Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just to add the METO extended forecast is fantastic for warmer conditions the word hot is also mentioned for the south and east.

C.S

Great, they are catching up with us on here then!

Edited May 12, 2020 by Mike Poole

[carinthian]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, wobble from the GFS today, it seems more prone to these than the other models, maybe just because it runs twice as often.  UKMO looks solid, GEM the pick so far:

I do like the facility to be able to do a GIF out to T240 on the GEM...

Very interested to see ECM take on things shortly, I expect it to follow GEM, but we will see...

Hi Mike, ICON has performed well this last few weeks with its runs out to 180hrs. This chart reverts back to form with Azores trough and White Sea low in situ. All good for high pressure zone over the British Isles. Obviously no good for Scandi-land , who remain under the grip of cold cyclonic flow.

C

[mb018538]

ECM is also superb. Looks like GFS has had too many vodkas in lockdown.

[Djdazzle]

ECM 168

[Zak M]

The ECM is certainly doing bits tonight!!

   

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192:

i think we can say it was a GFS wobble, this looks great !

[Mike Poole]

And now T216 we get the warm T850s as well, flooding north

[Djdazzle]

ECM 216. This has 30C+ potential.

[mb018538]

ECM turns on the flamethrower tonight! Likely hot outlier, but a beautiful day 9 chart. Looks like something out of high summer that would give 35c!

[shaky]

Looks like as usual gfs is embarrassing itself!!what a brilliant ecm this evening!!very warm and sunny all the way!!

[Methuselah]

Yes, it's on its way...Summer on an A-road near you!    

[Djdazzle]

ECM 240 would be hot.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

No complaints from me with ECM... I just told @Scepticalon the covid discussion thread that you have better weather on the way for Scotland... Well hear it is mate... Time to put that snow shovel away.. Come to mention.. All  enjoy it folks... Summer Holidays maybe cancelled abroad but let's hope we will have our very own Costa del England.. 

Edited May 12, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Mike Poole]

Just to complete the set, ECM T240:

But I also wanted to make a wider point tonight.  We are living in unprecedented times, and I, like, I am sure, many of you, am struggling.  As someone who is probably autistic to some extent, I'm a creature of habit, that habit included going to the pub, going to the gym, meeting people at work (without that I don't meet anyone face to face apart from my neighbours in the flats carpark, 2m apart of course). I can't do those things anymore.

So I just wanted to say thank you for a rare part of my life I can still do, thank you to all you great people who post, thank you to @Paul that Netweather still works, thanks to @SylvainTV that Meteociel still works, thanks that the models themselves still work, although without crucial aircraft data of course.  And if signs from the models are anything to go by, thanks that we get that decent summer that might take our minds off this nightmare. 

Edited May 12, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Mr Frost]

Oooooooft! Get in the oven! 

Now we are cooking - this is what you want to see as a heat lover in May! 

Predicted midday temperatures on the last frame of the ECM run...(just for fun at this range of course - imagine what those temperatures would be maxing out at later that day!)

 

Stunning stuff.

 

Probably a massive outlier on the last couple of frames but...you love to see it! 

That is how you bow out of a warm/sunny Spring overall - in roasting hot style! 

[Zak M]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just to complete the set, ECM T240:

But I also wanted to make a wider point tonight.  We are living in unprecedented times, and I, like, I am sure, many of you, am struggling.  As someone who is probably autistic to some extent, I'm a creature of habit, that habit included going to the pub, going to the gym, meeting people at work (without that I don't meet anyone face to face apart from my neighbours in the flats carpark, 2m apart of course). I can't do those things anymore.

So I just wanted to say thank you for a rare part of my life I can still do, thank you to all you great people who post, thank you to @Paul that Netweather still works, thanks to @SylvainTV that Meteociel still works, thanks that the models themselves still work, although without crucial aircraft data of course.  And if signs from the models are anything to go by, thanks that we get that decent summer that might take our minds off this nightmare. 

I have to agree. An amazing site for weather enthusiasts. I use this site more than all of my other social media apps combined!

[LRD]

What a spring this is turning out to be. Helps ease troubled times

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Have you ever seen a grown man cry like a baby.. Well very touching posts and I felt a little welling up then.. Great community, great spirit.. We all pulled together back in the days of the Blitz.. And we will all pull together again.. Good stuff guys and gals.. Enjoy the good weather that's a coming..

[LRD]

Dare I say there is some consistency between ECM and GFS? 0z run but even so

Summer boooooom...

Edited May 12, 2020 by LRD

[Frosty.]

Well I ran out of reactions (only get a few) too many great posts but what an ECM 12z run!..that would deliver high summer conditions..indeed heatwave conditions..need something to help take my mind off this horrible covid-19 and this run just helped a lot..fingers crossed!

 

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, JON SNOW said:

Well I ran out of reactions (only get a few) too many great posts but what an ECM 12z run!..that would deliver high summer conditions..indeed heatwave conditions..need something to help take my mind off this horrible covid-19 and this run just helped a lot..fingers crossed!

 

That's all too true, karl...But some of us are already crying out for rain!

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

That's all too true, karl...But some of us are already crying out for rain!

Indeed Ed but I think there would be thunderstorm potential with that hot and increasingly humid continental SE’ly flow on the ECM 12z op...anyway, loving the idea of a bonus May hot spell before summer even begins!

[mb018538]

 

Well....it’s an outlier. Or trendsetter??!

 

[Dancerwithwings]

Looking at this chart, we should be renaming this thread 

Output model discussion - heading into SUMMER

edit.... hint hint 

Edited May 12, 2020 by Dancerwithwings

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe, changes in the orientation of the ever omni-present high that has stuck around and shifted position since mid March it seems, through the rest of the week it begins to sink south drawing in milder flow from off the atlantic over the top, eventually pulling in some warmer uppers from the SW, temps rising bit by bit from Thursday (tomorrow looks a cold day indeed for May), sunshine levels will vary quite a bit of cloud at first, becoming sunny by weekend for south and east, but western and northern parts could then be plagued by lots of low cloud and dank conditions thanks to a tropical maritime airstream and long SW flow, drizzle or light rain at times here.

Into next week, general theme from the models is for a continued warm up with dry settled weather - heights building in situ over the UK. By mid May, we can begin to develop our own warm pool especially when there are light winds and strong heights overhead, the sun has the same strength as in late July.

Not so sure heights will advect sufficiently east to draw in very warm continental air as shown by ECM, we have a classic trough-ridge-trough pattern, the trough to the NE could well scupper this from happening, but as said we don't necessarily need heights to do this, the heat will build if they stay in situ at this time of year.

Quite a topsy turvy May this could turn out to be - but quite normal for May, which is renowned for being the month when the atlantic is at its quietest, and we can see marked switcharounds.