COVID-19 Pandemic

[Methuselah]

If only Boris had 70 million COVID-19 test-kits stashed away somewhere, things would be a whole lot easier?

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

If only Boris had 70 million COVID-19 test-kits stashed away somewhere, things would be a whole lot easier?

10-minute home testing kits are going to be out within 3 weeks according to Channel 4. Pharmacies will have them first this week.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Summer Sun

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, beatpete said:

Took mine out of school last Wednesday, some though I was crazy, don't think anyone will go in Monday irrelevant of what gov say.

So, have you been to an empty supermarket this weekend? 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Unless we can test everyone, the mortality rate will have a false percentage. A complete waste of time as said above. 

[HighPressure]

I know nothing about Virus's but I can do maths and stats, it is clear that events are leading the way and not the government, weather its people self isolating or events simply being postponed, the people do seem to be ahead of the game.

We are not anyway close to being 3-4 weeks behind Italy, maybe a week - 10days with the pace of infection as it appears to be. The plan of a few days ago to start the delay phase appears to me to be way to late, this thing is coming through like an express train, and we are going to get a very high spike, albeit in a shorter space of time then was being projected just a day or 2 ago.

The stats do say to me we are 2 weeks to late in introducing the delay and social distancing phase, the horse has already bolted IMO.  

[kold weather]

Just now, HighPressure said:

 

We are not anyway close to being 3-4 weeks behind Italy, maybe a week - 10days with the pace of infection as it appears to be. The plan of a few days ago to start the delay phase appears to me to be way to late, this thing is coming through like an express train, and we are going to get a very high spike, albeit in a shorter space of time then was being projected just a day or 2 ago.

 

My statisitics put us roughly 6-7 days behind Germany (though now we have changed our cases measuremeant, we may not be able to prove that) and something in the ballpark of 14 days from Italy (maybe a little more).

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

10-minute home testing kits are going to be out within 3 weeks according to Channel 4. Pharmacies will have them first this week.

Aye...But who'd want to queue in Tesco, for hours, in the company of umpteen wheezers and sneezers?

I think I'll be safer self-isolating, and relying on my stock of paracetamol!

[Snipper]

4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Unless we can test everyone, the mortality rate will have a false percentage. A complete waste of time as said above. 

Testing must involve a lot of people.  Might it be better for them to be helping with health care and not getting data for working out the statistics? 

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Aye...But who'd want to queue in Tesco, for hours, in the company of umpteen wheezers and sneezers?

I think I'll be safer self-isolating, and relying on my stock of paracetamol!

.. Sorry but that made me giggle.. Sounds like you have a good supply there.. How many packets have you got? 

[Zak M]

 

[Gowon]

The Hanks family seem to be doing well.

Coronavirus: Tom Hanks shares update on health following diagnosis

WWW.MSN.COM

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Coronavirus: Tom Hanks shares update on health following diagnosis

 

[beatpete]

17 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

So, have you been to an empty supermarket this weekend? 

No l,ve been closing my business, raided our stock cupboard, being in hospitality I have plenty of loo roll and cleaning products in stock

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

.. Sorry but that made me giggle.. Sounds like you have a good supply there.. How many packets have you got? 

Enough!

Another thing, though: if I were infected and went off to Tesco, how many folks would I infect on my way there? How many people will leave their homes, and be clear of infection, only to pick-up COVID-19 whilst buying their test kits?

Coughs & sneezes spread diseases...except when buying a test-kit!

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, kold weather said:

For any possible broken bone I try where possible to avoid A&E and go to minor injuries units, I had to go to one on Monday due to a busted knee. However I get your point, so many people go for reasons that aren't really worth it.

People are going to have to go abit more old school over the next few months otherwise the NHS little hope of surviving is going to be made to 0.

I've heard that Great Western Hotels will offer up beds and space in some of their hotels to make temporary hospitals. That is a great start if that can be done!

I imagine they will be losing lots of business in other ways, so probably a good idea to use hotels in this way! 

[Emz by the Thames]

Did Italy really have their first case and their first death on the same day?? 

Edited March 15, 2020 by Team Squirrel

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Enough!

Another thing, though: if I were infected and went off to Tesco, how many folks would I infect on my way there? How many people will leave their homes, and be clear of infection, only to pick-up COVID-19 whilst buying their test kits?

Coughs & sneezes spread diseases...except when buying a test-kit!

Maybe we'll be able to order them off Amazon?

[SnowBear]

2 minutes ago, beatpete said:

No l,ve been closing my business, raided our stock cupboard, being in hospitality I have plenty of loo roll and cleaning products in stock

I saw you mention earlier in the thread that you have a number of holiday homes. I am really hoping you can ride this out, those that can and once this is all over could be in for a little bit of a boom in domestic holidays I feel as the international market will be in a real mess and those in the UK who have not had holidays this year or had to cancel ones overseas could look to our home markets for a break later on. 

 

[Ryukai]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Breaking: Italy report 3,590 new cases and 368 new deaths

total now 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths

That's an average of 1 person dying every 4 mins, in the last 24 hours, just in Italy 

[emax]

Just now, SnowBear said:

I saw you mention earlier in the thread that you have a number of holiday homes. I am really hoping you can ride this out, those that can and once this is all over could be in for a little bit of a boom in domestic holidays I feel as the international market will be in a real mess and those in the UK who have not had holidays this year or had to cancel ones overseas could look to our home markets for a break later on. 

 

Looking at the future, I think this is very likely, at least in the short term afterwards anyway. So thats a minor positive at least.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, emax said:

Hospital testing. Thats how you know its bad enough. Its certainly not ideal, but community testing is NEVER EVER going to give you an accurate enough figure, not now anyway, so why waste resources on it?

Random testing of the public, though, would give some sense of the actual figures.

Test 1000 people every three days. If 10 return a positive, then that's 1%, so roughly 700,000 infected (give or take a suitable margin for error).

Then we can get some sense of proportion on the mortality rate.

At the moment, the proportion is only between those who have died and those whose symptoms were bad enough to merit testing. 

If through this method we find the actual death rate is far lower, public panic will decrease, and the economy will benefit from improved confidence. 

[emax]

2 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

That's an average of 1 person dying every 4 mins, in the last 24 hours, just in Italy 

In the UK, on average in winter, someone dies every single minute. Obviously the extra deaths are on top, and its still bad clearly, but it does make it sound that bit worse when specific deaths are recorded.

[Dorsetbred]

Sorry a tad bit late to the discussion, do we thing the UKMetO are one of the PM's sources of info?

[beatpete]

1 minute ago, SnowBear said:

I saw you mention earlier in the thread that you have a number of holiday homes. I am really hoping you can ride this out, those that can and once this is all over could be in for a little bit of a boom in domestic holidays I feel as the international market will be in a real mess and those in the UK who have not had holidays this year or had to cancel ones overseas could look to our home markets for a break later on. 

 

Thanks, l hope so soon, it's the virus ability to remain on surfaces that just makes it too unsafe for cleaning staff. We have just switched everything off and locked up, to reduce our outgoings, will use the time for maintenance. We,ve got quite low borrowing compared to some so can hopefully ride it out and spend more time with the family in meantime I 

[emax]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Random testing of the public, though, would give some sense of the actual figures.

Test 1000 people every three days. If 10 return a positive, then that's 1%, so roughly 700,000 infected (give or take a suitable margin for error).

Then we can get some sense of proportion on the mortality rate.

At the moment, the proportion is only between those who have died and those whose symptoms were bad enough to merit testing. 

If through this method we find the actual death rate is far lower, public panic will decrease, and the economy will benefit from improved confidence. 

Oh I agree with that, but, that unfortunately has to come later. Using any resources available to increase the NHS capacity is better than using those resources to crudely estimate a CFR, just to make people feel better. Its pretty clear, people will panic unnecessarily no mater what is done, so I think we're past trying to calm the public now. Any available resources need to be used to prepare for if and most likely when, the NHS is overwhelmed.

[Summer Sun]

Horse racing going behind closed doors in the UK