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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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24 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Anybody else finding issues on meteocial with the gfs 12z run???

Is it stuck at 18h?

.... Appears very slow but has updated. 

Edited by Griff
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For those bored of waiting for the GFS to come out you can also find it if you type in NCEP model guidance in your search engine .

If you go to the main page it gives you a choice of regions .

Edited by nick sussex
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22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Don't know, but wouldn't be surprised at all if March is the coldest month of the year. That cold will have to shift at some point. 

100% with you here....it's shaping that way......

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58 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Don't know, but wouldn't be surprised at all if March is the coldest month of the year. That cold will have to shift at some point. 

The bar isn’t very high(low) ?

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9 hours ago, tcc said:

Quick question for those who might know, as the cold air is still bottled up for a considerable amount of time, will that mean that once we have the final warming then all that very cold air will head to the mid latitudes? So we might get a blast of winter (albeit probably late March/April!)

 

More likely it'll spark a steep temperature gradient as two air masses collide and spark storminess in the mid latitudes, whilst N blocking takes hold?

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20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

More likely it'll spark a steep temperature gradient as two air masses collide and spark storminess in the mid latitudes, whilst N blocking takes hold?

I think you're right enough, re the tight temperature-gradient, Crewe...Though I think such has been evident for much of the 'winter'; the -5 and +5 isotherms have been very close, for most of the time?

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10 days out on the GFS looking vaguely cold, - 8 (850hPa) widely... Yes I know straw clutching and what could possibly go wrong between then... ? 

gfsnh-0-240.png

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Models are trending colder now in the long term.Not a surprise with winter coming to an end 

Yes looks like trending colder as we go into March and still unsettled, ain't that just typical. 

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.52ee239320e7a0bb0b8eb6fddfcdd165.gif

 

And the ECM showing it's first half decent (if you can call it that) cold snap of the winter.

ECH1-192.thumb.png.d641474082e95ba4274fe86d71891bb0.pngECH1-240.thumb.png.58ebfb8b2b377600fe4e3cab578113ba.png

ECM0-192.thumb.gif.138237b247708fffbda7ef3bd5fe4b1e.gifECM0-216.thumb.gif.e9ecf24a2c78896ea1ecf21106f67905.gifECM0-240.thumb.gif.4eb8f3eaa89bbf81103b32b7187e6c56.gif

 

 

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10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Models are trending colder now in the long term.Not a surprise with winter coming to an end 

Certainly looking chilly next week but the HP builds in at the end of the month and it may be back to the usual "sine wave" but interesting to see the LP slide SE into Europe albeit to the east of us rather than seeing Europe covered in a huge HP area.

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4 minutes ago, stodge said:

Certainly looking chilly next week but the HP builds in at the end of the month and it may be back to the usual "sine wave" but interesting to see the LP slide SE into Europe albeit to the east of us rather than seeing Europe covered in a huge HP area.

Yes, I was thinking something similar, as each of the recent GFS runs end by restoring the norm, mild and westerly, but like we're used to seeing cold only in FI what chance the pattern returning to mild after a cold shot next week can also remain stuck in FI. At least the trend towards cold might be light at the end of the tunnel (or possibly just another head on collision with the zonal train approaching...). 

Edited by Griff
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6 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yes, I was thinking something similar, as each of the recent GFS runs end by restoring the norm, mild and westerly, but like we're used to seeing cold only in FI what chance the pattern returning to mild after a cold shot next week can also remain stuck in FI. At least the trend towards cold might be light at the end of the tunnel (or possibly just another head on collision with the zonal train approaching...). 

Probably will turn colder in March, but wet not white for most of us I bet, cold enough though to push the old heating bills up and just prolong this misery of a winter.

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The latest GFS run shows something for the coldies! ❄️

Two plumes of cold air are possible.

The first one on day 7:

cold.thumb.png.dde9fa069b4de5ab149eb5589f7ffe79.pngcold0.thumb.png.2fb1f785d3c7087749c3be4a0ef35842.pngcold1.thumb.png.84fcb96f90286973d27589af34f4d4a2.png

And the second one on days 9 and 10:

cold2.thumb.png.77b5785354316b82989b0c5fc3debcf1.pngcold3.thumb.png.76eb7fe6f6d3e0d0123d3842ff823ab4.pngcold4.thumb.png.6eda7e2904ea01678327c7144b252699.pngcold5.thumb.png.5ace30230fa7875c5e314351324464d4.png

If bands of heavy rain bump into this cold air, then saying what will happen is needless!

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Can the end of the month somehow provide a little southern snowfall..... chances are smaller than slim but could this little runner gain some support and bring some snowfall on its northern edge? 

C65C2874-8839-4D88-AA9A-EEA533566176.thumb.png.a9436dbc5dfa8a167501c2f186503451.png3E25195D-C914-472C-A5B9-D05056136A9A.thumb.png.a4a79715e5c381b453ccb2c0212d8d53.png

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43 minutes ago, Zak M said:

If bands of heavy rain bump into this cold air, then saying what will happen is needless!

Usually what happens is that the cold get pushed east and it turns milder. Only way for heavy widespread snow is for a low to undercut a block and there is no model showing a proper block unfortunately 

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The wettest weather tonight for northwest England and parts of western, southwestern Scotland where 40-60mm could accumulate perhaps even more also very wet for parts of Wales and Northern Ireland too..

Arpege.. ?

587696764_12_10_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.a3799f8091e7d1f5c524f6c343b988d1.png

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this rain band pushes eastwards through tomorrow, becoming very windy for England and Wales after dawn with wind gusts of 35-45mph locally 50mph developing ahead of and within the cold front bringing the rain. 

GFS wind gusts.. ?

12_21_windvector_gust.thumb.png.55a1819957174bcc654e3c67f3d64f35.png

Also a chance of some sleet and snow on the back edge of this for parts of Northern England and north Wales in particular during tomorrow winds will ease behind this front introducing colder air across the country. 

Upper air temperatures.. 

12_30_uk850.thumb.png.2d514c2921f926cd4760d5d53a7c2d75.png

A fair few wintry showers move into northwestern parts of the country these most frequent for Scotland. 

Further heavy rain effects northern Ireland and particularly western Scotland and Northern England during Friday this sinks southwards with wintry showers moving back in. 

The weekend is looking quite cold and windy a disturbance probably moves through Central England on Saturday night into sunday with hill snow possible but also more heavy rain this may effect southern England too with strong winds accompanying this. 

1891803538_EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_90(2).thumb.jpg.fe242a5b0b230624b7174ff64ff9f27b.jpg

A deep area of low pressure will likely develop and move into Scotland or just to the north early next week bringing the potential for a spell of heavy snow for a time for Scotland from an active warm front and also the risk of Severe gales here too. 

Icon.. ?

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12_114_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.6b1970707c74f5e4532a5c048291b504.png

Next week after Monday it probably turns colder generally with wintry showers around perhaps longer spells of sleet and snow in some places. ?

Edited by jordan smith
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Quiet rightly so Matt

all models are showing a cold NW'ly blast next week,in fact looking beyond that it looks unsettled with further bowt's of cool/cold NW'ly blasts with low pressure systems diving NW>SE with cold air behind,we just need to see some more amplification in the models to get more of a cold snap,those more favorable the further NW and at elevation,rinse and repeat so far this winter.

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Good morning all.

Winter will be over in a blink of an eye @Mattwolves ??? hahhahhaha. Only joking.

Something wintry is a definite possibility over the period of a few weeks. Will be surprised if this winter ends without a pinch of snow here. I haven't even received sleet yet alone snow!! ??

However, spring is upon us! I saw some little white leaves growing on a tree in my back garden. And they grow when spring arrives!

Anyway, back on topic.

More wet weather likely tomorrow for the British Isles, especially down south, where a band of heavy rain, perhaps a squall line developing, moves through. This can bring gusty winds along with it, and from a post I saw on Twitter by TORRO, tornadoes and lightning is possible. The band of rain will also be present in northern England and Scotland, but probably not squally. The band of rain should of already cleared off in the morning if you live in Northern Ireland. Temperatures will be mild down south in the morning, with temperatures ranging from 7-11c. Temperatures in the north should range from 4-10c in the morning.

thursday.thumb.png.eb5f88bff98f47a45dc8971021a7e324.pngthursday0.thumb.png.05ff5ef1fe351ea357476c2b52d58d5a.png

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In the afternoon, the band of heavy, perhaps squall rain, should have cleared in western parts of the British Isles, with the rest of the rain clearing in the late afternoon. However, behind this band of rain, will be some showers. These showers will be heavy, perhaps thundery, and could be accompanied with hail. If you live in the Midlands and north of that, then you could see some sleet or snow falling in these places. There could be a chance of one or two of these showers merging into longer spells of rain/snow. The band of rain that passed through would of been a cold front, and by lunchtime, the temperatures would slowly start to drop, becoming very chilly in places. Temperatures in the south should range from 4-9c, and they should range from 2-6c in the north in the afternoon.

thursday5.thumb.png.c7d38a6d23c55fe195c74506899e5ed7.pngthursday6.thumb.png.59c3ce0faca05ae9b59942f0decce850.png

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In the evening/overnight, the showers will still be present, with the chances of hail, thunder, and sleet or snow falling in places. Most parts of the British Isles though could actually see some evening sunshine as it sets over the horizon. Temperatures in the evening/overnight in the south should range from 2-5c, an in the north, they should range from 0-5c.

thursday11.thumb.png.057eadf13669a865258bd23fd5660c6b.pngthursday12.thumb.png.4c96f2a120b4f36d49cc82a01a0a6eab.png

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(Apologies if I do jumble the charts up again ?)

Have a good morning everyone!

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morning  all  dont  know  what the  gfs  had for dinner last  night   its  not good for  the flooded  areas   from  now  to deep  fantasy  world.  as its  looks now  you name it its comeing  our way  for at least  the  next 2 weeks of  wet weather,and possible more storms

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