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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Scandy high / southerly tracking jet evident on the 00zs ...

Quelle suprise now winter is over.

Watch those wretched blues and purples vanish to our NW just in time for spring.

 

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144z shows how clueless ECM is compared with UKMO Gfs and Icon, haScreenshot_20200228_072714_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.31ece6efcb0cadb6739f9e8bcffbf700.jpg

It has no low developed to our south

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Screenshot_20200228_073301_com.android.gallery3d.jpg

Screenshot_20200228_073338_com.android.gallery3d.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

You missed out this part

....more and more rain....

 

May I refer the honorable member for Irlam to the other mod thread where wind and rain are generally covered in more detail rather than an obsession with flakes. Talking of which......................................................:hi:

Edited by knocker
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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

May I refer the honorable member for Irlam to the other mod thread where wind and rain are generally covered in more detail rather than an obsession with flakes. Talking of which......................................................:hi:

It has got to that stage I rather have nothing falling out of the sky.

Hopefully GFS has picked up at least a drier interlude during second week of March

GFSAVGEU00_282_1.png

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10 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Day 10 ECM 0z operational..nae bad!?

A15A0A6D-106F-4348-A458-E956B122B828.thumb.png.73c19fc803a6805dab237a41f0581c34.pngC24874AB-FD0F-4752-BBD2-40FCA5609D1B.thumb.png.00bfe4700ddc5a30d654eea1e34f94f3.png

 

9th March on that chart....we're starting to get towards that time where the cold has to be quite intense to get any wintriness. Looking fairly chilly next week though.

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Crikey, today's GFS 00Z operational run has some 'amazing' charts in it! Notwithstanding yesterday's potential Blast From The North, the building heat, down southeast also looks rather impressive, for the time of year!

All far too 'up in the air' for me to attempt a silly forecast, but we could be in for a spring of extreme temperature-swings?

T+240: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Gfs 06z still plenty of opportunities for snow over the next 10 days!!ecm might join the party later!you can see it has joined the ukmo and gfs earlier in the run up to 120 hours but then implodes later on!!think it might be playing catch up!!

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22 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Just like last Wednesday, next week might also get 'interesting'...Slush Wednesday??

 

Unfortunately - it gets very boring after that though - just what we don't want.

image.thumb.png.4f43580397a038ec73f7a3bc30ab1ec6.png

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Finally a light at the end of the tunnel?

12 days away, but....could we see high pressure building in? By no means certain, as the Atlantic still looks active at this point:

image.thumb.png.bd0835d23a366831ddc59ed706f049af.png

Looking much less potent by day 15, and with plenty of oranges and reds around the UK, you'd hope the wind and rain will ease as we head towards Mid-March:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020022800_360.

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Both 00z EPS and GEFS H500 mean indicating building heights from the SW across northern Europe days 10-15, as troughing over northern Europe weakens and breaks down day 10 onwards. Whether this a growing trend or a false lead, like some recent drying-out hopes from models at range dashed, remains to be seen. We all could do with a respite from theses prolonged unsettled conditions. 

00z EPS days 10-15

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4144000.thumb.png.6acc3397574f6f84e9e3f58dc449029e.png

00z GEFS dsys 10-15

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4144000.thumb.png.6acc3397574f6f84e9e3f58dc449029e.png

And if ridging does build NE, there is the question of where high pressure will build at the surface, quite a chunk of EPS members have low pressure over southern Europe (result of the breakdown of the N European trough) and high pressure building over northern Europe, while some members cluster around ridging over western Europe or troughing persisting over northern Europe.

06z GFS further adding fuel to the idea of a drier high pressure dominated spell developing from next weekend.

GFSOPEU06_252_1.thumb.png.dfa07ee3797f660d3474e9d87f47b181.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4144000.png

Edited by Nick F
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Consistency from the GFS up to D10. D8 looks like HP building in:

anim_icu4.gif

So maybe 3-5 days of settled weather from next weekend, which will be a nice change. Low heights over Iberia the trigger. Of course, the ECM going the slower route towards higher pressure.

GFS D11: gfseu-15-264.thumb.png.9eb497b176507dbd04e78f2547a9a5e0.png

Could see some milder temps as well as settled.

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15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unfortunately - it gets very boring after that though - just what we don't want.

image.thumb.png.4f43580397a038ec73f7a3bc30ab1ec6.png

Boring? It's fantastic! But I would say that, wouldn't I?: I work on a farm!?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

2012: Rrea00220120310.gif?

Edited by General Cluster
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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unfortunately - it gets very boring after that though - just what we don't want.

image.thumb.png.4f43580397a038ec73f7a3bc30ab1ec6.png

I'm sure those affected by flooding will welcome 'boring' high pressure!

I think the chances for lowland snow south of Scotland look like receding through next week anyway. Even Wednesday's low looks like a mostly rain event on northern flank for now. 

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The synoptics on the face of it look interesting but there’s not enough cold on tap at present to deliver much .

The low next week might look good but looks like a rainmaker at present .

You’d need a better injection of cold before it arrives . As the system looks quite shallow evaporative cooling might help but still at present it looks like mostly rain .

Let’s see if the GEFS have some colder solutions .

 

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Aye, a possible 5-/7-day spell of warmth and sunshine...let the drying-out process begin?:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, from an historic perspective, coldies needn't despair...1978:

April 4th: Rrea00219780404.gif 11th: Rrea00219780411.gif

Edit: Just to clarify: I wasn't attempting a 'silly forecast', I was merely attempting to show that, just because, on a particular day, an anticyclone sits slap, bang over the UK, it doesn't necessarily follow that it'll still be there...one week later.:oldgood:

 

Edited by General Cluster
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30 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Aye, a possible 5-/7-day spell of warmth and sunshine...let the drying-out process begin?:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, from an historic perspective, coldies needn't despair...1978:

April 4th: Rrea00219780404.gif 11th: Rrea00219780411.gif

 

But that last frame isn't happening is it. High pressure just sits over us 

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