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Wind like this worries me. Many years ago (2003/4 I think), I was walking to a football match in Leicester (v Everton) on a very windy afternoon and came across the aftermath of a terrible incident where a large piece of wood had blown across the road in the storm and killed a man on his way to the game. The gentleman, an Everton supporter, was killed more or less instantly I believe. Such a tragic, random event.

So, stay safe everyone.

 

EDIT : found the link

WWW.LIVERPOOLECHO.CO.UK

THE family of an Everton fan killed by flying debris near Leicester's Walkers Stadium today paid tribute to a "real gentleman" who lived for football.

 

 

 

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A surfer missing in Sussex has been found alive. Great. Now they can send the moron a bill for the callout for his stupidity.  

You wont be lurking much longer if you are up on a roof tommorow 

Even doors are getting windy ?  

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Well the met forecast is already way off for me, current forecast 40 mph gusts and heavy rain shower... current weather light breeze and clear skies.

Edited by Ross90
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1 minute ago, Ross90 said:

Well the met forecast is already way off for me, current forecast 40 mph gusts and heavy rain shower... current weather light breeze and clear skies.

?

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Wind gusts will always vary between different weather models some tend to drastically underestimate them and others overestimate them. The wind direction can also make a big difference I know I'm sheltered from winds coming from the South I've had gusts over 60mph forecast from that direction and hardly a breeze outside but if I drive 5 minutes away the wind will suddenly pick straight up. Last year I tested which models predicted the gusts the best for a storm I used a number of locations and Met Office stations to record the results to ensure high accuracy. Aperge came out as the overall best followed by the ECM and yes even BBC Weather managed to do well. Other models that did decent were FMI and the GFS. The Met Office underestimated the wind speed on average across all locations by nearly 10mph off the actual highest recorded gust while Icon tended to overestimated the gusts.

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Currently in a caravan at a well known holiday park branch in Porthmadog, Wales and already the van is shaking like crazy! 
 

Gotta say I’m very worried for this weekend’s events. 

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Incredible.. GFS is still increasing the wind speeds for tomorrow.. I don't think I've ever seen the GFS increase wind speeds 24 hours out..

Approaching 80mph inland now.. 

317474947_ukgust(1).thumb.png.e969dccf013b5bf8286c1dd723853f40.png

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AROME has finally come into view for Sunday. Somewhat general agreement with other models, perhaps a little less winds in some places, but 60-65mph almost everywhere at some point. Plenty of 70mph spots too. The AROME might also give an indication of why there are Amber warnings in the SE and nowhere else (yet). Towards the very end of the run, a sort of 2nd wave of winds moves into the SE more or less within the warning area. Perhaps this extra time of sustained winds is what tilted the scales in the SE for the warning? May have been noticed in other models that the Met has. I still expect a widening of the warning area though.

Edited by Porto
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7 hours ago, stripeyfox said:

Wind like this worries me. Many years ago (2003/4 I think), I was walking to a football match in Leicester (v Everton) on a very windy afternoon and came across the aftermath of a terrible incident where a large piece of wood had blown across the road in the storm and killed a man on his way to the game. The gentleman, an Everton supporter, was killed more or less instantly I believe. Such a tragic, random event.

So, stay safe everyone.

 

EDIT : found the link

spacer.png
WWW.LIVERPOOLECHO.CO.UK

THE family of an Everton fan killed by flying debris near Leicester's Walkers Stadium today paid tribute to a "real gentleman" who lived for football.

 

 

 

Yes.. You've summed up my worries exactly.  Flying debris can be very dangerous indeed and sadly can, and does kill. 

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The Arpege, ECMWF, and GFS seem to be the main candidates for the strongest wind at the moment. To be honest I'm surprised that the models are not showing higher gusts for W Scotland considering the Isobars there. Living in North London I rarely get gusts over 45mph and this is an excitement for me considering gusts are being forecasted by multiple models of at least 65mph, as well as big weather sites on around 60. Still think that the MO really need to check the situation and upgrade the whole wind side of the storm.

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Ciara is also now showing on live surface pressure.. 

Scarily she is deeper than the GFS has her already... 

She is currently sitting at 968mb leaving the us north coast now.. GFS has it at 972 leaving the states on the 00z.. 

Some 4mb deeper than anticipated already.. 

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Metoffice mentioning just 'gales' in their text forecast for the Midlands tomorrow. That suggests 50-60mph to me. 

Some models showing 70-80mph across the Midlands though. 

Guess we'll see what happens with the warnings later on.

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RE met office warnings usually updated around 10-11am on a Saturday I believe.. depending on a few things they may issue some late this afternoon as well as confidence grows.. 

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I remain wary about giving warnings to family and friends about severe weather. To often I have been laughed at because of what has been hyped on here only to find it has gone north, south or not occurred at all.

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Maximum wind gust through to end Sunday on ARPEGE:

image.thumb.jpg.bdce6f944afed6f4bb0711d941f99214.jpg

Some consistency from this model with gusts up to 80 mph quite widely.

Arpege tends to have a bias towarss over doing winds.. Neverless I don't think many of us were expecting to see wind speeds increase further on this mornings runs.. 

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Maximum wind gust through to end Sunday on ARPEGE:

image.thumb.jpg.bdce6f944afed6f4bb0711d941f99214.jpg

Some consistency from this model with gusts up to 80 mph quite widely.

hold on to your hats chaps!

Lets see what the MetOffice do after they've finished their coffee and bagels and get round to updating the warnings (or not)

 

 

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I'm a lurker and don't post often.  BUT when is this storm due to start biting down in the South East.  I ask because I'm concerned if I need to make preps today.  Thanks all x

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2 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:

I'm a lurker and don't post often.  BUT when is this storm due to start biting down in the South East.  I ask because I'm concerned if I need to make preps today.  Thanks all x

I would say the winds will start to gradually increase by ~04:00 on Sunday morning. Hope this helps! 

Edited by LightningLover
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1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

I would say the winds will start to gradually increase by ~04:00 on Sunday morning. Hope this helps! 

Thank you...  It just gives me an idea.  I shall make sure everything is charged up.  And candles to hand x

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4 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:

I'm a lurker and don't post often.  BUT when is this storm due to start biting down in the South East.  I ask because I'm concerned if I need to make preps today.  Thanks all x

I would just tie down or bring inside anything that could be liable to fly off! Otherwise, not a lot you can do...

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18 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:

Thank you...  It just gives me an idea.  I shall make sure everything is charged up.  And candles to hand x

Don't forget to stock up on gin! 

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