Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Ben Sainsbury]

13 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Wow, big difference at T96 on the ECM regarding the low SW of Ireland. Much deeper than GFS, UKMO & ICON.

Despite that ECM, UKMO & ICON all relatively similar at T144. GFS nah nah.

[Mike Poole]

Back on track, T168:

I presume that little big feature on T120 was the remnants of the tropical storm, yes?

Edited May 17, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Lovely Jubbly 

That's the 0z Mark

[Zak M]

BINGO!

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Zak M said:

BINGO!

That's the 12z Zak

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That's the 0z Mark

Apologies I saw the correct chart but copied the incorrect one , deleted now .

[Mark wheeler]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That's the 12z Zak

It’s is indeed  

[Allseasons-Si]

Day 8 and the temps i hope would rocket from there,great ECM so far.

[Djdazzle]

Odd progression from 192 to 216..

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Day 8 and the temps i hope would rocket from there,great ECM so far.

That chart isn’t massively warm everywhere due to the air source, and a bit of ‘cooler’ air being drawn down the eastern flank. Need to shift east a bit for jackpot.

[Mike Poole]

T216:

in line with other models pulls the centre of the high back west.   A concern because it might stop the positive feedback loop with SSTs in the west Atlantic.  But that is for later....

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Back on track, T168:

I presume that little big feature on T120 was the remnants of the tropical storm, yes?

No Mike,TS Arthur just meanders around in the Atlantic

NH ECM 72,96.

black circle-Arthur

blue circle-new storm.

[Zak M]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That's the 12z Zak

I'm confused. Isn't that what we are supposed to be looking at, the ECM 12z? Lol

[Djdazzle]

Hopefully the HP at 240 would continue to drift eastwards. One thing we don’t want is it sucked west.

[Mark wheeler]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I'm confused. Isn't that what we are supposed to be looking at, the ECM 12z? Lol

It’s because I posted the 00z in error and you then posted it correctly. 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I'm confused. Isn't that what we are supposed to be looking at, the ECM 12z? Lol

I think he was being a bit sarky

anyway,ECM day ten ends on a fine note but a tad chilly.

 

[Mike Poole]

That will probably do, I guess, ECM T240:

The weather is the one thing we are still allowed to have in this coronavirus nightmare.... 

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That will probably do, I guess, ECM T240:

The weather is the one thing we are still allowed to have in this coronavirus nightmare.... 

It isn’t bad...settled, but not overly warm with cooler air circulating around the top of the high again. Best further south.

[Mike Poole]

Peak unsettled at T132,on JMA

Sorted by T192:

[Frosty.]

Well I’m  of reactions again sadly but my reaction would be happy if we have a plumey start to June (summer)!..in the meantime, enjoy another early taste of summer during MOST of the week ahead!!!
 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ding a ling a ling.. If High Pressure is your thing.. Plenty of it on the mean, I will take that.. If only you could have seen me and me cat waiting for the ECM to roll out..

Edited May 17, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 ensemble mean chart:

i think I might have foolishly said a few days ago Id eat my face mask if this happened.  Well I would, but I don't wear one....T240:

Very strong signal, 1030 on the mean, as I said earlier would like it to be the east of us rather slightly to the west, but it is what it is, probably decent weather up until, and only until, we can have a beer outside.  Then, you can bet your backside that La Niña will come along and rain on everyone's parade....that is two months away, in my view, so enjoy the weather we've got now....

[mb018538]

People are getting too hung up on La Niña....it doesn’t always lead to a bad summer. I wouldn’t worry about it too much at the moment.

[Mike Poole]

23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

People are getting too hung up on La Niña....it doesn’t always lead to a bad summer. I wouldn’t worry about it too much at the moment.

No, I don't think it will ruin this summer for a while, the signals for the next two months look very good, but La Niña may well be a factor in my view from after mid July, via tanking AAM.  Long way to go until then, while the prognosis in the meantime is largely positive.  It is for  me anyway......my car park is lovely at this time of year, but  I can't get a decent tan on a dining chair because the shadow of my moobs leaves white streaks.  We all have our lockdown problems......

Edited May 17, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Peak unsettled at T132,on JMA

Sorted by T192:

Doesnt look unsettled at all for us in the far SE/South Nice charts there pleasant