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Storm Dennis Atlantic Storm 4

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2 hours ago, ancientsolar said:

so i'm under a redwarning, 
- there is a picture on facebook about the floods in Pontypridd, they are reaching the windowsills of the properties along the river front..

weather wise, the rain is much colder now, I can see a small squall line forming over pembrokshire, these things are lethal since they are not moving laterally quickly enough
Another Squall line over North Wales looks very developed and quite severe , may'be it will form right the way to the South.. who knows.

Stay safe man.

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5 minutes ago, Paul said:

You can navigate to it, the same as any other website on your mobile ?

 

Oh Thank you! Sorry that was kind off dumb of me to ask! 

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Slight lull in the rain. Further north and east of here have been hit very hard. But further rain expected here soon and some roads are underwater

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2 hours ago, steveinsussex said:

The red warning for South Wales a bit strange given the rain now cleared there?

Probably for water that's still to come down off surrounding hills, river ouse isn't expected to reach it's peak till tomorrow here in Yorkshire. 

Looking at radar there's still some rain to come this morning. 

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09z radar vs 03Z run of UKV for 09z, underestimating extent of rainfall across south Wales? Why sometimes it's best to nowcast rather than rely on models for critical weather.

871946312_Screenshot_20200216-091158_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.0ac437b38872dd74a9ceac939516034d.jpgviewimage-27.thumb.png.febba701d9d1b2e28e503c2309e78d07.png

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5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

09z radar vs 03Z run of UKV for 09z, underestimating extent of rainfall across south Wales? Why sometimes it's best to nowcast rather than rely on models for critical weather.

871946312_Screenshot_20200216-091158_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.0ac437b38872dd74a9ceac939516034d.jpgviewimage-27.thumb.png.febba701d9d1b2e28e503c2309e78d07.png

Come on, the moisture has come all the way from Mexico, a 100 miles out isnt a bad effort without power steering.

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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes and in any case the peak water levels can hit when rain has cleared as all the run off and water flowing downstream hasn't hit at that point.

How is that the job of the met office to warn rather than the environment agency?

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Well the Met Office got it right for us again yesterday as I got two 47mph gusts and one 49mph gust up the hill before I had to get back as my finger tips were getting very cold. They were the only ones mentioning peak gusts of around 50mph wears others had 60mph or even 70mph which was way to high.

Rain-wise, again the Met Office got it the closest with predictions anywhere from 15mm to 45mm in 24hrs for lower levels and we got 25mm or around 1inch.

 

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Pretty concerning this...

current predicted peak of flood in Shrewsbury tomorrow night will be almost 6m!!!

that would be worst flood ever here and top most the flood defences put up after the 2000 floods! 

got to hope that’s way wrong or everywhere down stream on the Severn from Welshpool over the next few days is going to be in big trouble!! 

https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/2036?direction=u

Crazy 

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4 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Well the Met Office got it right for us again yesterday as I got two 47mph gusts and one 49mph gust up the hill before I had to get back as my finger tips were getting very cold. They were the only ones mentioning peak gusts of around 50mph wears others had 60mph or even 70mph which was way to high.

Rain-wise, again the Met Office got it the closest with predictions anywhere from 15mm to 45mm in 24hrs for lower levels and we got 25mm or around 1inch.

 

Yeah I agree, these models seem to be way out, yet people seem to encourage their accuracy over the met office, even the meto app has been spot on.

Not even sure where the models are generating their speeds from either as just a quick look at the intensity of the part of the low pressure over the UK could see it wasnt conducive to 70mph winds.

Edited by sjw2511
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1 minute ago, Carl said:

How is that the job of the met office to warn rather than the environment agency?

Because its the Met Office that are forecasting the rain that will do the damage in the first place - think of Met Office rain warnings as kind of pre-warnings about where you are likely to get environment agency warnings, the environment agency warnings are for specific parts of inshore waters based on current levels.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Because its the Met Office that are forecasting the rain that will do the damage in the first place - think of Met Office rain warnings as kind of pre-warnings about where you are likely to get environment agency warnings, the environment agency warnings are for specific parts of inshore waters based on current levels.

Yeah I get that it's to do with impact on their risk matrix. Just find it a bit odd, as if there's an overlap which could cause problems at some point in the future.

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Severe flooding affecting Herefordshire today (and surrounding Counties).  Many roads shut and properties flooded.  River Wye not expected to peak until tomorrow morning - possibly around 5.5m - 5.8m which would be a recent record (it did hit 6m in the 1700's!) 

herefordshire-hereford-old-wye-bridge-lv
RIVERLEVELS.UK

River levels and flood alerts for the River Wye at Hereford Bridge, Herefordshire

 Rain continues to fall.

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Just now, SalopWatcher said:

Pretty concerning this...

current predicted peak of flood in Shrewsbury tomorrow night will be almost 6m!!!

that would be worst flood ever here and top most the flood defences put up after the 2000 floods! 

got to hope that’s way wrong or everywhere down stream on the Severn from Welshpool over the next few days is going to be in big trouble!! 

https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/2036?direction=u

Crazy 

Wow that is crazy, I used to live in Ironbridge, would that beat there floor barriers?

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5 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

Wow that is crazy, I used to live in Ironbridge, would that beat there floor barriers?

Think so. Would over top the expensive Frankwell flood barrier in Shrewsbury too which would be pretty devastating to the town! 

1:1000 year flood. 

Have to hope that prediction is way too bullish! 

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23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Because its the Met Office that are forecasting the rain that will do the damage in the first place - think of Met Office rain warnings as kind of pre-warnings about where you are likely to get environment agency warnings, the environment agency warnings are for specific parts of inshore waters based on current levels.

It's a bit like the SPC Outlooks being the warnings and the Watches/Tornado Warnings being the Flood Warnings.

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24 minutes ago, Carl said:

Yeah I get that it's to do with impact on their risk matrix. Just find it a bit odd, as if there's an overlap which could cause problems at some point in the future.

They do talk with each other you know.....

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21 minutes ago, Carl said:

Yeah I get that it's to do with impact on their risk matrix. Just find it a bit odd, as if there's an overlap which could cause problems at some point in the future.

Environment Agency do not warn of flooding from water run off as far as I am aware. 

This link, although for London, is typical for most councils highlights how tight the various agencies work together dependent on the alerts 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/severe_weather_and_natural_hazards_framework_v1.0.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjN4tCU7dXnAhWfSRUIHfGDAK8QFjABegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw1Msk8N7FTtWP1o8EN1Ri_H

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To be honest I don't really know why the Met Office red warning finishes at 11. It looks like there are still multiple hours of heavy rainfall to come.

Edited by MetWeather

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River Wye at Hereford, got a long way to go up yet!!

Screenshot_20200216-102446_Chrome.jpg

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1 hour ago, Paul said:

Animation of the last 24 hours:

 

Squall line quite visible moving SE in latter frames.

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