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phil nw.

Model output discussion 02/02/20

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Well we've seen interesting things develop from these kinds of charts before - any more trough disruption from the mother low and the east might get in.

But it's a sniff rather than a smell.

UW144-21.GIF?27-17

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8 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

I would have thought this would have stirred some interest in here. Euro4 showing wintery precipitation through tomorrow as front approaches from the west.

Saturday is of interest on the Emerald Isle.

9D8A1BB2-E1BB-40A6-A312-2A416D974A81.gif

A42A2F37-D7FD-4F4E-8B50-3C93BEBFF0C7.gif

89D97B6E-D9E6-4464-9946-717681ADD00E.gif

585524AE-2434-4B9E-AFF2-9403998685CF.gif

Woooaahh didnt expect that!!was there a few days ago but i thought got dropped since!!

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Although we see that high over Scandi in the UKMO and ICON outputs  , it’s the ultimate tease because the upstream pattern refuses to play ball.

So we see some very cold uppers to the ne just sitting there waving at us !

Very frustrating but at the moment it looks like close but no cigar . We’d need a large correction west and at day 6 that’s hard to imagine .

 

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is going to be a stonker in a minute.

image.thumb.png.fd194b0bb720676d102cf369d448c07a.png

Here we go,more chance of this happening at this time of the year.

gfsnh-0-354.thumb.png.f2895a98e7b072beb7534756b41f87d4.png

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Although we see that high over Scandi in the UKMO and ICON outputs  , it’s the ultimate tease because the upstream pattern refuses to play ball.

So we see some very cold uppers to the ne just sitting there waving at us !

Very frustrating but at the moment it looks like close but no cigar . We’d need a large correction west and at day 6 that’s hard to imagine .

 

Yes - ship sailed now - i am more looking at the prospects of a Greeny in FI -something like these uppers with a developing wave in the flow will suit me fine.

image.thumb.png.04dc1050fb96a5dc4331b534d1428278.png

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4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

1074mb! The GFS is having a giraffe?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Where is that!

JFF ,this is more like it.

gfsnh-0-378.thumb.png.cea3204161d2bf5c5be5a85b6ccd8b0b.pnggfsnh-1-378.thumb.png.61fabfb1d8d3db5fda2c50a3fbe14d58.png

trend setter?

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - ship sailed now - i am more looking at the prospects of a Greeny in FI -something like these uppers with a developing wave in the flow will suit me fine.

image.thumb.png.04dc1050fb96a5dc4331b534d1428278.png

Iceland would be getting it rough there. I am thinking of going there again soon....

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3 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Iceland would be getting it rough there. I am thinking of going there again soon....

You don't want to go then if that came off - save your iceland for when its crap here - that would be a stonker for Northern Ireland - and particularly for your part, massively exposed to a Northerly plus inshore waters - streamers galore.

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13 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

1076mb! The GFS is having a giraffe?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And if these verify, I'm the King of Spain!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

You have to treat pressure charts over the Greenland region with a huge pinch of salt especially when you have purples over the area.

This is a true Greenland high

 

NOAA_1_2010121712_1.png

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46 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the earlier GEFS 6z mean as we head towards mid March is again looking more settled / benign which I’m sure would be welcomed following all the flooding this winter!!!?

F1C095B8-3DDF-43E3-B7DE-17DE38322517.thumb.png.9bebedb15d82fbae19c3087731849b13.pngFCAADE13-92DD-4EA2-82C7-4C519FBD3A5A.thumb.png.6297477428c08165d457128f661107c3.png

These charts are enough to send the vast majority of coldies on this forum into hibernation till Nov ?

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1 hour ago, Weegaz said:

I would have thought this would have stirred some interest in here. Euro4 showing wintery precipitation through tomorrow as front approaches from the west.

Saturday is of interest on the Emerald Isle.

9D8A1BB2-E1BB-40A6-A312-2A416D974A81.gif

A42A2F37-D7FD-4F4E-8B50-3C93BEBFF0C7.gif

89D97B6E-D9E6-4464-9946-717681ADD00E.gif

585524AE-2434-4B9E-AFF2-9403998685CF.gif

I think the Euro4 must have lost the plot here. Every other high res model has rain apart from highest part of pennines and north York moors etc tomorrow?

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2 hours ago, Weegaz said:

I would have thought this would have stirred some interest in here. Euro4 showing wintery precipitation through tomorrow as front approaches from the west.

Saturday is of interest on the Emerald Isle.

9D8A1BB2-E1BB-40A6-A312-2A416D974A81.gif

A42A2F37-D7FD-4F4E-8B50-3C93BEBFF0C7.gif

89D97B6E-D9E6-4464-9946-717681ADD00E.gif

585524AE-2434-4B9E-AFF2-9403998685CF.gif

Interesting to see all that snow streaming into west Wales especially with the gales or severe gales that's also forecast ???❄️❄️❄️?

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3 hours ago, Weegaz said:

I would have thought this would have stirred some interest in here. Euro4 showing wintery precipitation through tomorrow as front approaches from the west.

Saturday is of interest on the Emerald Isle.

9D8A1BB2-E1BB-40A6-A312-2A416D974A81.gif

A42A2F37-D7FD-4F4E-8B50-3C93BEBFF0C7.gif

89D97B6E-D9E6-4464-9946-717681ADD00E.gif

585524AE-2434-4B9E-AFF2-9403998685CF.gif

Oh gawd, not again! ?

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What a bizarre set of ens from the GFS and ECM 12s. The GFS op going much colder than the mean towards the end of the run, with the ECM op going quite a bit warmer than its mean!! Which one is the weakest link!!! 

graphe3_1000_283_71___.png

graphe0_00_268_89___.png

giphy.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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4 hours ago, Weegaz said:

I would have thought this would have stirred some interest in here. Euro4 showing wintery precipitation through tomorrow as front approaches from the west.

Saturday is of interest on the Emerald Isle.

9D8A1BB2-E1BB-40A6-A312-2A416D974A81.gif

A42A2F37-D7FD-4F4E-8B50-3C93BEBFF0C7.gif

89D97B6E-D9E6-4464-9946-717681ADD00E.gif

585524AE-2434-4B9E-AFF2-9403998685CF.gif

Yeah when you take a look at the 950mb temperature profile:

image.thumb.png.4863f14bc4e26806dca5862d6720f3e5.png

there would probably be quite a significant melt layer, so away from higher ground I suspect it has gone slightly rogue, although similar shown on Meteociel too with Dew Points around 0-2c

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I think si the GFS is driving me round the bend now, it doesn't seem to know what to do next... It will be flagging up some beach weather next... Oh hang on a sec...... ?

But even with this sceanrio, just look at the fidgid uppers to the NW.... bring me some thundersnow... ?

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-1-264.png

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The GFS control run looks interesting !

So close to getting that deep cold pool into the UK.

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