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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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34 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The wedge drama continues .

The GFS develops a wedge of heights to the ne . Every run though changes the evolution of low pressure over the UK .

This wants to split  low pressure over the UK taking one cell nw whilst the second tracks east .

If any wedge gets further sw then a better chance of some snow as the upstream low moves in later and hits the colder air .

Equally if the ECM trend is correct then zip chance of that .

 

I am increasingly becoming interested in what is happening at the end of these runs.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I am increasingly becoming interested in what is happening at the end of these runs.

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Unfortunately Feb these types of charts seem to remain marooned into FI.

Even if something like that lands at this time of the year we need an injection of deep upper  cold into any Scandi high for it to deliver . 

 

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10 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Ya having a laugh right?? .. The mean drops to it's lowest point that I can recall this season... And it's ample...the spreads then begin dictate on the mean.  And the member splits shout....another belt of drop line clustering...in near suites...March or not.....it's gun ho! 500z through suite lounges also are of big note......the fat lady isn't singing...the far bloke belly flopping is!!!!!!..those ens are classic pass down..with a batch of member followers!

 

 

No - not having a laugh, and the backtrack now complete.

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44 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Looking like Snow for the first time this Winter north of M4 corridor,also March Finally turning drier

and the only Month that winter will show its hand.From the floods to ice skating,keep the sledge handy.

Not sure about that, theres nothing dry on this predictve chart much before mid month at least.

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7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-108.png?12

This chart would look better in late December, a small wedge 

Thats some improvement there early on compared to 00z run!!might still be a few snowfalls coming up!!

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The GFS 12Z continues to blow up Low Pressure this weekend over the UK with some feisty winds tearing through the South of the UK.

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Wind gust speeds:

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Scotland, especially the Northern part, avoiding the worst of the winds. The GFS, as usual, likely over-exploding that Low. Maybe one to keep an eye on though. The strong winds combined with sleety showers and longer spells of rain could make it rough. Really is amazing how these events always clash with weekends at the moment. But for flooded areas, a rest from all the wind and rain I imagine would be very welcome.

Those Lows Pressure systems really do need to calm down man! 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Correcting mistakes
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6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFSP12EU12_144_1.pngGFSP13EU12_144_1.pngGFSP02EU12_144_1.pngGFSP03EU12_144_1.pngGFSP08EU12_144_1.png

#Random Ensembles Assemble

Good to see some going for height rises to our NE as per UKMO and ICONScreenshot_20200226_165947_com.android.gallery3d.thumb.jpg.7f7eff2055b712016a9371a53e518a82.jpg

Screenshot_20200226_170022_com.android.gallery3d.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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GFS still going for it... Perhaps Wales into the Midlands fairing best!! Just got back from Shropshire where I was literally in front of the Clee hills... 1800ft above sea level was still snow on the tops.. For the sake of 25 miles, I may take a venture there tomorrow! So plenty of interest tomorrow, then it looks wild again by Saturday, perhaps colder with wintry showers by Sunday!! At last, a little bit of excitement! 

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10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

GFS still going for it... Perhaps Wales into the Midlands fairing best!! Just got back from Shropshire where I was literally in front of the Clee hills... 1800ft above sea level was still snow on the tops.. For the sake of 25 miles, I may take a venture there tomorrow! So plenty of interest tomorrow, then it looks wild again by Saturday, perhaps colder with wintry showers by Sunday!! At last, a little bit of excitement! 

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Not sure what GFS has been eating as come mid day I know Stoke is looking at 4-5c...possibly

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS is going to be about 50-75 Miles to far North with everything!

To be fair though the Met Office Precipitation charts (based on ukV i think) have it quite far North on this mornings 9 Oclock update, next update due at 18.20.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair though the Met Office Precipitation charts (based on ukV i think) have it quite far North on this mornings 9 Oclock update, next update due at 18.20.

Can you post up comparable timestamps for 620 update (ppn track ) either for 07z or 10z

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Can you post up comparable timestamps for 620 update (ppn track ) either for 07z or 10z

You know what Steve - I think i have dropped a clanger - there huge areas of PPN across a swathe of the country and heavy right up to my location!!! -  But that is not to do with the low, that looks like showers that have merged together - i cannot post it as it wont let you copy images on the Met Office site but i have checked the pressure charts and they only go in 12 hour steps but the low is actually quite far South. It has the Centre of it about to hit Cornwall at around midnight but has it deep into Northern France by 12 midday tommorow.

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36 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Snow accumulations for tomorrow:

 

 

 

 

Which model is that?  I'm guessing GEM as they are have a habit of massively overplaying snow accumulations. 

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