Jump to content

Model output discussion 02/02/20


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

Posted Images

Yes GFS looking very mobile with cool/cold Polar Maritime air flows into the run from the N/W, At least something more seasonal on the cards..

94541534_viewimage-2020-02-20T070913_927.thumb.png.6973e2b06b5f3ae89e9d4caa2b9d9eaf.png451724192_viewimage-2020-02-20T070933_606.thumb.png.d330837f8717bb81e08082733584b3fd.png1973196308_viewimage-2020-02-20T071001_146.thumb.png.0419138c2719a7969f4be40775ca7196.png

 

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

Very good gfs if sleet snow rain and the kitchen sink is your thing!!ukmo looks very good aswell!!ecm looks flatter at 144 hours!!hopefully we can get a shortwave sliding across the south back on the 12z!!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

UKMOPEU00_144_1.pngNOAA_1_1995030118_1.png

♪ ♫ Memories light the corners of my mind
Misty water-colored memories of the way we were ♪♫

Very similar charts, can only hope that this year now follows the pattern of 1995 after the horror of the last few weeks.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeez. This pattern really doesn't want to budge. Signs that the really low heights aren't moving away from our NW either, so don't expect the Atlantic conveyor to slow down too much any time soon.

image.thumb.png.01a8a14fd05b3209ba8ad7f17d369632.pngimage.thumb.png.207ed61613dd642a643c2d2e77f115fa.pngimage.thumb.png.f08603121f72e93c64b33cf37b8405d8.png

Unsettled, and quite wet throughout. Not many areas missing the heavy rain - East Anglia and Eastern Scotland perhaps. Flooding to continue.

image.thumb.png.6c325d32e743030a62d10ba3b5fba4fe.png


Still no signs of the PV weakening in the next 2 weeks either.


image.thumb.png.23dd06cd1a3da37e64e00ebd60e6550a.pngimage.thumb.png.34996c523f918061e89b81abf0c9a815.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Very similar charts, can only hope that this year now follows the pattern of 1995 after the horror of the last few weeks.

Oddly on the 22nd February 1995, an active cold front pushed SEwards, similiar to what is happening today. Squall line, a notable temperature drop. almost 25 years ago  to the day.

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Models are certainly agreeing on some plumes of cold air travelling to the British Isles next week!

Take this on day 6:

cold.thumb.png.c89cddf8475124134ce09ead0387f198.pngcold0.thumb.png.e7b6a3717c16977f3fb0858dabfd88a7.pngcold1.thumb.png.9daf9317a7493061f351644be96fa351.pngcold2.thumb.png.ed0806cb177ba2eecc92fd767e20479b.png

...and on days 8 and 9!

cold3.thumb.png.514477625ac86f5e65210c5e8976ecbf.pngcold4.thumb.png.61fa738cb49d726e52b826a861721eb4.pngcold5.thumb.png.f05fdcd5f559d3a763ea449d5cee3eeb.pngcold6.thumb.png.113ab35062f4e5113e74e59731175f32.png

And also something interesting that caught my eye. Looks like a nasty storm brewing in the Atlantic.

cold7.thumb.png.c4d8094006e5b0882376d4faf56750ac.pngcold8.thumb.png.c3a776678da76607cb54e822ab92d47a.pngcold9.thumb.png.8da822f97268770469a0b40ae62c7929.png

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a quick one from me... I'm liking the fall away from the ECM ens... Let it gather momentum! 

On a parting note, I've just noticed 3 of the most important words now in the Guinness book of world records.... Are.... SHORTWAVE.... AMPLIFIED AND FLATTENS.... ?

graphe0_00_264_61___.png

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Snow possible here, snow possible there.

Snow possible... EVERYWHERE??!?

snow.pngsnow0.pngsnow1.pngsnow2.png

 

 

Yes, but looks more like hills & higher ground to me... FI notwithstanding! 

image.thumb.png.80ee3d4eca32c0fe186b167d70e78587.pngimage.thumb.png.0114b5fbc9e1ccfbe8bf2ce26420176c.png

Edited by Selliso
Link to post
Share on other sites

Not a bad run all-in-all: snow opportunities for many, and just look at that anomalous warmth building?:clap:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

We might need swap the Bermuda shorts for the Nanook of The North getup (and back) a few times, between now and June?:oldgood:

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice to see this thread start to become more active again as the true winter we have all been waiting for arrives!! ?

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Not a bad run all-in-all: snow opportunities for many, and just look at that anomalous warmth building?:clap:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

We might need swap the Bermuda shorts for the Nanook of The North getup (and back) a few times, between now and June?:oldgood:

Hey Pete.... It can mean only 1 thing!!! Thundersnow!! ? Just had a gander at those 6z ensembles, and there are definitely some signs of interest. But for me, there seems to be a little more excitement building compared to the last numerous weeks, where nothing was showing at all. 

gens-4-0-192.png

gens-5-0-384.png

gens-5-1-384.png

gens-6-0-228.png

gens-6-1-216.png

gens-9-0-228.png

gens-8-0-324.png

gens-8-1-324.png

gens-11-0-384.png

gens-11-1-384.png

gens-13-0-372.png

gens-14-0-216.png

gens-14-1-204.png

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Judging from the chaotic nature of today's GEFS 06Z ensembles, Fantasy Island ensues rather rapidly just now!:shok:

prmslBedfordshire.png    t850Bedfordshire.png

prcpBedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

One thing though: maxes of only 5C (with increasing insolation) in late Feb/early Smarch, would be good enough for snow...:oldgood:

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...