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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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10 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Not sure why there is so more interest in a possible easterly?  It isn't to be a frigid one like that of two years ago and it will be coming across a virtually snowless Europe anyway. So will it be a cold easterly at the surface?

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And do we want Atlantic systems disrupting and become slowing over the UK dumping more rain over us because of a Scandi block anyway?!

Because the building blocks might then allow for retrogression and topple again and so a proper cold spell might end up occuring.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Because the building blocks might then allow for retrogression and topple again and so a proper cold spell might end up occuring.

Isn't it like hoping a Lego wall will stop a bulldozer given the state of the stratosphere at the moment? 

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1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Isn't it like hoping a Lego wall will stop a bulldozer given the state of the stratosphere at the moment? 

Exactly but it is spring, never known a spring without blocking so it has to happen sometime (strat and trop)

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No real surprise to see the GFS yet again back  away from a cold and snowy outcome that was only ever in Low Res and FI anyway. Such has been the dire nature of this non winter that we end up holding out hope for something showing at ten days plus when everyone knows that anything beyond 7 days model wise is pretty much conjecture and speculation.

What we have learnt this winter is that the only background signal that matters in the end is the strength and durability of the polar vortex all others are secondary. If it's weak and unstable then other signals may have some influence but if it's strong and stable then getting any significant spell of cold and snow is very difficult. 

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Winter has had it's time and been a huge let down. We've had more optimistic charts in FI during the winter months which haven't materialised. It's straw clutching at it's finest this morning, with barely a sniff of wintry potential on offer. Blocking is mentioned but it is no guarantee for cold and snow, and the charts don't look encouraging on that front either.

It's spring now anyway and I sincerely hope we can start dragging in higher pressure from the south and a more prolonged spell of dry weather which would be welcomed by many. 

 

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The GFS could suffer a real embarrassment if it backtracks to the ECM.

Bear in mind last nights 18 hrs run had 19 out of 20 GEFS members supporting the op at day 4 aswell as the control run.

The ECM has never been interested in the GFS solution , the UKMO briefly showed some lukewarm support .

Todays GFS is flatter than last night with the ridge so will it go the whole hog later ! Or will it stay the course !

In the grand scheme of things the differences only delay the arrival of more mild weather for a few days but still it’s not a good look if basically your whole ensemble suite are all wrong at day 4 .

The judges will be reaching their verdict after the 06 hrs run!

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It's so nice to see GEFS still bringing a half decent weekend with a ridge on Saturday but more especially from Mon - Thu next week giving us in South Wales (and elsewhere in southern UK) some much needed drier weather, thereafter a hint of low pressure returning but obviously that's a long way off yet. 

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No 2 years are the same but those looking for some spring warmth should note the experience of 2008, when a strong PV dominated winter extended well into Spring. March 2008 was very unsettled and increasingly cold with widespread snow over Easter. Further cold unsettled weather in early April brought further wintry showers and night frosts. It was the 24th April before the weather finally improved and I had to wait until the 25th April before 15c was reached for the first time in that year.

Looking at the models the PV shows no sign of relenting and I suspect the current autumnal weather will last several more weeks yet.

Appalling.

Andy

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2 hours ago, E17boy said:

Goodmorning peeps ?

A sunny start to the day here in Walthamstow, before the showers arrive later.

i want to make it short this one, but us coldies are still clinging on for a final hurrah from winter. Sadly the reality is with temperatures forcast to climb up to 9 degrees in Moscow and 7 in Oslo what chance have we got with an Easterly if it was to come. The reality is staring at our faces deep down we know sadly there is not much left our search for a winter wonderland I think has in reality come to an end. 

Sorry but I am trying to be honest as I can, unless something extremely dramatic happens now.

wishing you a lovely Tuesday 

regards ????

 

By this time of year we might be best looking to North rather than East for anything cold and wintry, polar air does tend to want to spread out once we get to Spring, lets just hope it spreads in this direction. 

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Still plenty of interest from the 6z ensembles.. Problem is most of them are in fi as per usual, I still feel we are in with a shout of some colder episodes during the next month, how cold, and will it snow is the big question.. 

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bbc going for some snow with this low wednesday/thursday,which GFS has brought back south again.

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Edited by Snowyowl9
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5 hours ago, mhielte said:

We've had more optimistic charts in FI during the winter months which haven't materialised.

 

Actually, one of the most notable things about last winter, was the lack of juicy charts. It seemed like an endless horror show of westerly driven dross. In previous winters, we had charts to drool over in FI regularly, and of course, they didn't come to fruition, but this winter was markedly different and the models performed quite well.

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12 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Actually, one of the most notable things about last winter, was the lack of juicy charts. It seemed like an endless horror show of westerly driven dross. In previous winters, we had charts to drool over in FI regularly, and of course, they didn't come to fruition, but this winter was markedly different and the models performed quite well.

Thats very true. But it remained an equally frustrating winter as I recall because it was showing juicy charts that never made it into the reliable. Here it's been days on end with nothing in la la land until recently now that we are in meteorological spring! 

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Given the latest ICON is even flatter than its earlier run it would be a surprise of the GFS didn’t continue its backtrack on its 12hrs run .

 

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24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Given the latest ICON is even flatter than its earlier run it would be a surprise of the GFS didn’t continue its backtrack on its 12hrs run .

 

I'm hoping the GFS doesn't back down. It would be a very shameful backtrack. If it does it can go Stand in a corner with its hands on its head for being an idiot. 

Edited by Snowfish2
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25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Given the latest ICON is even flatter than its earlier run it would be a surprise of the GFS didn’t continue its backtrack on its 12hrs run .

 

Im waiting for your update saying we have got the full house now!!!shameful from the gfs thats all i can say!!

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9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Im waiting for your update saying we have got the full house now!!!shameful from the gfs thats all i can say!!

The writing was on the wall since last night . When neither the UKMO or ECM made a move towards it .

Even more embarrassing the GEFS were basically all wrong at day 4 . 

When the GFS messes up it does it with style ! Thankfully the stakes weren’t that high as the PV is going to pulverize everything in its wake anyway and it was only really a small delay to that we were talking about. 

Edited by nick sussex
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Next winter I will post the results of the October Fog Index (that I made up:oops:) in here, instead of the Lounge. It will save you months of chasing cold that will never actually materialise. But the result posted on the 1st November was, mild winter with few snow chances, not very scientific and based on weather folklore, I know, but it has got the general theme of the last two winters spot on. It's not that accurate will actual snow fall events, but it is good at predicting the general winter theme. I'm sure Netweather took it into account too when they also predicted a mild winter in their long range winter forecast;):oldwink:

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27 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

I'm hoping the GFS doesn't back down. It would be a very shameful backtrack. If it does it can go Stand in a corner with its hands on its head for being an idiot. 

Every year, without fail, i lambaste the GFS and have to remind folks that the only reason we look at it, is because it provides a large range of charts for free.

If the ECMWF and UKMet (which we we do pay for) allowed us access to even a tenth of what the GFS provides, we probably wouldn't even look at the GFS at all.

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46 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The writing was on the wall since last night . When neither the UKMO or ECM made a move towards it .

Even more embarrassing the GEFS were basically all wrong at day 4 . 

When the GFS messes up it does it with style ! Thankfully the stakes weren’t that high as the PV is going to pulverize everything in its wake anyway and it was only really a small delay to that we were talking about. 

The writing has been on the wall since mid December, I think!   Any decent amplification since then that has appeared on the models has failed to verify, and this will in my opinion continue to be the case while the strat vortex rages above...no sign at all of it weakening yet, as per zonal winds chart...

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Edited by Mike Poole
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5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

PV may finally relent mid month

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Only a model prediction. And quite likely to be equally wrong as the GFS/GEFS in recent discussion.

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