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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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Just now, Mike Poole said:

Well TI, I will await the corrective data plots with interest, and hopefully a snowflake or two to boot!!

We clearly agree re the MJO, but almost everything else favouring snow is in my view polishing the proverbial, at the moment anyway...

 

The updated March forecast for the USA issued today by NOAA talks quite a lot about the MJO which was surprising .

And they seem to think it’s heading for the Western Hemisphere, even more surprising given that current forecasts bar the CFS don’t look interested at all in even taking it out of the COD.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The updated March forecast for the USA issued today by NOAA talks quite a lot about the MJO which was surprising .

And they seem to think it’s heading for the Western Hemisphere, even more surprising given that current forecasts bar the CFS don’t look interested at all in even taking it out of the COD.

Even when COD is mentioned...I refuse personally anymore to bother with its plots...I've noticed on microscale it's insignificant....and tbh...even in masscale on a higher percentage. And being a miniscule maritime northern hemisphere island...I've decided to put it out for the bin men!!!! All imo (above)

Edited by tight isobar
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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The updated March forecast for the USA issued today by NOAA talks quite a lot about the MJO which was surprising .

And they seem to think it’s heading for the Western Hemisphere, even more surprising given that current forecasts bar the CFS don’t look interested at all in even taking it out of the COD.

That's interesting, Nick, as you say there seems no signal today, but you can quite see the MJO, final warming in the strat, and just general bad luck, conspiring together to give us some long overdue sleet in late March, early April, can't you?

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

That's interesting, Nick, as you say there seems no signal today, but you can quite see the MJO, final warming in the strat, and just general bud luck, conspiring together to give us some long overdue sleet in late March, early April, can't you?

I think it depends what measure is used to depict the true signal . This has been the subject of much debate amongst the MJO fraternity in the USA. 

On some measures the MJO is already in a lowish amplitude phase 7.  

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Big highlights here in reference...take the ecm12z @144 with 850hpas in toe... The shortwave Scandinavian feature pens and disrupts clean evolution....yet by the 26 Feb it may not exist in sequence at all.. And allow dripping of value....also highlights my mjo scwerming!!!..looking forward to all suites 500 geopotential outs tonight!      Edit. Will add charts shortly having a few issues....

ECH0-144.gif

ECM1-144.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Getting close to a mega Northerly, but not close enough.. Yet

Look at that deep cold to the North of Iceland at 216 hours, imagine the excitement in their forums lol

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Just now, SLEETY said:

Getting close to a mega Northerly, but not close enough.. Yet

Look at that deep cold to the North of Iceland at 216 hours, imagine the excitement in their forums lol

?. The it's not as borderline as all winter with ramifications on the turn it's dripping just correct..and I personally can see a transition to a more North\north east elements...as we gain. Certainly a backloaded out. Just to what degree is for decipher.

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3 hours ago, shaky said:

Another cold and wintry gfs for next week!!finally something to look forward to!!a bit late but better than nothing!

 

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Well TI, I will await the corrective data plots with interest, and hopefully a snowflake or two to boot!!

We clearly agree re the MJO, but almost everything else favouring snow is in my view polishing the proverbial, at the moment anyway...

It is interesting that the GFS is showing some wintry interest how ever I am not really convinced that it would bear any fruit and looking at today’s update from Exeter they only going for wintry precipitation for northern high grounds mainly and lower level at times nothing for us here in certain areas how ever I wait to see what unfolds next week in this poor excuse of a winter I meant southern areas. ?

Edited by Blessed Weather
New post was in quote box. Extracted to avoid confusion.
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11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM has some snow midlands / SE day 9

 

94FF80E6-0506-4F88-B69C-F0F125FF47AA.jpeg

This might sound a bit dumb but is ECM short for ECMWF?

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18 minutes ago, Zak M said:

This might sound a bit dumb but is ECM short for ECMWF?

Kind of...it’s the ECM model which is from the ECMWF.....European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting  

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That’s probably the coldest set of ECM Ens  I’ve seen all winter. Some ens hitting the -8 line even for London . 21C1F211-8C1C-4BA3-8A77-08012BF09BF8.thumb.png.94be507571d419e66715fb4a8d7c6aa3.png

Even colder for the Scots . 08DD41F3-436C-4AE5-9B80-54C629194702.thumb.png.162595c3856a489f1bb1b2ee9feea710.png

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39 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM has some snow midlands / SE day 9

 

94FF80E6-0506-4F88-B69C-F0F125FF47AA.jpeg

Yes please! ?

It'll most likely be gone on the next run ?

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21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Kind of...it’s the ECM model which is from the ECMWF.....European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting  

Ah. I just had a look at the ECMWF - snow happening on day 9 certainly won't surprise me!

ecm.png

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1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

I just can’t get on board this time. So many times I’ve led myself up their garden path, it’s maybe reverse psychology it I’ve never found myself so negative about a winter outlook , I really hope it materialises .

 

You’re right to be very dubious. One thing notable from this winter is any bit of amplification shown at the longer range has failed to materialize.

Its even been a struggle at day 6 to see that survive . In this instance a lot depends on that storm forecast for the eastern USA , where exactly that tracks and whether it develops any secondary features has a large impact on any ridging ahead of it .

 

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Pub run keen on a more amplified NW'ly angle of attack at T144

image.thumb.jpg.e66d34a09ed7531fdcdea70fb7a29033.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.024b3520fe01461eb60e848596f136c3.jpg

There is still this possibility of some wintriness from this with cold air on the march towards UK, but marginal is not the word....OK it is the word, but much emphasised!! 

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Likely to be different on next run, but maybe also a spell of sleet and snow for some over Southern/South-Western UK on the Northern flank of that runner Low going through the Channel and into France?

2ECB226C-A4CD-4DB8-B129-7F494C150E23.thumb.png.a64236a326451f72766dbb8d36e06968.png51D50FC8-858B-4FFA-94D3-6533A9FC3C5A.thumb.png.178d66c5f6661d5b378e209acb160057.png
(for Thursday next week)

Some precipitation type charts for that day:

52267D2D-636A-47E9-AE64-A33C05173236.thumb.png.9db63ebb5222205e6e2fc762e6908044.png2CF97461-A5A0-4BAF-AFAB-160592C44ACD.thumb.png.943406334df0eca2e2073fb728cfd751.pngD75CC9B4-104B-47C9-9391-8631CC86C10B.thumb.png.f31f5af9c0a88d6ec334e60b214283ff.png
 

Not to be taken as certain. For fun, really. 

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GFS 18z ens supporting a colder spell of weather there, I must say that things are looking a little more interesting even of the SE.:oldgood:

 

graphe_ens3.gif

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This is not a dig at anyone as i will not do that on here so don't be offended but this is more of a sensible approach as in terms of ppn charts,there is no point in looking at the ppn charts at that range(29th Feb),that's nine days away,when snow is forecast it is best to stick to now-casting and lamp post watching in the night ha! ha!,looking for trends that far out,yes as in terms of predicted 500's and 850's plus wet bulb figures and dew-points needs to be 0c or colder but you could get away with slightly milder wet bulbs and dew-points if the conditions are favorable such as continental flow or battleground scenario's 

anyway i will leave that subject alone now and focus on next week,this is the best shot to come next week as the PFJ tilts more on the axis veering more on a NW>SE trajectory injecting more of a PM feed,this looks more notable than the recent weeks just gone,here

i do wish that we can all get in on the act of some proper winter weather and next week might deliver,we hope.

there is no hens teeth left by the way

laters.

 

Edited by Mapantz
edited by request
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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

The eps seem more keen on snowfall of some description over the next fortnight than I have seen thus far 

 

I must say if it does materialise then the EPS have been a bit late to the party and the GEFS will have performed better this time.

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Quite a lot of snow could be possible late next week. (Because the GFS thinks so, as it is obviously the most RELIABLE model out there ?)

The GFS 18z shows some cold arctic air arriving from the north on days 8 and 9, as it has so in the last 3-4 runs:

snow3.thumb.png.02af3204c59d1fd146c73788c2e5c5b0.pngsnow4.thumb.png.0a523eab832f33e6f5dc9b595358bcbe.pngsnow5.thumb.png.2162d4aa0c4119bc88efcd1ac381d5ee.pngsnow6.thumb.png.22969807f696f17cda3063d5a155adc5.png

snow7.thumb.png.cd4187d760eb45b4f92d91c10268da15.pngsnow8.thumb.png.30a3418ffc923d272c44c486f6936449.pngsnow9.thumb.png.a5f29eae8089b5b8ad8dab0a7dc93a08.pngsnow10.thumb.png.fce0c443831036199bb22653c594a7a4.png

BUT, the GEM 12z disagrees, showing that the plume of arctic air will only be on day 8:

snow11.thumb.png.73e78a75dc45a15eaeec77bcc04ccead.pngsnow12.thumb.png.afbd84144b2bce28643ab7a04b52b804.pngsnow13.thumb.png.898ca10e8a67d67c421212a92dec35f8.pngsnow14.thumb.png.f34570df0ec2739f80a9a1a953ebe2b8.png

Back to the GFS, the 12z run shows how much snow could be possible:

snow.thumb.png.b9dd532b6b9b0078b7492c68d38c1c6c.pngsnow0.thumb.png.6f4de3d08b29463afe357e21ab8cb1cf.pngsnow1.thumb.png.077cb5e1602a04ecc31f51d1b1b93f95.pngsnow2.thumb.png.36edfa03345529ee3e1dd04d089e8525.png

And the 18z run shows how much snow could be possible:

snow15.thumb.png.1152d1d56e0615b4a3d39eb3842dcaf6.pngsnow16.thumb.png.30ea3472d1046c514e64fb531140e5f6.pngsnow17.thumb.png.3a737a96064a2be8ab7a8acc996240cb.pngsnow18.thumb.png.bc12c34e8dbff7290afa71e347720384.png

However, the GEM says 'No thanks!' with an angry expression:

snow19.thumb.png.6d14fef08825b4eda933ff4df15e6811.pngsnow20.thumb.png.5ff53c8938953da318c8de12ff7d2848.pngsnow21.thumb.png.9acca175faf28e21a4697f64941bb1de.pngsnow22.thumb.png.c5dea620440bf76d44f3c8cb72c93deb.png

Lastly... the GFS shows a band of rain bumping into some cold air and producing some fairly heavy snow at the start of March!

snow23.thumb.png.dac54610e44bdb4ce493281dc029c5a1.pngsnow24.thumb.png.1d3dc735d247ba82ec676933ad0147d4.pngsnow25.thumb.png.0f87fc80a9853d7a8eb010cd66b354c9.pngsnow26.thumb.png.4829fba57ef7eb3fc37472bce6c58141.png

snow27.thumb.png.7d9b037b4f197bbea61065868ee637a7.pngsnow28.thumb.png.e183600cbffe33a7ee22fbe1ea563c69.pngsnow29.thumb.png.7749805a78c2f03ad5b080a3b0581c6a.pngsnow30.thumb.png.122ab30774511b995c924870877a8cc4.png

And if you spring lovers are getting a bit hungry for some dry, mild and settled weather, then days 15 and 16 are showing some of that!!

snow31.thumb.png.c038807caf0b385af8c4a0a1a59ebd25.pngsnow32.thumb.png.2385020a545be6aa222459f613e67958.pngsnow33.thumb.png.d507ea1b7fabe7a7772475e9953d4ea7.pngsnow34.thumb.png.8ebe59e8a6e643dc179ede4e8b0a9162.png

Obviously, as these are quite far out, they are not meant to be taken seriously. Just for the fun!

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