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Storm Dennis Atlantic Storm 4

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Got a bad feeling regarding Dennis,came over high Pennies yesterday,the run off from snow melt was huge,flood after flood. Where this storms water will go is only one way,down hill rapidly with no catchment at all. Very worrying to say the least.

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Yikes! The GFS is showing upper 60mph gusts for me throughout today and tomorrow. Just wondering how much I can trust the GFS, as the UKV is showing significantly lower, and I haven't had much experience with each models characteristics e.g overplays wind, underplays rain etc. Considering that in the Ciara chat there were mentions of the GFS being accurate on wind, Im asking if I should take 60-65 mph gusts seriously or not?

image.thumb.png.ae4da097febc05b46dcef725e142466c.pngimage.thumb.png.af1cb97504a86f4dc931d3fb85ea1a2a.png

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1 hour ago, matty40s said:

So what idiocy will we see today.

Shorts and Tshirted hikers rescued from Snowdon.

People being washed into the sea in Newquay whilst taking selfies.....with a dozen surfers in the background.

2 BMW floating in Hebden Bridge high street whilst owners nipped in for a pint of milk from the shop.

5 members of Netweather saying the MetOffice got it all wrong again as their house had not been destroyed by next doors tree.

You should do a "12 days of Christmas" style thing - I'll start you off " seven surfers sinking, six cars a'floating"...

The climber rescue thing really annoyed me. All those resources wasted for some silly buggers who went out in bloomin' trainers. Someone in real need could have lost their life. Grrrr!

Edited by Spikecollie
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11 minutes ago, markyo said:

Got a bad feeling regarding Dennis,came over high Pennies yesterday,the run off from snow melt was huge,flood after flood. Where this storms water will go is only one way,down hill rapidly with no catchment at all. Very worrying to say the least.

Forecast rain chart for 24 hours

feb11dennisrainwe.png

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Rain has just arrived now. Should be able to soap the car down in a bit and let the rain wash it off. ?

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7 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

You should do a "12 days of Christmas" style thing - I'll start you off " seven surfers sinking, six cars a'floating"...

The climber rescue thing really annoyed me. All those resources wasted for some silly buggers who went out in bloomin' trainers. Someone in real need could have lost their life. Grrrr!

And a half-wit in a pear treeee!?

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Wind gusting to the low 40's here, at the moment. Rain arrived late.

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9 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Rain has just arrived now. Should be able to soap the car down in a bit and let the rain wash it off. ?

Glad someone else does that. I often wait until heavy rain to wash my car!

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Squall line in the making, anyone? ?

squall.png

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7 minutes ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

Is it just me or is that lightning in the heart of the storm? lightningmaps

I noticed that. A fair amount of lightning too.

Looking at the radar, a little squall feature looks like it's the lightning producer.

lightning1.png

lightning2.png

radar.png

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35 minutes ago, MetWeather said:

Yikes! The GFS is showing upper 60mph gusts for me throughout today and tomorrow. Just wondering how much I can trust the GFS, as the UKV is showing significantly lower,

image.thumb.png.ae4da097febc05b46dcef725e142466c.pngimage.thumb.png.af1cb97504a86f4dc931d3fb85ea1a2a.png

It wouldn`t surprise me with latest upgrade more damaging wind to come.

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

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24 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

New Amber warning now issues to include Cardiff

 

Going on Severity that warning will likely be upgraded to a red if it looks likely to become true. Both Met and EA are really worried about the risk to South Wales it seems.

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3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I noticed that. A fair amount of lightning too.

Looking at the radar, a little squall feature looks like it's the lightning producer.

lightning1.png

lightning2.png

radar.png

Thats makes last weekeneds squall line look like mini mouse.

Edited by Snowyowl9
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Getting pretty rough at Porthcawl

porthcawl-lower-wht-e1465551246518.png
WWW.PORTHCAWL-LIFEBOAT.CO.UK

Adjusted for British Summer Time when applicable around the UK and Ireland coast each year. Know what to do: #RespectTheWater at Porthcawl in 2016...

Even though the tides been going out for an hour now the waves appear to be getting much larger with some getting big enough to breach over the wall ?

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From a reasonably quiet start early this morning conditions have deteriorated quite fast and we have already had several bursts of torrential rain accompanied by strong gusts.   I don't have a wind speed gauge but it feels and sounds like some of the gusts are heavier here than Ciara delivered.  Large trees are being shaken violently and just now there was a gust which really sounded like it was removing the roof.   However, the storm seems to be coming in waves as the rain is regularly fading away to almost nothing before the next wave comes through.  Its actually brightened up a bit while I have been writing this - strange.  Wind remains very strong, though.  I am hoping that the wind speed and gusts will not increase any further this afternoon but some of the models seem to say otherwise....  

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2 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Thats makes last weekeneds squall line look like mini mouse.

Quite a weak and small squall line by the looks of it!

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Just found this:

Farson Digital Watercams, the world's first network of HD cameras broadcasting live from the UK's and Republic of Ireland's waterways.

WWW.FARSONDIGITALWATERCAMS.COM

Hi-def webcam at Tewkesbury offering up to the second live imagery on River Avon (Central). With regular river reports from the area, and an extensive archive of...

A great resource if you're interested in the spots where flood warnings have been issued.

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6 minutes ago, CharmlessMan said:

Just found this:

Farson Digital Watercams, the world's first network of HD cameras broadcasting live from the UK's and Republic of Ireland's waterways.

WWW.FARSONDIGITALWATERCAMS.COM

Hi-def webcam at Tewkesbury offering up to the second live imagery on River Avon (Central). With regular river reports from the area, and an extensive archive of...

A great resource if you're interested in the spots where flood warnings have been issued.

This is super, thanks for link.

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Literally nothing here in Hereford again wind wise, obv rain is going to be an issue though.

Either this forum gets over excited every time and those gfs models are always way off, or i just live in a sheltered area.

Met office has been more modest and correct.

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