet as the met regarding the return of settled Conditions. 

Going on the ECM mean we clearly see a cooler period later next week, it doesn't really look overly cold though away from the North and East.... There will be showers and these will be more likely towards those areas mentioned above. W/SW areas probably remaing drier throughout.. Perhaps 15-16c at this stage for temps in those areas.. This looks like a shortlived affair, just like the last cooler spell from the other week.. Pressure looks to be on the rise again soon after... With an increase in temperatures soon to follow.. And these ridges tend to be sticking around for some time... All in all its looking good... 

Enjoy a gr8 weekend folks.. Suncream and beers at the ready.. If your having a barbi.. Try not to set fire to your neighbours fence...

Edited May 30, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Djdazzle]

GFS 6z mean also supportive of a very limp northerly. It’s like winter all over again, except this time most folk will be pleased! Of more concern is that there is little or no rain after any showers this week, and even they look like being very hit-and-miss.