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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Only a model prediction. And quite likely to be equally wrong as the GFS/GEFS in recent discussion.

Both the OP and the Control seem keen to displace the PV either over the Pole or to Siberia. This seems related to HP building in the central or western Atlantic.

To be honest, the GFS went off on one yesterday in far FI but that happens with the modelling so far ahead. Until it comes to within the modelling range of ECM and GEM we can quite rightly be sceptical.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Stop chasing any beasterly this year, though a reasonable amount of Spring chill will be around.  Now this is a little thing to crop up.  1987?

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hope that is an anomaly though I have a peak energy period around then...but that’s intense with thermal gradient in place 

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BFTP 

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Well it seems people will not isolate voluntarily so perhaps we need this to verify, this would be a shock to the system after this winter and might stop people from leaving their house.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Well it seems people will not isolate voluntarily so perhaps we need this to verify, this would be a shock to the system after this winter and might stop people from leaving their house.

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If only it wasn't 15 days away...

Wishful thinking really. With things as they are, there is next to no chance of any prolonged cold. Unfortunately it also seems there is little chance of any prolonged settled weather.

There is the possibility of a few milder days here and there though during the southwesterly interludes and the GFS shows this for early next week on this evening's run.

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2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Every year, without fail, i lambaste the GFS and have to remind folks that the only reason we look at it, is because it provides a large range of charts for free.

If the ECMWF and UKMet (which we we do pay for) allowed us access to even a tenth of what the GFS provides, we probably wouldn't even look at the GFS at all.

Sorry but thats nonsense..

Only the GFS picked up 7 days in advance the Polar Maritime blast in early February that produced snow for us in the north midlands.
The GFS (on wetterzentrale at least) gives us far more information then the ECM or UKMO.
To write off one of the worlds leading predictive suites, usually because its not showing what you want, is bonkers!

The way to get a realistic view on whats most likely to emerge imho, is to view both the ECM and GFS and compare them to the NOAA Anomaly charts which iron out the more varied vagaries the ops put out. If you use that method, you wont be suckered in by placing misplaced faith in the outliers . I do that on my site to great effect.

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1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

hope that is an anomaly though I have a peak energy period around then...but that’s intense with thermal gradient in place 

image.thumb.png.fe7541fba5d778a7950941c729d2d2fb.png

BFTP 

 

Can you clarify what you mean by “I have a peak energy period” ???‍♂️

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1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Can you clarify what you mean by “I have a peak energy period” ???‍♂️

Maybe he intends to imbibe a Red Bull at that  time?  (Other peak energy drinks are available).

ECM tonight not good in the reliable, with this at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.d29e9ba9b06c93b1aa9be653ffdbbcc6.jpg

I can't see anything much changing for the foreseeable, sorry!

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Aside from the odd transient Northerly (mostly towards the end of runs, specifically the 12Z ECMWF), the Polar Vortex is like one big mean bumble bee - it really needs to buzz off! ?

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11 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Aside from the odd transient Northerly (mostly towards the end of runs, specifically the 12Z ECMWF), the Polar Vortex is like one big mean bumble bee - it really needs to buzz off! ?

Sure is: Vortex running at or above all time recorded maxes for the next couple of weeks still, with 100% ensemble agreement.

image.thumb.png.33191d6b25fc14846a3632f8fb43d861.pngimage.thumb.png.8a5d552307518261051b6bf48d9a7bfb.png

AO forecast to head back up to +4 SD again.

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Realistically there isn't anything cold on the table. 850s around -3/-4c in mid to late March aren't going to do much. Staying more unsettled than settled, though nothing as bad as recently. Sadly Wales, NW England and NW Scotland could see a lot more rain in the next 10 days....damn those hills and mountains. Drier in the East.

image.thumb.png.24f0a798993d14b971d56027637bed71.pngimage.thumb.png.e51a580c46b2bae64f3e3e1d7bcf4727.png  

 

Edited by mb018538
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Nice post Mr Frost-thank you.

Copying this from the Strat thread as it seems appropriate for in here, the main post is by knocker

 

Edited by johnholmes
change Mice to Nice!
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Anyone hoping for some settled weather?

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020030400_240.image.thumb.png.1f674c90eadfbf8ca90dd63d06eb8749.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020030400_360.

Not looking likely for the next couple of weeks, though the deep troughing parked to our W/NW should ease around mid-March. 

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4 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Yes..and worth dropping these for date match compare!... Something  worth an eye on....

MT8_London_ens (12).png

Looks guaranteed! ?

gfsnh-0-282.png

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G'day folks...there's potential in them thar GFS charts??

At T+303, things could get interesting:h500slp.png

And (I think!) the dog-end has some similarities to last-year's spring/early summer?:unsure2:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I might be being bamboozled by just having spent the whole day in a sun-drenched polytunnel, at 20C!:oldlaugh:

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No let up in the atlantic unsettled spell.. models continue to show the atlantic trough anchoring itself down on the UK, with heights languishing far to our SW trying to nose NE but quickly getting cast aside by the ominpresent troublesome feature to the NW that just doesn't want to leave us. Could take a fair while yet to break out of the current pattern, and every chance might squeeze in a northerly interlude at some point. Roll on April or May?

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The 18z GFS is decent again in FI, for the North but even opportunities further south, but the real problem is we just cannot get one down to T0.

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Edited by feb1991blizzard
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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lovely set of 18z GEFS.

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Brutal control run, winter starts in mid March!?

 

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A chance for a bit of a quieter day in general on Friday, and especially into early Saturday, as the charts throw up a small ridge in the Atlantic and track it East through Southern UK:

08096072-DE4A-490C-AE11-494BFD6EE862.thumb.png.d8fb213168db3124b0c108ce34bab193.png54637EBF-5FE9-4307-B381-617B2E38CA2D.thumb.png.27df36b9dfb122a5636701fc8310e3f8.png13910861-B694-4DDB-B4A1-3C7FB72905A0.thumb.png.d722e749a313f2a868a90992f96ecf72.png94070931-F5FF-472E-96E9-CB302599AEF9.thumb.png.220ee6e16e6743d3768c32e79051621e.png0EEC8F7D-960E-4413-A4F6-A6DFE28B6570.thumb.png.735769f293001d7168d2d902accbcfdd.png624DAD4F-8C65-4C28-A053-ABA99AB3020B.thumb.png.08cb8e53b1744ae09411903d90c44ff8.png

Could be few odd showers though, mostly in Western UK areas, on Friday. And it’ll be chilly, too, particularly over Northern parts. Plus, the GFS 18Z does show an area of rain spilling East into Ireland come Saturday as Low Pressure in the Atlantic bushes closer to the UK. But a little window for something a little more settled at least. Particularly further South and East you are. 

Like what a lot of the other operational models are shaping out, the GFS 18Z shows the Polar Vortex gaining power to the North of the UK and High Pressure to the South. Quite a strong, mobile, Atlantic, Westerly pattern putting its big foot down over the UK. So probably becoming zonal for a time next week with the worst of any rain and showers over Western and Northern UK. Some likely wintry over high ground in the North at times as some cooler Polar from the West tries to mix in at times. 

EC815ABD-FD15-4E57-AA54-780B347F2198.thumb.png.11437ba748c730cc836e415d72224264.png514B1ECE-2C87-45F4-BBB7-B7DBE3724FCD.thumb.png.91cc916a9dd90156572c782c67e5be52.pngCE189B3F-491F-4526-B306-A8497AA0B0A7.thumb.png.f22bd34b4e2cef1a0d1e3c25da1258eb.png941204ED-3CE8-4C1C-89A7-6314AE122A2A.thumb.png.1c7b4ed617d053dc86a45e3d4643ac7f.png941204ED-3CE8-4C1C-89A7-6314AE122A2A.thumb.png.1c7b4ed617d053dc86a45e3d4643ac7f.png
 

GFS showing this to be particularly the case on Thursday next week, as the flow becomes more from the North-West. Cold enough 850 hPa temperatures accompanying the flow, so showers could be wintry in places. 

 CC7892B1-B4E5-420E-A9BC-5D11625C85DC.thumb.png.210053472c6ec302b04000e240eb4119.png5B0DFB27-9656-4A69-82B0-D6071A729B4B.thumb.png.3088629a1fbc4ab2a6351380f5c1b6cf.png
 

Been incredible really the frequency of these chilly Polar Maritime flows in the last few weeks. And although a strong Vortex in March isn’t terribly unusual, the charts showing a the blue-y purple beast above are the sort of outcomes you’d more likely to see in December and/or January (and possibly early February).  

Treading deeper into the footsteps of the 18Z GFS, it then shows some amplification developing to the West of the UK in the West to mid-Atlantic and the main area of low heights becoming pushed away a bit more to the North/North-East of the UK. Some colder weather being pulled down from the North-West and North. -10*C 850 hPa temperatures moving across Scotland on Tuesday 17th March (chart at bottom).

B12889C6-022B-423C-A7C4-651461F5E6E9.thumb.png.fc7649c799d9c217d284379e19975f44.png54C88EA0-57D8-4E0F-85AE-87CE8F642E60.thumb.png.ebba76e524680c330e2a9a6f2e3c9cf5.pngAAC56E9C-86A3-49BF-BBC5-2A0F3495A7CE.thumb.png.60fcba06879fa674790bfdc5eac7d759.png49193558-2522-42BC-8D53-C1283F630B72.thumb.png.cb588964d236680a016f088d7cc8e0a9.pngBF8D8EE0-637D-44D9-8E5C-72C69E1B9E70.thumb.png.b2d11924887a34fbe7d3491b95af2295.pngC426FE49-0CDC-4A18-A8EC-25FE7F5C607E.thumb.png.304d7bfa87ba77243da4f7cc8dbe899f.png3BBD1EF9-0819-4666-9DFA-E858954FC8F7.thumb.png.39854a1609254a2bc253622cf2211112.png94DD5E54-C480-4357-A0A2-684DCFAAD3D0.thumb.png.8a5a9454683852c77fef3c854ae3a4ea.png

Some disturbances in the cold North-Westerly flow, which would burst those pillows in the sky! And unleash some white stuff! ❄️

Some further episodes of chilly, wintry, and even stormy weather, on the GFS 18Z after that:

660104D5-3AF2-42AB-A756-69F90867A3E2.thumb.png.7dbdd3fb7e6af589e7aeb3ce789f68a0.png974DA4EB-04FE-46AE-AAC1-8377811B4878.thumb.png.8184fbbbbc39f28b0bde0653b3e292d8.png927DD64D-F2D2-462E-B370-6CF5A72F4AA1.thumb.png.a233df319f1fb6c1998b2dce35ac677f.pngF2687A2A-18ED-42AF-8E38-CF62C8AB21FD.thumb.png.1f5f2998a1526e3af8cc2e3fec5bc50f.png122480AC-1897-47DF-8FC5-899798936E49.thumb.png.d691c95cee0afba099c57b573c25f6e9.pngFAD206EE-3CD6-47B9-A69E-1F520754E56E.thumb.png.23e7f821a4aba19761f9ee5e9e8f5a45.png
 

But... something changes right at the end...

The GFS ends with a High!

391A6924-06C1-4082-A624-BDDDF0E94DB4.thumb.png.8f2189069d175319f63b01c3c958424d.png

So have no fear, the GFS hasn’t forgotten those of you that are after a drier spell. ?
 

(Edit: I acknowledge that some of the above has already been covered by others ?)

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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7 minutes ago, snowray said:

Brutal control run, winter starts in mid March!?

 

Yes,  powerhouse NE flow there, deep convection breaking out almost anywhere that late in season with a chart like that but places like N Yorks, Sunderland and Newcastle would get absolutely marmalised.

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