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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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The GEM (in which I got told by many people is a trustworthy model) is also showing a cold spell next week... :oldgood:

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It seems to me looking at the models over the past few weeks that we are indeed completely stuck now with this barrage and bombardment of wind, rain, wind, rain, storms ad nausium. 

Am i the only one who feels that this long passage of low pressure systems hurtling across the Atlantic for such a sustained period is very unusual - even for the UK? - taking into account it is (albeit late) winter. I can see no end to this for weeks (or even longer). Is this so unusual?

As an interested model watcher do any of you see any correlation to the dreaded 'Climate Change' ?

 

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

The GEM (in which I got told by many people is a trustworthy model) is also showing a cold spell next week... :oldgood:

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gem0.png

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Cold and wet, I can’t get too excited I’ll be honest...  

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A variation on a theme so far on the latest GFS, suggestion of a building of heights out over greenland, interesting to see if that goes anywhere... 

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gfsnh-0-180.png

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8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Another cold and wintry gfs for next week!!finally something to look forward to!!a bit late but better than nothing!

Larger cold pool to the NW, but is it cold enough? 

Edit.... Actually yes, perhaps! 

So no guarantees and might be marginal away from the north, but a trend in the right direction. 

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Edited by Griff
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Looking more likely from the charts on a wintery next week with snow possible not just restricted to 

the north and high ground.The south may get it’s first sight of the white stuff just when everybody was 

giving up,never say die.

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1 hour ago, Griff said:

A variation on a theme so far on the latest GFS, suggestion of a building of heights out over greenland, interesting to see if that goes anywhere... 

gfsnh-0-174.png

gfsnh-0-180.png

There's no building of heights over Greenland on them charts.  Just a little amplification.

You need yellow colours for higher heights.

Edited by joggs
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Just now, joggs said:

There's no building of heights over Greenland on them charts.  Just a little amplification.

"suggestion of a building of heights out over greenland, interesting to see if that goes anywhere..." ?

 

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Just now, Griff said:

"suggestion of a building of heights out over greenland, interesting to see if that goes anywhere..." ?

 

Sorry. No suggestion of it either.

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To be honest I'm not getting the vibe, comparison of the 12z suite at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.a5255efc72658c3946a9c15182ec746a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.cb887ed42d0e696b4f22aadbd5df1139.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3d20ca660ce22c87e2ab1e3060f5d52b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.90d1e4226a267e10e3da4da073a8860c.jpg

GEM by far the best for cold, but even then, T850s:

image.thumb.jpg.476e901854038593562a93a731660fd7.jpg

Trying to interpret the op models, I'm not sure where the amplification that some are seeing is coming from, MJO is deceased:

image.thumb.jpg.0679b00477e9cafeb21a2b47f3b131e8.jpg

Strat vortex is still as strong as nails both now and T240:

image.thumb.jpg.64f7a8cde00e25cc5a75d286956dd62c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a94fdde6fe8253437ea70aa0a5f29d06.jpg

 

I think the winter from hell will indeed continue to beyond the cutoff date of 29th Feb. And something wintry may affect some places in spring, but for us in the south, it would never amount to much, and we'd like some sunny and settled weather.

Finally, good to see you back posting, Karl!

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Can't post the ens at the min..but some notable clustering gathering... Beyond the drop line....winter seems to be saving itself ....with perhaps a sting?!

Edited by tight isobar
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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

To be honest I'm not getting the vibe, comparison of the 12z suite at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.a5255efc72658c3946a9c15182ec746a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.cb887ed42d0e696b4f22aadbd5df1139.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3d20ca660ce22c87e2ab1e3060f5d52b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.90d1e4226a267e10e3da4da073a8860c.jpg

GEM by far the best for cold, but even then, T850s:

image.thumb.jpg.476e901854038593562a93a731660fd7.jpg

Trying to interpret the op models, I'm not sure where the amplification that some are seeing is coming from, MJO is deceased:

image.thumb.jpg.0679b00477e9cafeb21a2b47f3b131e8.jpg

Strat vortex is still as strong as nails both now and T240:

image.thumb.jpg.64f7a8cde00e25cc5a75d286956dd62c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a94fdde6fe8253437ea70aa0a5f29d06.jpg

 

I think the winter from hell will indeed continue to beyond the cutoff date of 29th Feb. And something wintry may affect some places in spring, but for us in the south, it would never amount to much, and we'd like some sunny and settled weather.

Finally, good to see you back posting, Karl!

There plenty of corrective data plots awaiting 1  thinks...and rekonin with upper air spreads b4 3days out is not necessary mike. ..as for the mjo..I've opted out with that 1 weeks back!

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

There plenty of corrective data plots awaiting 1  thinks...and rekonin with upper air spreads beyond 3days out is not necessary mike. ..as for the mjo..I've opted out with that 1 weeks back!

Well TI, I will await the corrective data plots with interest, and hopefully a snowflake or two to boot!!

We clearly agree re the MJO, but almost everything else favouring snow is in my view polishing the proverbial, at the moment anyway...

 

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Next week’s charts would hardly get a mention in most winters. It’s looking colder, but anyone getting excited re significant snow will likely be disappointed, unless they live in the north or have some altitude.

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