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BornFromTheVoid

COVID-19 Pandemic

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Posted (edited)

Vallance: The immune reaction that some suffer, tends to be around day5/6, that is where the real problem cases appear i.e. the severe breathing issue.

Virus shedding, in most people, happens after 4/5 days of symptoms.

Edited by Bristle boy
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2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Vallance: 44,000 tests done, so far, in the UK. Keeps UK in top 5 for numbers tested.

Something positive, but in terms of tests per capita, not even top 10. Not awful stats, but could certainly be better. 

covid19-tests-per-million-people.png?v=6
OURWORLDINDATA.ORG

Most recent data available from official sources as of 13 March 2020 - 9.00GMT

 

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Posted (edited)

I'm back!

Firstly 'Spanish flu is 'H1N1' which we all saw a decade ago? The 'recombination' that turned it into the killer it was not in the last zoonotic transfer in the America's that lead to the 09/10 outbreak but it does serve to highlight that both Flu and Coronavirus do alter over time with the phase when it transfers to the new host the period with the greatest potential to 'alter' its M.O. as it settles into that new host species?

Bad news from Europe for all those thinking this was an 'elderly & at risk' illness;

So just be careful out there folks!

We still do not know how it is impacting us here in the UK yet and the virus we are studying is at least 2 weeks old.... drift/recombination happens in 1 person over a matter of hours and that new 'flavour' is then set to be spread far and wide (as we saw in September 1918?:)

Let's not get too 'cocky' about this illness, if not for your sake then for the sake of the loved ones around you?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Looking to defo put in place an antibody test, for those who have had COVID-19, so further understand the virus, which will hopefully place us in a better pos if 2nd wave comes.

I want to take one of these. It would be useful if they rolled it out to those who were never tested for Covid to see who's had it and not shown symptoms/had extremely mild symptoms.

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Just now, BornFromTheVoid said:

Something positive, but in terms of tests per capita, not even top 10. Not awful stats, but could certainly be better. 

covid19-tests-per-million-people.png?v=6
OURWORLDINDATA.ORG

Most recent data available from official sources as of 13 March 2020 - 9.00GMT

 

Fair enough, but i'm listening to one of the scientists in charge of UK response, who once again is coming across as open, measured and quite calming, esp after yesterday evening's Imperial College paper. But, yes, take your point?

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Just now, Azazel said:

I want to take one of these. It would be useful if they rolled it out to those who were never tested for Covid to see who's had it and not shown symptoms/had extremely mild symptoms.

You could take a demographically representative sample. I still think they should involve the private sector to reduce the strain on the NHS.

Get them to do tests in the community and leave the NHS to test in hospital .

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Just now, nick sussex said:

 I still think they should involve the private sector to reduce the strain on the NHS.

Get them to do tests in the community and leave the NHS to test in hospital .

Exactly what Vallance has just said, Nick. You need to grab a place on 'Patrick's team'?

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Is there any chart showing how many people are needing intensive care each day in the UK due to Covid19 ?

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4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Fair enough, but i'm listening to one of the scientists in charge of UK response, who once again is coming across as open, measured and quite calming, esp after yesterday evening's Imperial College paper. But, yes, take your point?

To be fair, the data I posted is a few days old. Daily test numbers have increased a little since then, which would place us about 10th. That's without considering improvements in other countries though.

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1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I think this is getting very blurred now. Obviously the end game is removing the virus out of human circulation. But there are vast differences between mitigation and suppression, both obviously want the same end game. Just one is literally aiming to take a couple of months and one will probably take as long as it takes to make a vaccine.
Not surprise to see most countries trying to suppress the outbreaks at the moment, that isn’t to say that the mitigation idea won’t be revisited later on once we process more information on this virus.

The reality is that no-one’s health system is capable of coping with this, so even mitigating it is needing virtually the same countermeasures as suppression. 

Surprisingly enough, it turns out that the ‘information’ out of China may have understated some key parameters of the epidemic. Not too difficult to ascertain earlier imho given observations of the clearly faked and underreported data, and the actions they took on the ground which they couldn’t hide.

 

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Exactly what Vallance has just said, Nick. You need to grab a place on 'Patrick's team'?

I’m too gobby and would go off message ! And likely get fired ! But I’m really happy to see this move with the private sector.

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Trump calling it the Chinese virus again. It originated in China due to their horrible wet markets and I would blame the Chinese government for this because they reopened these wet markets 4 months after SARS. Thus endangering the world to this possible scenario we see before us . 

However its extremely dangerous to refer to it as the Chinese virus and the WHO explicitly choose COVID-19 to be nondescript, and that was exactly the point when the WHO revealed it to guard against stigmatization of the place from which it originated. 

So from playing it down constantly to be greatly under control, flu is worse, a hoax etc now that he admits its a problem and can't attack his way out of it and pretend it's fake he still has to play the blame game. Hence calling it the Chinese virus. He's a pig. I feel desperately sorry for Asians who will suffer racist attacks because of this because it will certainly increase in the US after this.  Is it Trumps fault that Asian people were racially abused up to this point? Absolutely not. But going forward it may well be his fault, he's opened himself up to that. 

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New cases could start to fall in two to three weeks

 

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2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Exactly what Vallance has just said, Nick. You need to grab a place on 'Patrick's team'?

I agree with this. They should also mobilise same to continue track and trace. It’s preposterous to abandon that because a central function couldn’t cope in terms of capacity

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11 minutes ago, Tamara said:

 I have started skim reading the Coronavirus thread and reading factual/information based posts rather than reading each post. It is of course extremely worrying for all of us and I have had plenty of my own bad patches like most. But too many posts are apocalyptic in nature and the need for some self preservation is urgent.

Thank you @Tamara - if only everybody on this forum was a sensible as you.  Great post ??

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1 minute ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

To be fair, the data I posted is a few days old. Daily test numbers have increased a little since then, which would place us about 10th. That's without considering improvements in other countries though.

I suspect other countries who have had severe uptick in last few days, would have seen a large uptick in cases tested (obvious statement i know). Just think our testing numbers arent as bad as some in the media are saying.

He has just gone on to the school closure issue.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I’m too gobby and would go off message ! And likely get fired ! But I’m really happy to see this move with the private sector.

Just spoke with my Friend from close to Mulhouse. He said the hospital is over run and a Doctor on local TV said if they don't get help they'll have to choose who save in 24 hours time. Getting more desperate by the minute there. 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Trump calling it the Chinese virus again. It originated in China due to their horrible wet markets and I would blame the Chinese government for this because they reopened these wet markets 4 months after SARS. Thus endangering the world to this possible scenario we see before us . 

However its extremely dangerous to refer to it as the Chinese virus and the WHO explicitly choose COVID-19 to be nondescript, and that was exactly the point when the WHO revealed it to guard against stigmatization of the place from which it originated. 

So from playing it down constantly to be greatly under control, flu is worse, a hoax etc now that he admits its a problem and can't attack his way out of it and pretend it's fake he still has to play the blame game. Hence calling it the Chinese virus. He's a pig. I feel desperately sorry for Asians who will suffer racist attacks because of this because it will certainly increase in the US after this.  Is it Trumps fault that Asian people were racially abused up to this point? Absolutely not. But going forward it may well be his fault, he's opened himself up to that. 

But ‘Spanish Flu’ and ‘German Measles’ are ok? 

Edited by Beanz
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1 minute ago, Donegal said:

Just spoke with my Friend from close to Mulhouse. He said the hospital is over run and a Doctor on local TV said if they don't get help they'll have to choose who save in 24 hours time. Getting more desperate by the minute there. 

The USA already talking about being a matter of days away from the kind of 'Triage' we read about in Italy?

If we do find that we have run headlong into the pandemic here in the UK then we will be close behind?

In 2 weeks time the numbers of folk sick/isolated will tell their own tale?

I just hope there are enough drivers still able to work as things would get plenty 'ify' if not?

What is it with the ruling Elite in the UK and their reliance upon the "Short, sharp, shock" approach to everything?

Do they have no patience and need everything 'right Now!' (or I'll scweam and scweam until I'm sick!!!)???

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9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

New cases could start to fall in two to three weeks

 

Yes and he is hoping with the measures in place the total deaths could be below 20,000

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Just now, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

Seems very sensible. If they are routine then fine. Main concern though is the limited respiratory equipment - in fact, that issue is huge.

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Posted (edited)

407 new cases in UK says NHS England 

1950 confirmed cases

Edited by Bristle boy
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