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April 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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23 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I think some are perhaps forgetting just how extreme April 07/11 were and just what an anomaly 10.4C represents. At 1.9C above the 1981-2010 average it's as extreme as January and February were. 

People get so used to warm months that they just don’t feel as exceptional as they are on paper. The sunniest April on record, and probably would have been the driest barring those last couple of days. It was fantastic.

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April confirmed as 10.4c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

6.2c to the 1st 0.3c below the 61 to 90 average 2.1c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________ Current high this month 6.2c to the 1st Current low this month 6.2c to the

Look at that CET anomaly so far, off the scale. Even now at only 11th April, the rest of the year only needs to be 1.11C above the average for it to be the warmest year on record.

Posted Images

8 hours ago, Scorcher said:

That's shocking- doesn't reflect how warm the month was at all

I think eastern areas will have dragged down the average in the second half. Here despite the lovely weather, apart from 3 days maximum temps were generally 10-14C here due to the onshore breeze after the 12th. We finished on 9.8C (+1.5C), so 1.2C below 2007 and 2011 which were both 11.0C. Very similar to 2014 and 2018 in fact, though they were very different to this year for rainfall and sunshine.

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36 minutes ago, reef said:

I think eastern areas will have dragged down the average in the second half. Here despite the lovely weather, apart from 3 days maximum temps were generally 10-14C here due to the onshore breeze after the 12th. We finished on 9.8C (+1.5C), so 1.2C below 2007 and 2011 which were both 11.0C. Very similar to 2014 and 2018 in fact, though they were very different to this year for rainfall and sunshine.

Yes that would make sense. It certainly felt very warm in the west and we had so many 18C+ afternoons.

I was puzzled why it didn't rise faster when the warm days were happening and then dropped immediately as soon as we had the cooler days at the end of the month.

It must have been the eastern stations that brought the average down so that would explain a lot.

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54 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Yes that would make sense. It certainly felt very warm in the west and we had so many 18C+ afternoons.

I was puzzled why it didn't rise faster when the warm days were happening and then dropped immediately as soon as we had the cooler days at the end of the month.

It must have been the eastern stations that brought the average down so that would explain a lot.

We had a quite a few cold nights and this might have also had an affect on the final figure.

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10 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Yes that would make sense. It certainly felt very warm in the west and we had so many 18C+ afternoons.

I was puzzled why it didn't rise faster when the warm days were happening and then dropped immediately as soon as we had the cooler days at the end of the month.

It must have been the eastern stations that brought the average down so that would explain a lot.

There aren’t many eastern stations near the coast though....the CET eastern extent runs down close to here, and although Norfolk/Suffolk/Essex coastal areas were a good 4-5c lower a lot of days, it was still warm enough here?

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Okay, nuff said about that CET adjustment, these things have their own internal logic -- meanwhile my guesstimate of EWP days ago has actually hit right on, saving me any need to do anything about the previous post several days ago except to re-state that the provisional is actually 37 mm (I worked from 37.1 to avoid a few ties) so that means we await a more precise value to see whether it's Blast from the Past (38 mm) or Relativistic (36 mm) with the closest forecast. I will post an updated scoring table when the more precise value is released on the 5th. Here again, there's no guarantee the final result will even round off to 37 mm, I've seen a few that were 1 or 2 mm away from the provisional but as I don't have a close forecast I can't reliably predict which way it might go. (j/lk)

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Downloads

April 2020.pdf

Apr 20 CET.xlsx

Monthly results

Nobody got 10.4c spot on, Godber 1 was closest 0.1c with Roger J Smith and Earthshine both 0.2c out.

image.thumb.png.dd10e21a43599aaf65569212e03ca988.png

Seasonal

A largely new 1-2-3 with Dancerwithwings leading from Quicksilver1989 (2nd) and DAVID SNOW (3rd). 

image.thumb.png.dc2cd64e5a3e9a8e68ab875d21c58d3b.png

Overall

A very similar overall compared to seasonal with Dancerwithwings again leading from Quicksilver1989 (2nd) with mb018538 (3rd)

image.thumb.png.627b88883cfa3d4dad452300f3671925.png

Edited by J10
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On 30/04/2020 at 06:51, Weather-history said:

As I said in a post in another thread about how hard it is to break "driest on record" monthly records certainly over a region or a country, this month may not even be the top 20 driest Aprils on record and it now looks it may not even be in the top 30

Its around 24mm for England and Wales by 28th April 

Wow, its not even in the top 50.  

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1 hour ago, J10 said:

Downloads

April 2020.pdf 499.46 kB · 4 downloads

Apr 20 CET.xlsx 460.87 kB · 3 downloads

Monthly results

Nobody got 10.4c spot on, Godber 1 was closest 0.1c with Roger J Smith and Earthshine both 0.2c out.

image.thumb.png.dd10e21a43599aaf65569212e03ca988.png

Seasonal

A largely new 1-2-3 with Dancerwithwings leading from Quicksilver1989 (2nd) and DAVID SNOW (3rd). 

image.thumb.png.dc2cd64e5a3e9a8e68ab875d21c58d3b.png

Overall

A very similar overall compared to seasonal with Dancerwithwings again leading from Quicksilver1989 (2nd) with mb018538 (3rd)

image.thumb.png.627b88883cfa3d4dad452300f3671925.png

Hi,

I'm probably blind, but I can't see my entries? I've entered all except December.

Thanks

 

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Thanks for this. Still in the top 3 by my fingernails! I’ve revised my prediction down 0.5 in the last 2 months and it’s cost me dear! Let’s hope May is closer to my prediction.

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An awesome month here.  Many days with temperatures 20C+ and numerous cloudless days.  Truly an exceptional month, even if it didnt beat 2007 or 2011.  Quite suprised my guess was quite close, really thought I had overdone it!

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4 hours ago, February1978 said:

Hi,

I'm probably blind, but I can't see my entries? I've entered all except December.

Thanks

It is an Excel quirk (more details below). Your username "February 1978" defaults to 28522.

You are 11th in seasonal comp and 18th overall and 6th in April.
I'll change the format to put your name to February 1978 in future, as shown below.

Thank you for continuing to compete

image.thumb.png.ac9b10a6bc53ef2932164abdca72cff4.pngimage.thumb.png.441088e1da05f52ff3e2d10a0b6d71a6.png

Revised PDF

April 2020 v2.pdf

More on Excel quirk -

Each date in Excel is converted to a number as per below, each cumulative day since 1st January 1900.
So the username February1978 was converted into a number based on the date 1st February 1978.

image.png.8a742804badbf1e1526c9d91d1fb51bf.png

 

Edited by J10
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2 hours ago, J10 said:

It is an Excel quirk (more details below). Your username "February 1978" defaults to 28522.

You are 11th in seasonal comp and 18th overall and 6th in April.
I'll change the format to put your name to February 1978 in future, as shown below.

Thank you for continuing to compete

image.thumb.png.ac9b10a6bc53ef2932164abdca72cff4.pngimage.thumb.png.441088e1da05f52ff3e2d10a0b6d71a6.png

Revised PDF

April 2020 v2.pdf 499.44 kB · 1 download

More on Excel quirk -

Each date in Excel is converted to a number as per below, each cumulative day since 1st January 1900.
So the username February1978 was converted into a number based on the date 1st February 1978.

image.png.8a742804badbf1e1526c9d91d1fb51bf.png

 

 

Ok, understood, thanks for replying

If it's too much trouble to change it, that's fine I know what to look for

Thanks

F78

 

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J10 -- you could move Earthshine up to second place as my revised forecast was made after his (my original edited one came before, unlike mortal members of NW I can edit posts forever, a privilege that I requested to maintain my historical data files). (later edit _ thanks I see you made that change.)

Here are the best combined forecasts now by the confirmed EWP of 37.1 mm.  

Godber1 has the best combined pair at 1st CET (10.5) and 8th EWP (2nd 42 mm entry). That adds up to 9 combined ranking points.

The second and third best combination are those of Diagonal Red Line (9th CET 9.5 first entry, 3rd EWP 40 mm first entry, 12 combined ranks) and davehsug (8th CET with second submitted 9.7 entry and 5th EWP with the third 40 mm entry, 13 combined ranks). Mulzy was next with a 9.5 CET for 10th there, and the second of the three 40 mm entries (4th EWP) for a combined 14 ranking points. 

Brmbrmcar and CheesepuffScott also did fairly well with their combined forecasts (9.4, 46 mm and 9.3, 45.9 mm). Thundery Wintry Showers had 9.3, 43.8 but with a few earlier entries in the CET came out to about the same combined ranking as CPS. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Combined annual rankings for CET and EWP

As per previous versions of this table, sole CET forecasters (no EWP rank) are listed in the table at the CET ranking position. 

If you've entered significantly fewer EWP than CET (e.g. Summer Blizzard) your EWP rank is not averaged in but is shown in brackets.

This table will be edited as necessary if the EWP rankings change after the April value is confirmed. It won't be reposted later though.

Minimum of 3/5 CET required to gain a CET ranking so that's the minimum for table entry, a few EWP ranks are therefore missed as you could

achieve a higher rank than some listed here with one or two forecasts that scored well. Combined rank is indented and shown in bold type, the

first rank shown applies to all entrants including the CET-only group. As an example of how to read rankings, the third entry (mb018538) is

third in combined overall, first in combined for those entering both contests, 3rd in CET, and 6th in EWP for an average rank of 4.5.

There are 77 combined or solo CET ranked forecasters, and space in the table for the nine next highest from all of the 2/5 grouping(s).

** CET rankings are shown as a continuous spectrum into that group (i.e. 78th ++ ) even if they might have more CET

_ _  points from their forecasts than lowest ranked members of the "first division" so to speak. In fact I looked up the points and the top 2/5

forecaster ranked 78th overall has enough points to be 24th in the main standings, the second highest would rank 32nd and the third 38th.

Those comparative ranks will fall steadily though as they lose ranking points for totals (it's their averages that keep them up at those levels).

Because EWP ranks are only based on total scores, non-participants tend to fall out of the top fifty fairly quickly. 

==========================================================================================

Rank __ CET _ EWP __ avg __ Forecaster ___________ Rank ___ CET _ EWP __ avg __ Forecaster

01 _____ 1 ___ ---- ____ 1 ____ Dancerwithwings _______44_ 34 __63 __ 13 ___ 38.0 ___ Robbie Garrett

02 _____ 2 ___ ---- ____ 2 ____ Quicksilver1989 ________45_ 35 __42 __ 38 ___ 40.0 ___ syed2878

03_ 01__ 3 ____ 6 ____ 4.5 ___ mb018538 ____________46_ 36 __59 __ 22 ___ 40.5 ___ virtualsphere

04_ 02 __13 ___ 1 ____ 7.0 ___ Reef ________________ t47_t37 __55 __ 28 ___ 41.5 ___Midlands Ice Age

05_ 03 __4t ___11 ____ 7.5 ___ Stationary Front ________t47_t37 __52 __ 31 ___ 41.5 ___ SteveB

06_ 04 __ 6 ___ 9 ____ 7.5 ___ Timmytour ____________ 49_ 39 __50 __ 34 ___ 42.0 ___ seaside60

07_ 05 __12 ___5 ____ 8.5 ___ Mulzy ________________ 50_ 40 __41 __ 44 ___ 42.5 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather

t08 ______9 __ ---- ____9.0 ___Man with Beard _________51_ 41 __76__ 10 ___ 43.0 ___ jonboy

t08_ 06 __10 ___8 ____ 9.0 ___Don __________________t52_t42 __37 __ 55 ___ 46.0 ___ senior ridge 

10_ 07 __17 __ 07 ___ 12.0 ___Thundery Wintry Showers_t52_t42 __60 __ 32 ___ 46.0 ___ JeffC

11______14 __ --- ___ 14.0 ___ Froze were the Days ____ 54_ 44 __46 __ 47 ___ 46.5 ___ prolongedSnowLover

12_ 08 __16 __ 14 ___ 15.0 ___ DR(S)NO _____________55_ 45 __48 __ 46 ___ 47.0 ___ Shillitocettwo

13_ 09 __ 8 __ 26 ___ 17.0 ___ Weather26 ____________ 56_ 46 __62 __ 33 ___ 47.5 ___ daniel*

14_ 10 __25 __ 11t___ 18.0 ___General Cluster _________57_ 47 __75__ 23 ___ 49.0 ___ SLEETY

t15_t11 __21 __ 19 ___ 20.0 ___brmbrmcar ____________58_ 48 __29 __ 70 ___ 49.5 ___ coldest winter 

t15_t11 __11 __ 29 ___ 20.0 ___ kentspur ______________59_ 49 __57 __ 43 ___ 50.0 ___ Stargazer 

17_ 13 __4t __ 37 ___ 20.5 ___ The PIT _______________60_ 50 __65 __ 39 ___ 52.0 ___ CheesepuffScott

18_ 14 __20 __ 25 ___ 22.5 ___ Mr Maunder ___________ t61_t51__44 __ 62 ___ 53.0 ___ Joneseye

19_ 15 __ 7 __ 40 ___ 23.5 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _______ t61_t51 __47 __ 59 ___ 53.0 ___ pegg24

20______24 __ --- ___ 24.0 ___Summer Sun ___________t61______53 __(81)___ 53.0 ___ Beet

21_ 16 __45 ___ 4 ___ 24.5 ___ Godber1 ______________64_ 53 __54 __ 57 ___ 55.5 ___ Polar Gael

22_ 17 __32 __ 18 ___ 25.0 ___ snowray ______________ 65_____ 56 __(109) __56.0 ___ summer blizzard

23______26 __ --- ___ 26.0 ___ damianslaw ___________t66_t54 __38 __ 76 ___ 57.0 ___ stewfox

t24______27 __ --- ___ 27.0 ___ sundog ______________t66_t54 __61 __ 53 ___ 57.0 ___ I Remember Atl 252

t24_18 __18 __ 36 ___ 27.0 ___ February1978 _________t66_t54 __73__ 61 ___ 57.0 ___ let it snow!

26_ 19 __34 __ 21 ___ 27.5 ___ davehsug ____________ t66_t54 __58 __ 56 ___ 57.0 ___Carl46Wrexham

27_ 20 __30 __ 27 ___ 28.5 ___ Roger J Smith __________70_ 58 __71__ 45 ___ 58.0 ___ Mr TOAD

28_ 21 __28 __ 30 ___ 29.0 ___ DAVID SNOW __________71_ 59 __72__ 48 ___ 60.0 ___ freeze

t29_t22 __40 __ 20 ___ 30.0 ___ J10 _________________t72_t60 __64 __ 60 ___ 62.0 ___ lottiekent

t29_t22 __43 __ 17 ___ 30.0 ___ Blast from the Past _____t72_t60 __70__ 54 ___ 62.0 ___ Neil N

t31______31 __ --- ___ 31.0 ___ Fozfoster ______________74_ 62 __83__ 42 ___ 62.5 ___ Radiating Dendrite (2/5)

t31_ 24 __51 __ 11t___ 31.0 ___ Bobd29 _______________ 75_ 62 __78__ 50 ___ 64.0 ___ Pinball wizard (2/5)

t33_t25 __22 __ 41 ___ 31.5 ___DiagonalRedLine ________ 76_ 63 __69 __ 66 ___ 67.5 ___ cymro

t33_t25 __39 __ 24 ___ 31.5 ___ Dog Toffee _____________77______68 __ --- ___ 68.0 ___ Walsall Wood Snow

35_ 27 __49 __ 16 ___ 32.5 ___ Relativistic _____________ 78_ 64 __ 82 __ 58 ___ 70.0 ___ Mapantz (2/5)

36______33 __ --- ___ 33.0 ___ Duncan McAlister ________t79_ 65 __79 __ 69 ___ 74.0 ___ Igloo (2/5)

37_ 28 __15 __ 52 ___ 33.5 ___ Norrance ______________ t79______74 __ --- ___ 74.0 ___ Kentish Man

t38_t29 __19 __ 49 ___ 34.0 ___ weather-history _________ 81 _____ 81 __ --- ___ 81.0 ___ Andrew R (2/5)

t38_t29 __66 ___ 2 ___ 34.0 ___ emmett garland _________ 82_ 66 __ 84 __ 87 ___85.5 ___ Booferking (2/5)

t40_t31 __35 __ 35 ___ 35.0 ___ Born from the Void ______  83_ 67 __80 __118 ___99.0 ___ Earthshine (2/5)

t40_t31 __67 ___ 3 ___ 35.0 ___ Twilight _______________ 84_ 68 __77 __129 __103.0 ___Lettucing Gutted

42______ 36 __ --- ___ 36.0 ___ Mark Bayley ___________ 85 _69 __ 85 __127 __106.5 __ badgers01 (2/5)

43_ 33 __23 __ 51 ___ 37.0 ___ B87 __________________ 86_ 70 __86 __ 135 __110.5 __ Thundershine (2/5)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: In the above table, forecasters highlighted in green have 3/5 entries (CET) and have not yet entered May;

__ these will drop to second division CET table after May as a result unless they enter May before end of Sunday 3rd.

Forecasters highlighted in orange also have entered 3/5 but did enter May but note, .f you are in this group,

__ you will need to enter all future contests to Nov 2020 to remain ranked in CET (first division). 

Forecasters highlighted in blue are at 4/5 whether entered in May or not will not move them from main CET rankings after May.

Note if you're in blue and do not enter May, you will also need to enter all future months to remain ranked in CET (first div).

In a few cases the number of EWP contests entered was lower but not by more than one so the ranks are utilized. Only two

forecasters (Summer Blizzard, beet) had a great enough disparity in entries to qualify for CET-only rank average with one EWP. 

The additonal nine ranked forecasters from the 2/5 CET pool are marked in red -- they are already in the second division of CET.

Note that I only added the top nine 2/5 CET forecasters regardless of EWP status. These top nine include eight who have

an EWP rank and one who does not. The only EWP forecasters who do not appear in this table all have 1/5 entries (mostly Dec). 

Of those, the top ranked was 'cold is best' who won December and is now ranked 63rd in EWP. 

An incentive to continue entering for the current 2/5 group is that these tables will always include the group that is one short

of the full requirement for CET (that will be 3/6 after May). However, I can only see one of the nine among the May entrants so

that will reduce the added forecaster group to that one person plus anyone who later drops out and stays one short later. 

_____________________

(note added May 3rd _ Found one slight error in calculations, Stationary Front has moved up a few positions as a result. 

Also please note, the table was constructed before I noticed the position error for my CET forecast and there could be a few

CET ranks affected slightly around my position of 30th, but I won't have a chance to check those changes until next month --

I doubt that it would move anyone more than one or two overall ranks in either CET or average of CET/EWP). 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Just on the slight chance my post comes to the attention of anyone who forgot to enter May, you have the rest of this hour available to get in there before we lock the gates and start torturing the contestants with real time information. 

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Hi Roger/J10

ive probably asked this before but I can’t remember the answer, apologies 

 

is there a reason I can’t get to look at these files on my iPhone... am I doing something wrong?

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9 hours ago, DR(S)NO said:

Hi Roger/J10

ive probably asked this before but I can’t remember the answer, apologies 

 

is there a reason I can’t get to look at these files on my iPhone... am I doing something wrong?

If I recall correctly it's a quirk...I can't open them on my Android phone or my kindle, also Android, but fine on my PC 

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The EWP actually confirmed my provisional value of 37.1 mm so that no revisions are required for the tables I posted earlier. 

This means the 1-2 finish for April is Blast from the Past (38 mm) and Relativistic (36 mm). You can scroll back through the thread to find the top forty scoring for April and a little more recently all the CET and EWP annual ranks combined.

As to opening the excel files, I think net-weather is adding coding to the attachment url that our home computers don't recognize so you have to download the files and then prompt your hesitant excel program to open them up. That's how I get them open anyway. Since I've posted all the annual ranks and most of the April ranks, I won't download the excel file that backs up my scoring for EWP. If anyone actually wants to see it, PM me. The April data are back several days now, it's rather ironic that the final EWP values hit my later guessed value right on when my forecast was a complete shambles but it has saved me several hours of file editing. 

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6 hours ago, JeffC said:

If I recall correctly it's a quirk...I can't open them on my Android phone or my kindle, also Android, but fine on my PC 

Strange. as I used to have no problems 

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7 hours ago, DR(S)NO said:

Strange. as I used to have no problems 

Yes, it's a newish issue I think...

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On 01/05/2020 at 18:46, mb018538 said:

People get so used to warm months that they just don’t feel as exceptional as they are on paper. The sunniest April on record, and probably would have been the driest barring those last couple of days. It was fantastic.

Indeed. Just under 2C warmer than the 1981-2010 average. I guess we’ve gotten pretty used to such anomalously warm months in recent years, particularly this time of year.

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April 2020 comes in with a CET of 10.4, which not as insanely warm as 2007 and 2011 (the all time record holder) were, it was still the tied fifth warmest April in the 362 year long CET record, which puts into perspective how notably warm April 2020 was.  April 2020 was also the fifth "notably warm" April since and including 2007.  I would call an April CET in double figures as notably warm, and there have been five of them in the 14 years from 2007 to 2020, which goes to show how common really warm Aprils have become in recent years, especially as there were no double figure April CETs between 1987 and 2007.

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Forgot to put in the final stats in for April..ended on +0.1c.. month was saved by a warm last week..however still finished 5.3c below normal making 15 months in a row of below normal values.

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