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Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3


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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    I know, but if you look closely to the far left you'll see it forming. The one off Greenland is one I decoded using some software. 

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    A surfer missing in Sussex has been found alive. Great. Now they can send the moron a bill for the callout for his stupidity.  

    You wont be lurking much longer if you are up on a roof tommorow 

    Even doors are getting windy ?  

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    Posted
  • Location: Beverley
  • Location: Beverley
    1 minute ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

    I know, but if you look closely to the far left you'll see it forming. The one off Greenland is one I decoded using some software. 

    Apologies. I was looking at the tweet re the one near Greenland!! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    19 minutes ago, Nick L said:

    There will be gusts of around or above 70 in the Midlands. The Met Office need to be hammering this home but aren't!

    Hearing that a widespread amber warning will be issued tomorrow. Better late than never eh? I don't like to criticise fellow forecasters, but the Met Office really don't help themselves at times.

    How long is the risks of those inland 70mph winds though? It looks too me it's the winds that is ahead of the cold front where they will peak at those potential values and then die back once that cold front sweeps through during Sunday. 

    I do agree more areas should be in the Amber warning by now, could argue there should be an Amber warning for Cumbria given the potential for 12 hours if not more of heavy rain. 

    Then we got the Lee of the hills affect in NE England, I reckon winds could get very gusty around there.

    Lots to keep an eye on for sure. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dalrymple, Ayrshire, Scotland
  • Location: Dalrymple, Ayrshire, Scotland

    For those speaking of the warning system. Tbh, in Scotland, especially the west, 70mph - 90mph isn't completely out of the ordinary over the course of a winter, we are used to high winds and stormy weather. 90mph+ then I would expect to see some amber warnings, or red if it was expected through out the central belt as was the case during "Hurricane Bawbag" a few years ago. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex

    I know many on here don’t like (or are dismissive) weather apps. Looked at a few and none show the high wind figures  being thrown around on here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    27 minutes ago, Snipper said:

    I know many on here don’t like (or are dismissive) weather apps. Looked at a few and none show the high wind figures  being thrown around on here. 

    It's not just folk on here  fergie was constantly going on about the apps  and how they were computer generated    they certainly were not from a man at the met  looking at every location  and inputting  different permutations of weather      I'm going to met bash now  but I have often said  they are reactive not proactive  I guarantee  Amber's will go up tomorrow   something even us amateurs can see  

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Following on from the EC 12z ramping up the winds, the 18z ICON is rolling and this model has also upped the wind speeds. 
     

    Widespread 60-70mph gusts possibly 80-90mph for exposed locations coasts and hills, especially N Wales, NW England and S Scotland on this run. 

    Ciara is now engaging a very powerful jet stream and there still remains a level of uncertainty over the dynamics.
    At the moment it’s looking like Ciara may turn out to be more intense with higher impacts than currently modelled (until this evenings outputs) as this large system undergoes rapid intensification. 


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    Worth noting is the strength of wind tomorrow evening for parts of Wales, N England, Ireland and Scotland, quickly becoming  very windy across the UK during Saturday night. 
    64FB8D25-A0D3-4356-A1EF-BD8B48D29B1E.thumb.jpeg.c2851e48cdb183b0b8d2bdb9ee693409.jpeg
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    91AB9398-7D3E-4085-BCB5-64D7CD936904.thumb.jpeg.0335377c1fe0babec6829f17413ff813.jpeg

    Edited by DisruptiveGust
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    Posted
  • Location: Tottenham, N London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers
  • Location: Tottenham, N London
    26 minutes ago, Snipper said:

    I know many on here don’t like (or are dismissive) weather apps. Looked at a few and none show the high wind figures  being thrown around on here. 

    Noticed this too for the app forecasts for London. 

     BBC: 52, Met Office: 52, Accuweather: 42 (wtf?). Quite a difference between the 60-70mph+ forecasts elsewhere.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    Met Office/Beeb show around 55mph here which wouldn’t be anything noteworthy for these parts but I suspect they’re underestimating as they often do. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the Met app go above 60mph even though we’ve been up to 80mph in the past decade and 60-70mph countless times. That’s what being on the leeward side of a mountain range will do - Leeds city centre recorded a gust of 99mph in 1990.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    23 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

     

     

    Edited by weirpig
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    For myself, the BBC ever since the change in provider have been a lot slower than the Met in showing the correct winds. Sometimes just being outright wrong (Storm Brendan the BBC barely suggested even any gusts). However at this exact moment in time, the BBC peaks at 61mph (after showing 66mph earlier) and the Met 62mph (after showing 67mph earlier). These values seem potentially a little low and the downtrend is definitely interesting considering the models are currently going the other direction. This is of course all computer generated and likely delayed too. I don't even bother looking at Accuweather, its ironically the least accurate from previous experience.

    All in all who am I to say they're gonna end up wrong until it happens, it just feels like based on models they may be. If it turns out right, that yellow warning may be more accurate that im giving it credit for. (at least very hyper-locally)

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Latest GFS seems to suggest 70mph will be fairly widespread gust wise

    image.thumb.png.8a6a54c4830881d41e4c123ad6b1d410.png

    Peak winds pass through relatively quickly however. Strongest winds just ahead of the cold front.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    For me... Met: 56... BBC: 56... GFS 18z raw: 68... ECM raw was showing low 70s this morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

    The other thing that makes a mockery of it all is the fact they named it when they issued a yellow warning. I mean, it looked likely an amber warning would be issued at some point, but they have gone against their own criteria for naming storms. I've lost count the number of times this has happened!

    Apparently amber warning is not a prerequisite for naming a storm, rather a storm can be named if there is reasonable potential for an amber warning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    Latest GFS seems to suggest 70mph will be fairly widespread gust wise

    image.thumb.png.8a6a54c4830881d41e4c123ad6b1d410.png

    Peak winds pass through relatively quickly however. Strongest winds just ahead of the cold front.

    I've just wrote a post lambasting apps and the met  but how have they got gusts  peaking at just below 50mph  here?   Either they are correct  and our money as been well spent  and it's pointless looking at the models   or  they are  wrong and I demand a refund    I guess we will find out 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    For my area it seems there is a strong agreement of gusts of at least 60mph, with some models indicating gusts in the high 70's. I have a feeling the Met Office will extend their orange weather warning tomorrow to cover a significantly larger area.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Think it's harder to be more accurate with figures for potential gusts in a particular spot, particularly inland, than it is sustained wind speeds, strongest gusts can be quite random in speed, location  and duration. They can be enhanced too by topography, for example, lee of the Pennines gusts can be higher than the winward side. Also high buildings close to each other in urban areas can funnel strong winds and enhance gusts. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-super-Mare
  • Weather Preferences: Windy, rumbly, flashy or snowy.
  • Location: Weston-super-Mare

    For here in Weston-super-Mare I have BBC 57mph, MetO 55mph, GFS 60mph. So BBC going higher than Met Office but they have been bouncing all day between 52 and 60mph. X

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Think it's harder to be more accurate with figures for potential gusts in a particular spot, particularly inland, than it is sustained wind speeds, strongest gusts can be quite random in speed, location  and duration. They can be enhanced too by topography, for example, lee of the Pennines gusts can be higher than the winward side. Also high buildings close to each other in urban areas can funnel strong winds and enhance gusts. 

    Really ?   But nearly every model states  very high gusts inland   are the met just following their own model  and dismissing every other ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    You can see on the Infrared channels it's organising well and will soon be picked up by jetstream, if not already. 

    ir1.PNG

    ir2.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    13 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    Really ?   But nearly every model states  very high gusts inland   are the met just following their own model  and dismissing every other ? 

    They do, but it doesn't mean all those model grid points inland will reach those values, on the coasts more probable, as less friction and obstacles. But I don't disagree that gusts in excess of 70mph seem probable inland in places, but not blanket everywhere as the models suggest, I base this on experience of past high wind events and the wind gust readings compared to what the models predicted. But, still warrants larger area coverage of the amber warning nonetheless, given the risk of damaging gusts in any one place.

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Melton Mowbray
  • Location: Melton Mowbray
    26 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

    For my area it seems there is a strong agreement of gusts of at least 60mph, with some models indicating gusts in the high 70's. I have a feeling the Met Office will extend their orange weather warning tomorrow to cover a significantly larger area.  

    Well you're in the same neck of the woods as me. Looks like a rough night and day ahead...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    14 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    They do, but it doesn't mean all those model grid points inland will reach those values, on the coasts more probable, as less friction and obstacles. But I don't disagree that gusts in excess of 70mph seem probable inland in places, but not blanket everywhere as the models suggest, I base this on experience of past high wind evrnt readings compared yo ehst the models predicted. But, still warrants larger area coverage of the amber warning nonetheless, given the risk of damaging gusts in any one place.

    Thankyou  for your insight .My gripe really was with the met.   I remember storm doris   at that time we had a amber warning   winds reached  on the ground around 65 mph  and it caused  carnage  even a death.    It shouldn't mean anything about grid points  because they can vary , In my opinion  wind strength  brings more issues than snow.   When we can get a yellow warning for less than a inch 

    Edited by weirpig
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    40 minutes ago, Porto said:

    For myself, the BBC ever since the change in provider have been a lot slower than the Met in showing the correct winds. Sometimes just being outright wrong (Storm Brendan the BBC barely suggested even any gusts). However at this exact moment in time, the BBC peaks at 61mph (after showing 66mph earlier) and the Met 62mph (after showing 67mph earlier). These values seem potentially a little low and the downtrend is definitely interesting considering the models are currently going the other direction. This is of course all computer generated and likely delayed too. I don't even bother looking at Accuweather, its ironically the least accurate from previous experience.

    All in all who am I to say they're gonna end up wrong until it happens, it just feels like based on models they may be. If it turns out right, that yellow warning may be more accurate that im giving it credit for. (at least very hyper-locally)

    The BBC's ear was itching clearly. Back up to 67mph. Im sure the Met will follow suit in its next update. Kinda hard to ever really take seriously with swings like that. Mind you, wind is wind. Its not exactly a 100% predictable thing for gusts.

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