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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

At T33 Don, are you having a giraffe?

Some of the 12z models looked more promising for Thursday, though.  Not that I think you're wrong!

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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So out to 36hrs, the pub run has Thursday's low slightly further north and a little deeper than the 12z (18z first):

image.thumb.png.bfd6e00f071c97feb729001d8774f355.pngimage.thumb.png.c1a1d46c064253471e20bfc3452fe15b.png  

As a result, the heavier precip is taken slightly further north

image.thumb.png.31adf92445cf158f7cbf2214c54c8667.png

 

 

Edited by Ice Day
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Pub run sadly agreeing that although this is a genuine channel low, it just isn't cold enough to snow, T30

image.thumb.jpg.e751a0ef583a98ad7d12813b36f273ae.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6cb64ef5e34df23ae879bf7314b96054.jpg

and T36:

image.thumb.jpg.7456612330598965d98bc507372aa146.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.089ce2cb612b7432e4324889dcfb5867.jpg

Fitting end to a horrible winter, don't you think?

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run sadly agreeing that although this is a genuine channel low, it just isn't cold enough to snow, T30

image.thumb.jpg.e751a0ef583a98ad7d12813b36f273ae.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6cb64ef5e34df23ae879bf7314b96054.jpg

and T36:

image.thumb.jpg.7456612330598965d98bc507372aa146.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.089ce2cb612b7432e4324889dcfb5867.jpg

Fitting end to a horrible winter, don't you think?

Yep.  However, I'm going to Peterborough Thursday, so may see some falling snow at least!  S*d all chance south of the M4 now!  If only we had some colder air entranced......

Edited by Don
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7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well the gfs 18z still going for a snowy Thursday. But will it be right ?

C8EC67F2-3EEA-44AB-998D-264912F88732.png

34FE43BF-163C-4CC8-96E5-08F5DFE28DD5.png

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31DAC2CF-9E59-4549-975B-5B0E61929BA3.png

2337D80C-63B6-4681-AC09-408EF8FAE39E.png

Absolutely fantastic for us midlanders!!gfs just aint giving this up!

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7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run sadly agreeing that although this is a genuine channel low, it just isn't cold enough to snow, T30

Fitting end to a horrible winter, don't you think?

Not so good for the south and south east contingent (me included), but I'd say those in the Midlands and North would be more optimistic!  Looks great for them at this point (albeit, with a very low bar!).

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The best thing about the gfs is that the last 4 runs have upgraded the snow potential each time for thursday which makes me.think that the gfs is on to something here!!

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More changes to the low set up over the UK .

The ECM had a large ensemble spread to the north and the GFS also .

The models can’t decide whether to detach the low from low heights se Greenland . This time the GFS does .

Edited by nick sussex
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12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run sadly agreeing that although this is a genuine channel low, it just isn't cold enough to snow, T30

image.thumb.jpg.e751a0ef583a98ad7d12813b36f273ae.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6cb64ef5e34df23ae879bf7314b96054.jpg

and T36:

image.thumb.jpg.7456612330598965d98bc507372aa146.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.089ce2cb612b7432e4324889dcfb5867.jpg

Fitting end to a horrible winter, don't you think?

Not sure what you’re taking about there is still not agreement on track and ECM makes it a much more more shallow feature it doesn’t deepen it, southern extent was Surrey on 12Z ECM.

while it is marginal when is it not, it could deliver for fair swathes of country Midlands looks favoured.

E1E95673-0B76-421C-B394-27A74BA9591F.thumb.gif.76347838f11a7c482202f686d8b9c756.gifD4C2F604-42AF-4E24-B8D2-39E8F86A6CB7.thumb.png.be75898aeba26f5084bcb4fc7ea10a37.png

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Absolutely fantastic for us midlanders!!gfs just aint giving this up!

Steady! You won't be able to build a snow worm out of that!   Is that a thing a snow worm?  I just meant a small thing that doesn't need much snow.  Maybe a snow ladybird?  Of course it's academic if it doesn't snow! Models now saying it won't unfortunately.   

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If there is something that I remember about the GFS and lows scooting through the channel, it corrects them South right down to the last minute.

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Looking at all the variations of the models regarding Thursdays low is that most people will be disappointed and a few will be pleased,it's just how it is,there are so many IMBY posts that keep on returning every winter thinking that the UK nation wide is going to be hit by snow,it won't and never will be,deal with it

^this is not a dig and i am sure you all will understand this post

the few lucky ones i hope you will enjoy it and i say this for everyone

there is still(i know)plenty of time for most of us to see some snow,i have just half hour ago and i enjoyed watching it fall and i am great full

i do wish on everyone's behalf that we see some descent snow from this dreadful winter before it's out

right,goin to check out the 18z.

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Saturday afternoon could see some fun and games for most of the country (look away south easterners!).  West Scotland in the sweet spot.

image.thumb.png.725ad21a6afa5be65eae2aceb730cc09.png

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

If there is something that I remember about the GFS and lows scooting through the channel, it corrects them South right down to the last minute.

Yes - 13th  or 14th Dec 2010 GFS 12z - had a deep low with a blizzard for Northern England on 18th, by 17th it was a channel runner.

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This low pressure looks like it could bring more precipitation than was expected in areas that don’t need it !

this could be winter or it could be wet!

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Hirlam keeps it south   with the southern counties in for some snow

image.thumb.png.256d0be6399d83f42b77c31be0b1c2fc.png

 

Looks further north than the 12z i think!!think midlands shall be the sweet spot regardless now?

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Just now, shaky said:

Looks further north than the 12z i think!!think midlands shall be the sweet spot regardless now?

Love the emoticon ! That’s so funny . I’m staying well out of this , it could get ugly in here ! 

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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Hirlam keeps it south   with the southern counties in for some snow

image.thumb.png.256d0be6399d83f42b77c31be0b1c2fc.png

 

Not those southern counties south of the M4!

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Not those southern counties south of the M4!

Thought  that goes without saying Don.     Woeful Winter

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