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  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Yeah, just looking at the plots and another day of big losses, like the last 2, would start to paint out a 'cliff edge' on the plots!

    It would also eat into the lead 2012 will pull out in Aug when we hit the anniversary of the GAC 2012...... challenge 2012 'without' a GAC????

    Sometimes the basin is worth keeping an eye on even for those that have a decades worth of 'Arctic Burnout' under your belts!!!

    Again I'd caution that this past decade has not seen the 'ice find a new stable level' but rather seen a continuation, year round, of the degradation of the ice and the systems that protect/nurture it!

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    The anomaly continues to grow, NSIDC extent now 570k below the next lowest year, and below the minima of 1979, 80, 81, 82, 83, 86, 86, 87, 88, 89, 92, 94, 96, 97 and 2001. We're 1 million km^2 below

    Your more than welcomed to post on this thread but even if the UK does not always have the heat, sadly elsewhere across the globe most certainly does.  MIA - From what I gathered, you thought the

    Using previous 20 years melt rates from August 26th, all produce the 2nd lowest minimum on record. Here's a slow animation from the last few days, highlighting the continued push north of t

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    34 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    Again we are seeing analysis where we are assuming high pressure in the Arctic means clear blue skies and sunshine but a look at worldview shows that is not necessary the case. You mention sunshine over open areas of water but actually most open water areas such as the Laptev, Chukchi and the ESS has been largely cloudy recently and even the CAB has been cloudier at times as areas of shallow troughing heading around the high. There is some areas which are receiving sunny weather but the reason why this high is not as sunny as one might think is probably down to the fact its an Arctic high rather than a ridge from the landmasses which means there is much less drier air in the Arctic. 

    The ice is getting compacted so extent is reducing, it really is now damage limitation and it will be a miracle if we finish above 4 million. You never know with the Arctic though. 

    Sure, it's not completely clear skies across the Arctic every day, but the high pressure is allowing more sunshine in, across larger areas than normal, at a time when insolation is close to its peak. For example, in the 7 days up to June 6th, the vast majority of the open water across the Laptev sea was visible on worldview. For the central Arctic, the preconditioning in terms of melt ponding and wet snow (and now extra heating of the sea ice as it thins and darkens due to algae underneath) means that the clearer skies than normal can produce a greater temperature increase and more melting, further preconditioning the ice for enhanced melt in the next 2 months.

    Also, while compaction has increased in the last 2 days and is visibly having an effect, it still only increased to the 2010s average, and was among the lowest on record for the week or so before that, so compaction can't explain a lot of the area/extent losses.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The graph below is a projection of the 2020 NSIDC daily sea ice extent, based on the daily losses since 2000, with the oldest years being lighter grey lines and most recent being darker gray. The years with the lowest minima are coloured. It also includes the date and value of all previous daily minima in circles. We'll likely pass the 1980 minimum sometime next week. If that happens before July 17th (the date beaten in 2011, 2012 and 2019), which seems likely, it will be the earliest date that a previous minimum has been beaten

    Based on the projections it appears almost certain now that we'll finish in the bottom 6, but will still require and one of the largest losses on record to beat 2012. This is, of course, ignoring the conditioning of the pack, low volume and the continued forecast for high pressure.

    Projection2020_7_7.thumb.png.9b7a37c71fba76517d30dd0669faf069.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    On 07/07/2020 at 11:24, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Most area and extent measures are showing a record low for the time of year. The latest volume update, to the end of June, had 2020 at 4th lowest, but it had undergone record fast losses in the second half of June, so it's probably close to a record low currently too.

    The annual minimum extent isn't usually reached until September, but the trends in many metrics and the current forecasts lend weight to 2020 challenging the record low from 2012. Much can change between now and then, such as a switch to favourable weather for ice retention over the next 8 weeks, so it will be fascinating to watch how things unfold.

    Very worrying news indeed

    Can only hope it can be slowed down

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest version of the graph. Following the extent loss of 3 of the last 20 years would put us below the 2012 minimum. Yesterday it was just 1.

    Projection2020_8_7.thumb.png.1c337d13310966d9bd511edad57d257e.png

    Edit: Below is an animation showing the change from yesterday

    Projection2020_7_7to8_7C.thumb.gif.ef2a8182f21b7cdd560538e44246601f.gif

     

    Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Jaxa 'caught up' and gave us another two century plus losses to add to the ones previous

    With the same picture remaining will we see even more ice go and major holes open in the central pack over the coming days?

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    48 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

    Jaxa 'caught up' and gave us another two century plus losses to add to the ones previous

    With the same picture remaining will we see even more ice go and major holes open in the central pack over the coming days?

    I'll be surprised if we see holes appear in the CAB as the ice is getting pushed towards there by the high but we are starting too see more holes developing on the edges of the ice on the Pacific side of the basin. In fairness most years this does happen but given the low extent we do have, it does increase the likely hood of more sharp drops in the future. 

    Really do hope holes don't develop widely in the CAB as a record low would seem more likely then given the ice edge won't have far too reach any dispersed ice. It really is damage limitation now because regardless where we end up in September, we seen more signs sea ice is melting away quicker and quicker and even if one region ice holds up, you can be sure another area is not holding onto ice conditions at all. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest NSIDC extent drop is a big one again, 176k. So that's 2 mega melt weeks in a row, 2.015 million km2 lost in 2 weeks.

    Latest image of the 2020 minimum projection is below, and the animation of how this has changed over the last 4 days below that.

    Projection2020_10_7.thumb.jpg.22c52ffca927d6b7305d817548ea981b.jpg

     

    Project2020_7_7to10_7.thumb.gif.495de1e35b18f8ed0a33a7bd65983756.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Never mind chaps and chapesses, next winter's 'recovery' will be better than ever!:oldsad:

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    23 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    Never mind chaps and chapesses, next winter's 'recovery' will be better than ever!:oldsad:

    One thing for sure we need in winter is more TRUE Arctic highs, whilst you might get colder weather in a positive AO, it really does harm ice thicknesses on the Siberian side of the basin and with Siberian heatwaves on the rise, we are seeing quicker melting in that region in 3 out of the past 4 years now. Only 2018 saw slow melting there as there was very decent ice thicknesses there. Sadly the vast majority still melted out though, not helped by the constant warmth we saw during September that year. 

    Nothing has changed in my prediction we will finish under 4 million, the overall shape of the pack is still on to look like 2007 but without the extra bit in the Laptev sea. How far will that ice edge travel on the Siberian and Atlantic side and how close will it get to the pole? Will be interesting too see. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Interesting proposal from 'FishOutOfWater' on the ASI forum:

    "The increase in the BSC over the past decade, especially in September and October has transported warm salty water into the Chukchi sea region and it has subducted along the shelf margin into the 30 to 100 m depths in the Beaufort sea. This is important because the stored heat and salinity is affecting the melting in the Beaufort gyre right now as the gyre spins up under persistent high pressure. That's why I think that the Beaufort ice will melt out. The sudbuction of warm moderately salty summer water into the Beaufort gyre is now coming back to affect the ice."

    I don't know of a good way to verify what they say, though - other than waiting and seeing what goes on in the coming weeks. Satellite obs show sudden low concentration ice or melt pond development for yesterday so perhaps that's a hint that something stealthy has been going on? Will need to see how much it persists in the next few days.

    image.thumb.png.7087bcea6e7d105b2aed8cf7f8be22d8.png


    Overall, we have a very compact main Arctic sea ice pack. Extent is record-low by some margin, but area is 'only' 3rd lowest - though the drop rate did tick up slightly today and I noticed a few more low concentration areas appearing in the CAB where the 'melting bite' from the Laptev was early-mid last week, so we might see area try for 2nd or 1st again soon, depending on whether those new areas are a result of ice disintegrating following strong melt.


    Weather-wise, the patterns to watch out in the next few weeks for are increasingly ones that move ice about while injecting warmth and moisture over the Arctic basin. 

    Model forecasts show the current central high lasting until 5 days from now... but they were showing the same thing several days ago - the move-on has been put back more and more. It surely must move aside at some point but I honestly can't say with any confidence whether that will be by the time this week is done.

    With that uncertainty afoot, I've not been putting any stock in what the models do once they get that high on the move or break it down. There's a lot of inconsistency - in the +7 to +10 day charts I've seen everything from Arctic dipole patterns of America-side ridges and Asia-side lows... to the complete inverse of that!

    Not many sustainably slack setups appearing, mind... so perhaps an ominous signal lurking beneath the chaos.


    While waiting to see how the weather patterns turn out, I'll be watching Beaufort like a hawk - it looks to me to be the only region standing in the way of record low sea ice coverage this September. I really hope FOOW is making too much of the melt driven by Pacific water influx through the Bering Strait!

    On a related note, this animation of Mercator Ocean observations shows increased warmth approaching the Bering Sea currently:

    index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3017.0;a

    Crunch time, or 'a lot of hot air'... or rather, water?

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    I think some of the Beaufort sea ice will retreat between now and September and how much survives is the big question. The weather is certainly helping as much as it can because I've barely seen any heat coming in from Alaska this summer and I believe summer there has not been overly warm(unlike last year) so far. Still time for an Beaufort high to develop mind but nothing is in the forecast. 

    The CAB high is continuing to dominate but perhaps hints it could be on the move to the ESS, which is no better as we could bring in warmth at lower levels into the mix. Wind direction continues to suggest further compaction and we saw a huge compact/melt in the Laptev between the 12th and 13th on worldview. Just how far will the ice edge reach, we are seeing quite dramatic changes in the Atlantic front also. 

    Exciting times I got to admit, it's not nice too see but it will be interesting if a compact ice cover will be helpful by the end of the melt season or whether high SSTS will overpower it all and continues melting at record lows

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    It's hard to see the Beaufort sea ice melting out any time soon, so long as it's being consistently replenished from the thick central pack. While Alaska has had a cool summer thus far, the heat across the rest of the Arctic has extended over most of the Beaufort sea too.

    composite_925.thumb.gif.3e7c52035ef46485023755cd1b9e234c.gif

    That being said, there's always talk of infiltration of warmer, saltier water into the Arctic. It's a tricky thing to actually measure, and harder still to determine how the transport of such water has varied over any timescale. There is certainly going to be some flow of warm water in, but tracking, measuring and attributing changes to it is really quite a stretch.

    It's also relatively normal for the coastal waters to heat up rapidly as the continental shelf is incredibly shallow across much of the Arctic. When I was doing field work near the Mackenzie delta in 2017 I had to hop out of a boat about a kilometre out to sea to push it after getting stuck in mud. The water was comfortably warm!

    In terms of the weather, the Arctic is often less predictable beyond the 5 day range than even the UK! For now, all we can really say is that the high pressure is set to continue for the rest of the week.

    The difference between 2020 and the lowest year on PIOMAS dropped from 1.7 to 0.7 thousand km^3 during June, so it will be fascinating to see if trend has continued through July. Fingers crossed for a mid month update before the end of the week!

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Didn't we record record amounts of input through Bering over the 2007 'record' summer?

    We have also noted Pacific diatoms (specific to the Pacific) now in the central Atlantic so the 'flow' into the basin from the Pacific is making it around the basin and out through Fram (as well as the odd Grey Whale taking in the sights of the med?) so the import of salinity/temp must also be running at high levels esp. over summer?

    I know the Beauford has its own 'gyre' (when pressure/winds allow!) and receives a lot of fresh water from the major rivers emptying into the basin so can have quite a 'lens' of fresh trapped over the top of the gyre but is the increase of Pacific waters aiding it to 'mix up' that old mix?

    In the least the influx must have impacts on the halocline in that region so alter refreeze/melt potentials where the layer is lost/damaged?

    This is what I've been saying this past decade, no matter the end numbers over melt season the changes to the basin have continued apace!

    The other concern is just how close certain regions have sailed to full 'melt out' at seasons end?

    Will it just take that extra 2 weeks of high melt over peak insolation to see some areas 'blink out' come late Aug?

    Certainly an interesting one folks!

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    3 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

    Didn't we record record amounts of input through Bering over the 2007 'record' summer?

    We have also noted Pacific diatoms (specific to the Pacific) now in the central Atlantic so the 'flow' into the basin from the Pacific is making it around the basin and out through Fram (as well as the odd Grey Whale taking in the sights of the med?) so the import of salinity/temp must also be running at high levels esp. over summer?

    I know the Beauford has its own 'gyre' (when pressure/winds allow!) and receives a lot of fresh water from the major rivers emptying into the basin so can have quite a 'lens' of fresh trapped over the top of the gyre but is the increase of Pacific waters aiding it to 'mix up' that old mix?

    In the least the influx must have impacts on the halocline in that region so alter refreeze/melt potentials where the layer is lost/damaged?

    This is what I've been saying this past decade, no matter the end numbers over melt season the changes to the basin have continued apace!

    The other concern is just how close certain regions have sailed to full 'melt out' at seasons end?

    Will it just take that extra 2 weeks of high melt over peak insolation to see some areas 'blink out' come late Aug?

    Certainly an interesting one folks!

    Yep 2007 did have alot of heat entering via the Bering Stright and SSTS were very high, I think they were even higher in 2019 but I might be wrong on that one? 

    I agree with Grey Wolf, some years really did flatter to deceive in the extent side of things with lots of fragmented ice but other years did seem more true in the final numbers. Given how compact this ice pack is so far, you imagine 2020s final figure will represent a more accurate figure than say 2016 for example. That said, what we are also seeing is the continuation of extent being very low and currently at record low s with a comfortable lead, that is newsworthy for me. 

    The only hope I have for this year is a compacted pack may mean  when the weather turns cooler in the Arctic after mid August, we may see a slow down aslong the ice is still compacted by then. I'm not overly convinced it will be but we shall see. Besides warm SSTS may override it anyways. One other crumb of comfort, at least the SSTS so far are not as high as last year on the Pacific side of the basin but the Laptev is very warm so 6 and 2 threes really. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Huge gap on the ADS extent now, almost 325k below the next lowest year. 

    Both the GFS and ECM suggesting the high pressure may, at least temporarily, weaken after the weekend. Something to keep an eye on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    4 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Huge gap on the ADS extent now, almost 325k below the next lowest year. 

    Both the GFS and ECM suggesting the high pressure may, at least temporarily, weaken after the weekend. Something to keep an eye on.

    If anything, the forecasts are threatening to get even worse for the ice. The Arctic high is forecast to drift towards the ESS and link up with a heat dome building in Siberia. If the connection is successful then a huge dome of heat at both higher and lower levels will hit the basin and increase SSTS even more.

    The current record low is just extraordinary, the lack of thicknesses in the Siberian arctic thanks mainly to the winter season is showing its hands. Let's hope for an Arctic high domination this winter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Very worrying low for this stage of the season!

    With what G.S. just posted you can see that any 'change' to the current set up across the basin does not mean the ice will be spared but rather face a new set of melt forcings (be it from export to warmed waters to import if the Siberian heat?)

    Better just hope Aug doesn't see a decline in pressure and the formation of lows to stir up the last of the ice?

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    3 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

    If anything, the forecasts are threatening to get even worse for the ice. The Arctic high is forecast to drift towards the ESS and link up with a heat dome building in Siberia. If the connection is successful then a huge dome of heat at both higher and lower levels will hit the basin and increase SSTS even more.

    The current record low is just extraordinary, the lack of thicknesses in the Siberian arctic thanks mainly to the winter season is showing its hands. Let's hope for an Arctic high domination this winter. 

    I genuinely had an OMFG moment, which is rare for me, when viewing the 00z ECM this morning. It really takes the sequence you've described to the extreme - more so than GFS.

    image.thumb.png.1b60b458c099debaa5435e5e25e6b266.png  image.thumb.png.bb65d7b68e7fb2dc58e3e80702dc462f.png

    The only worse thing that could happen is the high heading across western Canada instead and setting up a classic Arctic Dipole while having the high-end heat across the western USA to tap into. So, at least there's no sign of that - but frankly, this is a small positive in the face of such potent heat being drawn in from NE Asia via the high drifting across to the Bering Sea.


    There's a possibility that this sequence doesn't unfold as soon, though. It follows the high being forecast to stay centrally-focused for another 5 days from now. This is the same longevity as has been predicted for the past 4 days. Each new day, another near-stationary day is added!

    Not sure if that would be better or worse overall, though. More time for the high to directly impact the CAB sea ice while the sun's still strong enough or low-level fog still warm enough, while also giving the heat over NE Asia more time to build up. Unless, of course, something else shifts the pattern there.

     

    All this, when the sea ice is already at record-low extent. Albeit an extent figure owing a lot to compaction of the high as a side-effect of the anticyclonic turning - area hasn't been record low for a number of days now. On the other hand, that likely has a lot to do with melt ponds in the CAB either draining or becoming obscured by shallow fog. There might even be some open water being obscured by now - all that additional moisture in a relatively calm, descending air environment seems likely to promote some shallow fog formation.

    A positive there - fog has lower albedo than water so in theory, more solar energy should be reflected away. If there's a big, fog-clearing blast of unusually warm air as the high moves away, however...!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    While extent losses have been impressive over the last 3 weeks, surprisingly (NSIDC at least), they haven't been record breaking.

    IceLoss3week.thumb.png.92fa08370507921b18eb89aced1758b9.png

    Just 3rd lowest, beaten by 2007 and, surprisingly, 2013. However, in terms of the percentage of extent lost, 2013 and 2020 are both equal at a whopping 32% of the June 23rd value.

    Looking at the SLP anomalies for all the years that lost more than 2 million km2, we see a broadly similar pattern, high pressure dominating. Though once more, 2013 throws in a surprise!

    SLP07.thumb.gif.a91c63f169b210c8825b038192e33cfb.gifSLP09.thumb.gif.a5161e4845ed3fe5acbed504032cdda3.gifSLP11.thumb.gif.ce0b128e689814e2eb2a513ca3756c4d.gifSLP12.thumb.gif.a969db6011ac7f3747a25df648f31ff3.gifSLP13.thumb.gif.10bb53f10280c5a0689b6110da91853e.gifSLP14.thumb.gif.5d07f6d4c693f16d4ec993e2a5b28ccb.gifSLP19.thumb.gif.4157cca39fde514ff529b7c8a19af9ef.gifSLP20.thumb.gif.81e508be4b54ec6aeaa3c77ea71b5ea1.gif

    Interestingly, the 850hPa temperature anomalies weren't particularly striking in many of those years, with 2020 appearing the most anomalously warm.

     

    850T07.thumb.gif.adb7d9f3c6fc0bc68e5ecf87d1c0bfc6.gif850T09.thumb.gif.fb904551d80d2d37ff257ef9de4fbb88.gif850T11.thumb.gif.396796cdf584cfa1f7eb9308b2f55bdb.gif850T12.thumb.gif.87f6c60ce77b3a0dbe6e95c4ed97db34.gif850T13.thumb.gif.03de03a321128335178fde20c96c0dda.gif850T14.thumb.gif.9fbc05fdd0145e7e1ef7ebd9b8fd2d8c.gif850T19.thumb.gif.0966dd5539f28742ed2fb6629366a420.gif850T20.thumb.gif.34922b33ed486bf7aaf4cd09da20fd4d.gif

     

    What's to be taken from this? Not really too sure. The anomaly of 2013 may be related to it entering the melt season with a battered and low volume pack after the 2012 minimum. However, we are certainly capable of achieving extreme levels of extent loss without a strong high pressure or even warm temperatures in the other years. I'd hazard a guess that solar heating due to clear skies and compaction under high pressure are important, but they'll need some further work to tease out the details (if at all possible).

    Something to ponder for a bit!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Nice bit of research there BFTV!👍

    The one thing those years all have in common is... they're all within the last 13. Perhaps raw climate warming has a lot to do with it?

    You've demonstrated very well that high pressure is all that's needed to cause a strong melting period during the peak solar weeks. Hence, having that and exceptionally high 850s this year has been so alarming. 

    2011 is a fascinating case - it's the most similar year to 2020 for the period, but a big shift to more ice-friendly conditions occurred in the 2nd half of July, slamming the breaks on that melt season. Not before it had hammered volume so much that it helped set the stage for 2012's record-large losses, though.

    2012, we see that the classic Arctic Dipole pattern did a lot of damage. What's interesting is that, when isolating the individual dates that saw the largest daily volume losses in each month, both the June & August composites show a clear Arctic Dipole pattern, but July has a centrally-positioned high instead. So, 2012 was a bit unusual in that respect.

    JuneArctic5thPCVolChangeDays_MSLPA.thumb.jpg.691fcc6b828b627c88dc991083ee80c5.jpg  JulyArctic5thPCVolChangeDays_MSLPA.thumb.jpg.823141245dd4edc0083ec4d5faf242f0.jpg  AugustArctic5thPCVolChangeDays_MSLPA.thumb.jpg.95c596ef986101af3012e14a370cd831.jpg
     

    2013, I agree the legacy of 2012 was a big player there. Such a strong impact from weather hardly different to climatology away from a cold and stormy Greenland.

    2014 is a surprise to me, as I find it to be one of the least memorable melting seasons - lost in the shadow of what went before and after (2015 had that potent high in July, then 2016 all those eye-widening CAB area losses).

    2019, I'm sure we all remember well. It was arguably 2020's 2011... it's interesting to reflect on where 2012 began its melting season - with some of the highest sea ice coverage seen in years. Just like 2020.

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  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Another big ADS drop, 151k. This takes us below 7 million km2 for the earliest point on record, and below 11 of the previous 40 minima already.

    I suspect that when the NSIDC sort their issues out and update their extent, we'll see some huge drops there too.

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  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    An animation of the ADS concentration values at 5 days increments, from June 30th to July 15th.

    4eh6nAQ.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Looking at a few of the latest runs by ECM and GFS is really quite troubling indeed. GFS spins up a low that almost looks like a tropical cyclone wrapped in 10c+ uppers going right over the pole more or less.. pretty much the last thing the ice would need right now. We aren’t even in August yet and still have another third of July yet to get through!! 

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  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    All the bad news updates about the Artic Ice are literarily pouring down in here now thick and fast.  July alone this year is going through pages of bad news.  At this rate a BOE is going to happen this year.   The fact that the above mentioned Low over the North Pole has 10C+ 850hpa temperatures shows its a not a good old Polar Low but a mid latitude or even subtropical storm forming out-of-bounds.  A good old Polar Low would have 850hpa temperatures at least 15C colder than that.  The tropics are literally invading the Artic.  :oldsad:

    Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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