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phil nw.

Model output discussion 02/02/20

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The GFS now has the shortwave running east .

Quite a climb down considering this is within T72 hrs .

 

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS now has the shortwave running east .

Quite a climb down considering this is within T72 hrs .

 

I did mention it earlier i think ecm and gfs will climb down and go towards the ukmo this evening!!i dont know what it is but ukmo has had this knack of outperforming both those models recently especially earlier on!!

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Wednesdays little low could produce some interest, once again marginal stuff though.

 

gfs-0-78.png

gfs-1-84.png

78-574UK.gif

81-574UK.gif

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Now this would be cold enough? What's more...where's Spring gone!?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Is the GFS doing a U-turn?:shok:

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Friday looking very interesting on the 12z!!snowfall across much of the uk maybe with a trough disrupting over the uk!!

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12 minutes ago, shaky said:

Friday looking very interesting on the 12z!!snowfall across much of the uk maybe with a trough disrupting over the uk!!

Indeed. The snow is mainly for northern places though.

snow.thumb.png.df115210919ae14553c77fc9820c2091.pngsnow0.thumb.png.9e5c3e640baea95381397f4f85dfaba1.pngsnow1.thumb.png.db0128cdb7d01ba155bec403ae825d88.pngsnow2.thumb.png.cf1a2974e22dd0dd0fc0fd14fd9c0461.png

The GEM 12z is also showing snow in the band of rain too.

snow3.thumb.png.b397576ef17b6a86196c3b17da627b1b.pngsnow4.thumb.png.8bece6bcdd111d4fd65c5c5c4af1509d.pngsnow5.thumb.png.12f4ce0aaf918cd0fce3a666ea39e544.pngsnow6.thumb.png.9e760daf8c2286551ffe6c7c6cd6019d.png

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14 minutes ago, shaky said:

Friday looking very interesting on the 12z!!snowfall across much of the uk maybe with a trough disrupting over the uk!!

Does that align with the comment from General Cluster who commented "Some marginal potential on Friday"....

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30 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Now this would be cold enough? What's more...where's Spring gone!?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Is the GFS doing a U-turn?:shok:

Looks like it. Another big fail and no sign of drier weather at all now.

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30 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Now this would be cold enough? What's more...where's Spring gone!?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Is the GFS doing a U-turn?:shok:

U-turn it is then...Should've paid more attention to JH & Mushy!:oldsorry:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted (edited)

So now the GFS isn't in the mood for spring, and is now hinting for a more unsettled picture in mid March. The isobars are quite tight together, meaning that strong winds and heavy rain will be associated with it. Did I see this coming? Yes.

I like stormy weather (more convective style) but I am starting to get a bit annoyed now. It is just typical for something like that to happen.

I will probably get replies saying that it is still over 2 weeks away and that it will change (even I have said that multiple times before) but it just looks like it won't happen. The GFS is mostly always verifying very unsettled weather from day 14 onwards.

Sorry for the moaning, maybe not the right thread to moan in but it's just starting to become a pattern now. I need my warm and settled weather now!

Edited by Zak M
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I know there has been talk in here of a settled high pressure period upcoming in here, which I have neither bought into or not bought into!  But it is on flimsy footing now with both the GFS and GEM by T240 looking very unsettled:

image.thumb.jpg.675cbf62f88154baa2782af14ce34ebf.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.abf16e66fb13ff4ad34110ddc35911c0.jpg

And you kind of wonder, while the strat vortex still spins at record levels, if we should be sceptical of any prolonged settled spell that shows up in the models for a while...

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14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

U-turn it is then...Should've paid more attention to JH & Mushy!:oldsorry:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

A very likely scenario, I was always slightly worried that HP would end up further west in the Atlantic and here we have it. Just goes to show how quickly a mild outlook in March can suddenly turn into a cold one.

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

all JFF of course but this just highlight's that the models can change just like the wind lol

Exactly. One minute you're excited over something, and then the models just take it away from you.

Lets hope that the unsettled weather that most models are showing on day 14 onwards will also change as fast as the wind.

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And ECM follows suit with an absolutely dreadful outlook at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.a896332fa1efc53c15f27c91652432e8.jpg

My comment earlier about the strat vortex, it is forecast to go out of this world (into the mesosphere sic!) on the fairly near term GFS:

image.thumb.jpg.c3f8d14e70960f3c6792f9e1367411fd.jpg

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

So now the GFS isn't in the mood for spring, and is now hinting for a more unsettled picture in mid March. The isobars are quite tight together, meaning that strong winds and heavy rain will be associated with it. Did I see this coming? Yes.

I like stormy weather (more convective style) but I am starting to get a bit annoyed now. It is just typical for something like that to happen.

I will probably get replies saying that it is still over 2 weeks away and that it will change (even I have said that multiple times before) but it just looks like it won't happen. The GFS is mostly always verifying very unsettled weather from day 14 onwards.

Sorry for the moaning, maybe not the right thread to moan in but it's just starting to become a pattern now. I need my warm and settled weather now!

Zack young man, try not to get to disappointed by current trends and outlooks, it's only the 1st of March, and it's just as likely to bring cold and snow, as it is warm and sunny.... Plenty of time for the latter just yet. ? Oh and regarding the former, check out this perturbation!!! Ooooccchhhhhh.... Come to moma....

gens-1-1-360.png

gens-1-0-360.png

gens-1-0-372.png

3843583F-AFF3-4E24-8600-46B08F7A510C.thumb.gif.874639288d74cc852342ae838631a243.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Well yesterday’s sniff of HP is gone today. Looks like March will, at least to start, carry on with the same vile output that we’ve endured for the last 3 months. It’s the worst of all worlds - bad for coldies as it won’t be cold enough for snow, and even worse for those looking for spring warmth. Just hoping that the jet begins to meander north as the month progresses,

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Zack young man, try not to get to disappointed by current trends and outlooks, it's only the 1st of March, and it's just as likely to bring cold and snow, as it is warm and sunny.... Plenty of time for the latter just yet. ? Oh and regarding the former, check out this perturbation!!! Ooooccchhhhhh.... Come to moma....

gens-1-1-360.png

gens-1-0-360.png

gens-1-0-372.png

3843583F-AFF3-4E24-8600-46B08F7A510C.thumb.gif.874639288d74cc852342ae838631a243.gif

Yes, nice to look at, Matt, but I can't see any way this could happen from here...it's dreadful, at this time of year we could be seeing unseasonal snowy spells, or surprise warm spells.....but no, the form horse ( why does it have to be a horse??,) the form cat is likely to be inside while the rain continues to fall! 

image.thumb.jpg.c4efd25b441e1e9c80903c990b2e8fe0.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, nice to look at, Matt, but I can't see any way this could happen from here...it's dreadful, at this time of year we could be seeing unseasonal snowy spells, or surprise warm spells.....but no, the form horse ( why does it have to be a horse??,) the form cat is likely to be inside while the rain continues to fall! 

image.thumb.jpg.c4efd25b441e1e9c80903c990b2e8fe0.jpg

I think all the time the PV continues to spin unrelenting, we are going to see any type of high pressure struggle to gain foothold, at least perhaps until later in the spring when the Azores high may become more dominant?

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Zak M said:

Indeed. The snow is mainly for northern places though.

snow.thumb.png.df115210919ae14553c77fc9820c2091.pngsnow0.thumb.png.9e5c3e640baea95381397f4f85dfaba1.pngsnow1.thumb.png.db0128cdb7d01ba155bec403ae825d88.pngsnow2.thumb.png.cf1a2974e22dd0dd0fc0fd14fd9c0461.png

The GEM 12z is also showing snow in the band of rain too.

snow3.thumb.png.b397576ef17b6a86196c3b17da627b1b.pngsnow4.thumb.png.8bece6bcdd111d4fd65c5c5c4af1509d.pngsnow5.thumb.png.12f4ce0aaf918cd0fce3a666ea39e544.pngsnow6.thumb.png.9e760daf8c2286551ffe6c7c6cd6019d.png

To be fair tho, those charts have to be the chocolate fireguard charts of the winter, In fact they must have run out of white pixels, those charts are very moderate compared to the whiteout charts posted in previous days, which delivered very little! Think its time to thow the towel in now and look foreward to some warmth.

Edited by KTtom
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I know there has been talk in here of a settled high pressure period upcoming in here, which I have neither bought into or not bought into!  But it is on flimsy footing now with both the GFS and GEM by T240 looking very unsettled:

image.thumb.jpg.675cbf62f88154baa2782af14ce34ebf.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.abf16e66fb13ff4ad34110ddc35911c0.jpg

And you kind of wonder, while the strat vortex still spins at record levels, if we should be sceptical of any prolonged settled spell that shows up in the models for a while...

The state of that vortex! Looks more akin to December than March.

I think the worry has to be that we get a major final late warming that promotes HLB and even more wet weather into late spring/summer.

Edited by CreweCold
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Wednesday looks to be showing something:

wed.png

wed0.png

wed1.png

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The state of that vortex! Looks more akin to December than March.

I think the worry has to be that we get a major final late warming that promotes HLB and even more wet weather into late spring/summer.

Well, that is certainly a possibility with a very unusual PV at the moment.  I'm not sure when we last had a similar PV as strong at this time of year and also, were there any consequences for late spring/summer?  Also, perhaps a strengthening Azores high could save it?

Edited by Don
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