Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z certainly shows a cooler blip..but that’s all it is..a blip, thereafter the mean shows recovery to warmer less unsettled conditions once again..enjoy the rest of this gorgeous summery spell!..anyway, that’s me muzzled until tomorrow..bye for now gang.

 

Edited May 29, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

Och we'ell: back from another absolutely wonderful (wall-to-wall sunshine and 18C) day on the farm, expecting to see a doomladen GFS 06Z, with day after day of low-teen maxes...And this is it?! It's a very young cat!

    

And what about les ensembles? Oh dear, the op is one of the coldest runs. Again...

    

    

But, will it rain? I sure hope so! And thanks to @Tamara for preempting any mass panic attacks!

 

 

[Mike Poole]

ICON 12z makes quite a meal of this trough, but it looks as though the high pressure will ridge over the top and take control once it dissipates, things can be slow moving at this time of year, so on this run it may take until mid month, but that is the direction of travel, I think.  T144 and T180:

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

Tamara you are like a nurse, always good at numbing headaches and pains that these model runs create. 
. So yes i feel this is may just be a short lived cool blip after all. Blink and you'll miss it . 

That's the calmest and stress free I've seen you for a while mate.. The sunshine must be doing you good..  

A little word on the ICON.. we bring in low pressure which anchors to the South.. The end result is more of an Estly type feed.. And it looks to remain warm even out to next weekend. The weather here as been sublime,but I can't help but notice how more mixed and cooler it's been around Europe. Even the Greek Isles not matching our conditions, and the Spanish islands know better.. Its a good job we have travel restrictions in place, because at this rate we may have most of Europe wanting to come here for there Holidays this year.. I think I'm gonna open a boarding house.. 

Gr8 post from Tams as always.. Its fab to have someone with so much inside knowledge of Background signals, and for her to share them with us on here. It takes a long time to put those posts together. And I won't just single out Tamara here.. We have Steve M to name but a few who give us a great insight into conditions further ahead, that makes this site one hell of a tuff act to follow anywhere. 

Enjoy the weekend folks... It looks glorious.. And keep well. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Mark wheeler]

4 hours ago, Tamara said:

As a brief update, this is still the case    

The perspective of this apparent "pattern change" requires being seen as a snapshot in time on current NWP modelling - not a prediction for the whole of the rest of June or indeed the rest of the summer to come.

Extended numerical model ensemble data just starting to reflect a return of upstream momentum to shunt the retracted Atlantic ridge back eastwards sometime around the mid month period. For example here is the EC weekly update for week 3.

         

 

So a good proportion of a week of very warm weather still to come as from from today, taking us into the first few days of the first week of June - and then that underwhelming cool and possibly showery northerly incursion during week 2 of June leading to a steady improvement thereafter 

Continued assessment of the diagnostic and wind-flow budget vs NWP interpretation of these will be required in this very early part of the summer - but there continues to be nothing at this time to suggest a prolonged cool and unseasonal washout.

Enjoy this lovely weather and take in the sunshine vitamin to help wellbeing

 

Thanks Tamara , Keep posting your posts are so informative.

Kind Regards 

Mark 

[Djdazzle]

Massive difference at 144 between UKMO and GFS. This is still nowhere near being sorted.

[Djdazzle]

GFS is vile beyond belief. One of the worst summer runs you will ever see. (from 144 to 216)

Edited May 29, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS is vile beyond belief. One of the worst summer runs you will ever see. (from 144 to 216)

Maybe, but it is a blip!  On all models it seems, the way out is there at T240 on GFS as high pressure gradually reasserts itself, as per expectations:

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Maybe, but it is a blip!  On all models it seems, the way out is there at T240 on GFS as high pressure gradually reasserts itself, as per expectations:

We need to get that HP further east. Baby steps. . .

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

We need to get that HP further east. Baby steps. . .

Hopefully as @Tamara alluded to earlier, global momentum patterns should start to push that high back towards the UK towards mid month. Models may not pick this up at range, but may react closer to the time. I hope so. A blip is ok, a 2019 June repeat isn’t!

[clark3r]

Hmmm think we should wait for the breakdown to actually take place before worrying about June being a write off, even after day 6 is often hard to predict. With a calm Atlantic I don’t think any unsettled spell will last too long 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Hmmm think we should wait for the breakdown to actually take place before worrying about June being a write off, even after day 6 is often hard to predict. With a calm Atlantic I don’t think any unsettled spell will last too long 

Agreed. On the flip side, however, is that with a quiet Atlantic, patterns are more likely to get stuck for a bit. But as others have said, the unsettled spell may not last too long.

[Guest]

The GFS 12z Ops run through the middle of next week is another massive cold, wet outlier in the south at least. The rest of the ensemble group don’t really introduce colder conditions until Thursday or even Friday.

Edited May 29, 2020 by Guest

[Frosty.]

Reading between the lines I don’t expect the longer term outlook to be as pish as the Gfs 12z op shows with the u k attracting troughs like flies to s@#£..I fully expect a strong bounce back to at least decent summer conditions towards / during / beyond mid June..perhaps something exceptional again..as we have currently!..bye for now

Edited May 29, 2020 by JON SNOW

[summer blizzard]

Despite my belief in the long term prospects of this summer being less than stellar I'm with Frosty and Tamara for June. The signal for a continued pressure build around the UK was quite strong.

[Mike Poole]

Here's the GEM run, and this illustrates perfectly what I think will actually happen:

Yes, a blip, and maybe quite slow moving, but the ridge is coming back, for sure!  (I think).  

[mb018538]

 

Anyone else getting a bit tired of the GFS op run being so badly out of line recently? Even by its own low standards, that’s a shocker again.

[Frosty.]

57 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Reading between the lines I don’t expect the longer term outlook to be as pish as the Gfs 12z op shows with the u k attracting troughs like flies to s@#£..I fully expect a strong bounce back to at least decent summer conditions towards / during / beyond mid June..perhaps something exceptional again..as we have currently!..bye for now

Well, I made this post above before the GEFS 12z rolled out but you can kind of see where I’m coming from although I admit I am being a bit selective here..some very good signs though for sure following the cooler / changeable blip..the last post from me today..not by choice..bugle at the ready!!

Edited May 29, 2020 by JON SNOW

[damianslaw]

41 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Despite my belief in the long term prospects of this summer being less than stellar I'm with Frosty and Tamara for June. The signal for a continued pressure build around the UK was quite strong.

Agree the pattern we've been in since mid March doesn't look like changing anytime soon, another northerly incursion on the cards, then back to ridge dominating as we progress through into second half of June. I suspect any concerted pattern change courtesy of effects of seasonal wavelengths, tropical factors and ENSO won't kick in until end June at earliest.. chances of more sustained unsettled conditions more likely thereafter. 

[MildCarlilse]

10 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Friday 29 may update on 500 mb anomaly charts

Ec-gfs both similar, marked troughs w and e’ern seaboard n America and ridging to give n of w flow for uk with marked trough over uk and n sea. Not a good upper air profile if anyone wants warmth!

Noaa similar so this looks like our main kind of upper air chart in the 7-10 day time frame? Sadly noaa also keeps this sort of pattern in its 8-14 day chart

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

I will stick with this.

[Guest]

I just wonder if there’s a few more twists yet to come, the NHC are increasing chances of a sub tropical storm forming in the Atlantic, could throw in extra confusion. 

[Daniel*]

ECM follows GFS lead with no heat midweek,,rather disappointing weather, maybe gfs op was a trend setter...

[Leo97t]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM follows GFS lead with no heat midweek,,rather disappointing weather, maybe gfs op was a trend setter...

Are we seeing the same charts the ECM extends the warmth to Friday at least 

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Are we seeing the same charts the ECM extends the warmth to Friday at least 

Seeing next frame it’s not so bad, but definitely notably cooler than 00z and faster with it like GFS.

[mb018538]

ECM is very placid tonight - the day 6/7 charts aren’t threatening at all with a gentle northerly, and not even cold.