Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[shaky]

One thing that is concerning is there seems to be strong support for maybe not overly wet conditions but quite cold weather after day 10!!lets hope we see a downgrade on this over the next couple of days!!until then enjoy the heat!

[Zak M]

27 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

No flaming June on the GFS 18z at the end of this run its nothing else but flaming cold and unsettled. Temps in single digits for Central parts & London, yes SINGLE digits at 12z on 11th June. 

 

I think there's more of a chance of me becoming the prime minister than that chart verifying out at day 15. 

[Frosty.]

Well..there are some charts from the GEFS 0z in early June that would have coldies swooning..if it was winter..but I’m not going to show those!!!!...instead here are some better ones..well, at least warmer ones!!!!!!!!

In the meantime, enjoy the rest of this week, it’s certainly a cracker for the majority!

Edited May 27, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Man With Beard]

ECM and GFS this morning both agreeing on next Thursday being the main day of change to something cooler, but very different in how, GFS pushing high pressure back in but the ECM looks like turning unsettled. Long way to run as to be expected. Headline for the reliable remains - lots of warm weather to come with low risk of rain. 

[Djdazzle]

ECM likely to be a big outlier with its development. Totally different from the 12z.

[Guest]

Models really not in good place this morning, massive differences by D8, GFS now has under the warmest conditions of the year to date with maxes approaching 30C across a wide portion of the south (decent support from its ensembles) and no real breakdown until D9/10, meanwhile at D8 ECM has low pressure with an associated trough aggressively tracking south which turns into a true horror show, the ECM D10 chart is as bad as you can get in summer, period, no exaggeration. GFS then I think actually offers a more realistic option with the trough less deep and further east than ECM. GEM & ICON more closely aligned with GFS IMO, UKMO hard to tell but appears to be closer to the ECM solutions. Place you bets!!

[Methuselah]

This morning's GFS 00Z wants to pull down a northerly wind on Day 8; a tad earlier than yesterday's run (I think?) but still outside the reliable time-frame:

    

But, for whatever reason, I'm unable to view the GEFS ensembles, just now.

Edit: I've done my daily excursion into the BBC's 14-day forecast (for NR34) and that comes up with variable amounts of sunshine, daily maxes between 17 and 22C...and absolutely no rain!

Edited May 27, 2020 by General Cluster

[mb018538]

 

ECM miles out of line, but a trend to more unsettled is still clear to see on the ensembles.

 

Edited May 27, 2020 by mb018538

[johnholmes]

Update on 6-10 day outlook based on using 500 mb anomaly charts?

? as they are showing some differences so less confidence than usual

Wed 27 May

Yesterday all 3 had very similar predicted patterns, much as noaa shows, today?

Ec-gfs has ec with marked trough with the ridge and +ve heights well west, so pretty unsettled looking chart. Gfs shows +ve heights and ridging from eastern seaboard all across atlantic into uk area with flow n of w (this bit at least similar to ec flow) and cut off low beneath the ridge.

Noaa shows troughing down eastern seaboard then marked ne ridging from about 40 w towards uk (+ve anomaly 210+ dm) with uk in flat ‘col’ no contours at all and upper low off Iberia.

Until all 3 show very similar best to adopt wait and see. Usuall noaa is nearest so this would imply, perhaps, a showery set up, reasonably warm.Just my idea.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

For what it is worth the 8-14 Noaa keeps a similar upper air pattern

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

 

ECM miles out of line, but a trend to more unsettled is still clear to see on the ensembles.

 

Yes det likely a bit OTT but the trend to something less warm looks to be gathering momentum.

After nearly 2 months of virtual drought like conditions a breakdown is  to be expected sooner or later..

Edited May 27, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Guest]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes det likely a bit OTT but the trend to something less warm looks to be gathering momentum.

After nearly 2 months of virtual drought like conditions a breakdown is  to be expected sooner or later..

Just as summer starts, standard....have to say while there is little evidence to suggest it just yet some of the output showing troughs anchored over the UK does concern me. These conditions often get blocked in during June for a week or two at a time.... 

[Guest]

Seems a cooler and more unsettled spell is likely as we enter June. Nothing to suggest at this time that it will be anything prolonged. We just don't know, though I understand the regular concerns of some members that June could be a poor month simply from the fact that with our climate there will always be that nagging worry that the good weather will disappear for months at a time!

Certain long-term forecasters on Twitter had pointed to May being more unsettled and changeable - nope. This likely change for June could be a delay of that prediction but more likely it is exactly what it looks like - one low pressure system bringing a spell of cooler and wetter weather for a time. How long it lasts is up for debate  

[mb018538]

21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Just as summer starts, standard....have to say while there is little evidence to suggest it just yet some of the output showing troughs anchored over the UK does concern me. These conditions often get blocked in during June for a week or two at a time.... 

I'd say the tide has been held back pretty well, but as we go into June it does look like some unsettled weather will finally arrive.

By day 10 the entire ECM ensemble range is between 1000-1015mb at the very best, so while we can't say exactly what this will mean at the surface, it's a pretty strong signal that changes are coming. Looks good for another week or so though, so not all doom and glom!

[Methuselah]

Out to Day 7, and things are still looking warm or very warm.

    

[shaky]

Changes are coming but just cos they are coming doesnt mean any meaningful rainfall!!might be cooler but still dry!!am sorry but the odd shower here and there will not cut it!!my lawn is going brown so i need a few days of heavy rainfall!!lol

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Anything that is forecast behond the weekend is pure speculation in my eyes. Some models do show some drop in pressure but I'm not convinced it's gonna be that easy to breakdown. By its still at day 9/10 so it's still FI. Gfs 6z looks different already early next week. High pressure over towards scandanavia looks more strong. 

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Out to Day 7, and things are still looking warm or very warm.

    

Sure is!


 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Gfs 6z is showing a northerly incursion by 200hrs. With an high out to the N.W I bet anything that northerly gets pushed east in further runs and the high will be more over the uk. Seen this before this spring when northerly was just watererd down. That's my bet. Anybody else feel that. I think we in for a special summer this year. No ramping lol

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Be interesting if the ens follow the northerly incursion later. 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Gfs 6z is showing a northerly incursion by 200hrs. With an high out to the N.W I bet anything that northerly gets pushed east in further runs and the high will be more over the uk. Seen this before this spring when northerly was just watererd down. That's my bet. Anybody else feel that. I think we in for a special summer this year. No ramping lol

Until it gets modelled in the reliable, I’m not buying it!

[Metwatch]

Nearly all enembles going for northerly all of a sudden on 00z run after day 9ish. Probs will change though again. Maybe, getting cooler but not much rain just yet i don't think.

 

[Guest]

Well there's something you don't see very often, two GFS Op's run out to T+200hrs that are almost identical. Again GFS drops the trough to the southwest of the UK through the middle of next week advecting in some very warming & humid conditions before the northerly takes over around Day 8/9...

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just amazing the amount of High Pressure there’s been around. The way it has been generally so dominant. Kinda feels like a repeat of Summer 2018. Perhaps not of the same league, but it’s almost as if the weather has been trying to do a balancing act after how wet it was during Winter.

It looks like the models are continuing with High Pressure holidaying over the UK at least for the next few days. Example from the GFS 06Z:

The core of the High Pressure migrating Eastwards to be centred over Scandinavia. Very warm at times, particularly in the strong sun!

A shallow area of Low Pressure is shown by the model to then drop down from the North-West to the West of the UK early next week. And this then heads towards mainland Western Europe. This of which, could introduce some thundery weather for Western and Southern areas of the UK. So perhaps something to watch out for, particularly if you love storms. 

Indeed as some say, a possibility to see some more noticeable changes further beyond. Maybe to something less settled/more unsettled as the models broadly show organised Low Pressure areas dropping down from the North with High Pressure becoming amplified to our West in the Atlantic. Not clear whether the Low Pressure will drop down far enough South through the UK or to our East. The GFS 06Z does go for Low Pressure sliding down to the East of the UK introducing a Northerly. Though this scenario definitely not close enough to be certain what will happen. A possibility that High Pressure could always cling by close enough to the West of the UK and deflect Low Pressure away further East. Depending on your weather preferences, for some, it’s an interesting outcome the models are showing and I suppose it could be argued that the plants are in need of a big drink. 

Edited May 27, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
Removing duplicate charts

[Zak M]

Lovely 06z GFS today.

Looks to be very warm or even hot in some places on day 7!

[Guest]

Almost universal support from the GFS 06z emsembles of another spike in warmth through the middle part of next week as the trough becomes positioned favorably to our south west. Ingredients seems to be there for some TS activity as well,although as usual at this stage we must remember the only thing GFS is worse at than predicting surface temps is its moisture content, dew points of 16-19C will likely be way off the mark! GFS not keen on things getting cooler until at least the 5th June now.....