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44 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Or it could be using a rough grid point as reference, a location at sea perhaps, as it will be taken straight from the EC global model.

The Needles Old Battery on a 200+ foot cliff might see gusts like that I suppose but if they have used that to project to nearby towns (including an 88 mph at Southampton) it's a broken 'app'. Brighstone, 5 miles from Freshwater, is at a more sensible 72 mph max gust.

Edited by DaveL
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A surfer missing in Sussex has been found alive. Great. Now they can send the moron a bill for the callout for his stupidity.  

You wont be lurking much longer if you are up on a roof tommorow 

Even doors are getting windy ?  

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10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The UKV 18Z looks pretty interesting with regards to precip tomorrow.

viewimage.thumb.png.2ad3c7f4c3f1a951f2b30428b1d6d4c0.png 1029146778_viewimage(1).thumb.png.d3dc300d0ea14044186dbc9cc2f0708a.png

Yeah, for here the squall could be the most noteworthy thing, and a level 2 Estofex warning in winter must be very unusual.

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10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The UKV 18Z looks pretty interesting with regards to precip tomorrow.

viewimage.thumb.png.2ad3c7f4c3f1a951f2b30428b1d6d4c0.png 1029146778_viewimage(1).thumb.png.d3dc300d0ea14044186dbc9cc2f0708a.png

I can see the reasoning behind the estofex level 2 with ppn charts looking like that.. Highly likely this will mix down some very damaging gusts as the squalls pass through.. Could really push up the wind strength for short periods.. 

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I was thinking that on some decent convection the 925mbs winds often give a good indication of the gusts at the surface, in the most intense convection you can even go to 850hpa for a decent indication as well...if that is anything to go by we may see a few places get some very large gusts (850hpa winds knocking on the door of 100mph), will be interesting to see if any weather station catches it.

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Winds starting to pick up here in Leeds! House located on a windy spot aswell so it’s gonna be a interesting 24 hours!

Edited by Love Snow
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Very latest NOAA pass shows no major change in formation. That'll come in the hours ahead and will finally nail down where the winds will be worse. Remember nobody, not even senior forecasters, know exactly the likely path once it starts to "swirl". It might 100 miles north or south of forecast. Next 6 hours will be crucial. 

c12.jpg

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35 minutes ago, matty40s said:

From the satellite views and models, Ciara still isnt anywhere near, this is the first system and will be until very early morning. The earlier squall lines and awful weather at Murrayfield are not Ciara.

Look at Burntfishytrousers NASA shots, it has hardly started to fold in yet, the jet stream is driving it at silly speeds.

I would suggest that some of the high res models are seeing some kind of sting jet type winds around the South of the UK(and Northern France/Channel Islands), hence the startling wind speeds being projected. The length of time these will be experienced is something we are quite un-used to in this country, and maybe, unable to deal with!!!

 

Funnily enough, son in law has just disagreed with me about what's coming...looking at his phones front screen he said.

"doesn't seem too bad, bit gusty up to 40mph, and a bit of rain, should clear up afternoon". I think he has Siri.

 

Would a sting jet not usually occur closer to the centre of the storm, so further northwest than the south coast?

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Still some decent uncertainty looking through the ECM ensembles, most are broadly in agreement with the MetO warning, but there are some runs that are going a little lower, and a few runs going much higher (one or two chuck 85mph over large swathes of the Midlands/South, including one with 100mph near Brighton!) so whilst this looks like a strong windstorm, still an outside risk of something more exceptional.

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All gone very quiet here in Greater Manchester.  The first mini storm has gone through.  Just waiting for the main event which I guess will start at around 1am Sunday. 

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16 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Highly likely this will mix down some very damaging gusts as the squalls pass through.. Could really push up the wind strength for short periods.. 

The predicted winds are 70mph average, pushing up from that is SERIOUS

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12 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Would a sting jet not usually occur closer to the centre of the storm, so further northwest than the south coast?

We are entering a new phase of weather forecasting where "usually", doesnt always fit any more

Looking at the jet path, and the likely path of Ciara, the cold front coupled to the dropping pressure, anything is likely, which some of the forecasts seem to hint at.

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4 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:
socialmedialogo.png
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

image.thumb.png.3e42831752d3f0ab5206f53c30db651c.png

 

 

You don't see that often in February!

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In a static caravan by the sea in Porthmadog, Wales... gotta say it’s pretty wild out there now. Caravan is shaking a fair bit, feels like I’m on a boat lol

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14 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It’s real! It’s okay they’re staying in an eco-lodge - it’s some ppl volunteering and I was worried they might not realise the severity of the weather ? 

Sorry I wasn’t taking the p . Good to hear all ok !

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