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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Evening all ?

A diverse and divergent set of output this evening in the medium to longer term. As the AO comes off its stratospheric (pardon the pun) levels, there seems a greater sense of uncertainty.

Will we see a break in the strongly Atlantic-driven pattern and how will that break manifest? One option clearly is repeated builds of pressure from the SW ending with an MLB either over southern Britain or just to the SE over Europe. It's perfectly possible though the HP cells are rapidly flattened by the all-powerful jet, at least in the short term. As we move further into March and the TPV begins to weaken, will we see the HP signal develop further?

Another option is we keep in the current pattern with strong LP system dominant and HP only influencing as transient features - again, it's possible but eventually the Atlantic will amplify and we'll get a large storm slowdown somewhere enabling pressure to rise in front of it.

That leads to the third scenario -- amplification. This winter has seen so many of the usual signals and teleconnections suppressed or weakened (perhaps by the IOD) but nothing lasts forever and in time amplification will return to the northern hemisphere possibly as spring allows the TPV to weaken and slacken its grip. As the latter happens, the question will be whether the cards will fall right for UK fans of cold. They don't usually - they may not this time.

I see no serious change until mid-March in all honesty - it may be the HP will periodically settle conditions down especially for southern areas but the residual strength in the TPV (no sign of any warming yet) will prevent a serious MLB build let alone any ridging into Scandinavia so the HP flattens across Europe until the next LP comes in. I do think we will see amplification in a month or so which will make for some interesting synoptics but how the cards will drop remains to be seen.

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Maybe some interest next week as colder uppers start to filter south...both gfs and ecm have this little feature crossing the uk wrapped in sub -5 uppers...no doubt the track will change slightly run to run but could be some signicant snow on its northern side..

 

GFSOPEU00_180_1-2.png

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The 0z GFS continues to show a rampant Atlantic. I've never seen anything like it at this time of year. It's more like October than February. Astonishing, astonishing, conditions.

666380826_Screenshot2020-02-17at07_02_27.thumb.png.9160f899d9e9ad341498a003df16fd56.png

123292994_Screenshot2020-02-17at07_02_55.thumb.png.4a2927bff5b40590386f64807036f361.png

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54 minutes ago, West is Best said:

The 0z GFS continues to show a rampant Atlantic. I've never seen anything like it at this time of year. It's more like October than February. Astonishing, astonishing, conditions.

666380826_Screenshot2020-02-17at07_02_27.thumb.png.9160f899d9e9ad341498a003df16fd56.png

123292994_Screenshot2020-02-17at07_02_55.thumb.png.4a2927bff5b40590386f64807036f361.png

February 1990, 1997 and 2002 comes to mind

 

Hope ECM 0z is not correct. Look at those 240hr rainfall totals for areas that don't need it.

accprecip_20200217_00_240.jpgaccprecip_20200217_00_240.jpg

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Well folks, all I can do is to try and look past the current very unsettled synoptics and hope for something better...and this, in the unlikely event that it were to verify, would certainly be better!:oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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37 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well folks, all I can do is to try and look past the current very unsettled synoptics and hope for something better...and this, in the unlikely event that it were to verify, would certainly be better!:oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Have to admit, would choose that High Pressure chart over the constant train and soggy weather the Atlantic Lows been unleashing apon us! Just need to find the Tardis and jump a few weeks into the future to Spring. (With the way this Winter’s behaving, that’s the only thing that is appealing right now lol).

That GEM chart Tim Bland posted does look interesting for having more of an Arctic Maritime influence from the North for the UK. Winter probably will snatch it away as usual. But guess we’ll find out whether it’s being too amplified, or whether the ECMWF and GFS are being a little bit flat with the outcome, at the moment. 

In the closer timeframe, it looks like a further continuation of the mobile, Atlantic, Westerly theme with varying cooler and milder periods. And further spells of wind, showers and rain, some wintry over Northern hills at times. Best of the milder conditions towards the South-East, particularly later into this week as High Pressure rocks about to the South/South-East of the UK:

65B2EDCD-EE1A-475B-ACAD-C85590C28105.thumb.png.7fe7fb284fe315dfafe0625862a1c4d1.png

South-Eastern areas generally tending to see the best of the brighter less unsettled conditions too.

The strong blue and purples to the North and North-West of the UK (Polar Vortex) together with the strong heights to the South, bringing quite a strong Jetstream through the UK encouraging a strong, Westerly, active pattern.

Today and tomorrow though will be will be quite chilly for all, as a cool, showery, Westerly flow dominates:
F2A2D91E-1F35-4891-BA7C-F63090C5BAB4.thumb.png.2ed4e31961815394064b9ff9706e3dc4.pngBFBB4998-9E3D-41BA-9045-081D59B4D6A4.thumb.png.37a4579c906d8f2779d9963b3dae6bd5.pngF2474F3C-4C2D-4CF7-9FFE-2058B6174985.thumb.png.23e13b048134f9964bfa2a974d92c5f2.pngD0770487-B769-4710-B6B0-C68CB9CDDB50.thumb.png.c8e505647923e7c314332cf1b78a9fcf.png

The airmass, especially at the 850 hPa temperature level for Northern areas, looks cold enough for showers to have some wintry flavour to them. But most likely over the Northern High ground. Perhaps a few flakes reaching some lower levels across the North.

The chilly theme looking to last into Wednesday:

32CCA78C-E270-427D-AB83-8D5A2040C05F.thumb.png.546a7f3171a8bf204598c75af7506110.png4F3078BA-0F97-4080-8C66-F2EA99609AB7.thumb.png.4ec63b827bdb91151f3d18b0019f7a3a.pngFFA06D01-61F7-40F5-B83A-91DB3FA168A0.thumb.png.a1db4e8c5a70311071e71f73f4d0a5e4.png
 

...although some rain, possibly with some leading edge sleet and snow on high ground over Northern UK, looks to spill in from the West later into the morning and early afternoon.

 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM is probably best case scenario. :

39A6B060-6F2D-4C86-A473-3511559AA311.png

Another typical highly over amplified chart from the GEM. Probably see some Polar Maritime in the mix to end the month, capping off an absolutely woeful winter. All eyes on how the final warming will develop! 

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The GFS hints some more settled and milder air to take place at the start of March.

Look what's happening over there in NE America. Imagine if that was over the UK!

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36 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Another typical highly over amplified chart from the GEM. Probably see some Polar Maritime in the mix to end the month, capping off an absolutely woeful winter. All eyes on how the final warming will develop! 

Possibly, but worth noting that for the majority of this season GEM has been outperforming the GFS, hence why I put more faith in it than the GFS ...

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3 hours ago, West is Best said:

The 0z GFS continues to show a rampant Atlantic. I've never seen anything like it at this time of year. It's more like October than February. Astonishing, astonishing, conditions.

666380826_Screenshot2020-02-17at07_02_27.thumb.png.9160f899d9e9ad341498a003df16fd56.png

123292994_Screenshot2020-02-17at07_02_55.thumb.png.4a2927bff5b40590386f64807036f361.png

Totally agree...when the Atlantic should be somewhat quieter and we get this, a complete conveyor belt.

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18 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well peeps, improvements from Day 10?????

Anyone heading for The Canary Islands? @Bristle boy?:oldgood:

Yep? late March, for quite a long stay.

Interestingly the Canaries, this last couple of months, have finally bucked their cool-Winter run of last 3 years. It's been warmer, of late, compared to last few winters, according to friends over there. Here's hoping for temps into mid-20s by late March. Would welcome a dry, warm start to Spring here.

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Any reason why gfs keeps throwing out mild outliers ,when their are plenty of colder runs in the pack?

Maybe because it hasn’t a clue is my opinion.

Junk of a model sometimes as well.

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19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Any reason why gfs keeps throwing out mild outliers ,when their are plenty of colder runs in the pack?

Maybe because it hasn’t a clue is my opinion.

Junk of a model sometimes as well.

Assume if it was showing a cold run then it would no longer be junk in your eyes?

Every month this winter has been above average, so I would tend to lean towards a mild FI being more likely to be correct than a cold one. 

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I think next week will be an interesting week in terms of model watching, with the potential of more Atlantic storms and models suggesting plumes of mild air with settled conditions, and other models suggesting plumes of cold air with unsettled conditions.

Some things I have my eye on is what could happen at the end of February. I decided to have a look at the GFS (as I barely look at any other models ?) showing the seal level pressure. Some people think that more storms are on their way, and technically, there is a yes, and there is a no.

Because this is still a long way out, this are likely to change or will change. 

So first off, a deep area of low pressure on day 9 is out in the Atlantic. The jet stream that is powering along the low doesn't look as strong compared to recent ones.

storm.thumb.png.6ae97b51ed2d9f79c6a675d1a12109b7.pngstorm0.thumb.png.ed84af0db0d3faf67cf3eceea6231bb8.pngstorm1.thumb.png.e4f0c476790d177b7bdffdba3cfdbff4.pngstorm2.thumb.png.2a0b419bb3b997ef447d11aeed662d60.png

The low takes a direct hit as Scotland, resulting in pretty windy conditions over there.

storm3.thumb.png.cd7600dba9e15995ad4d81b056a79bd9.pngstorm4.thumb.png.c9545d499e6c34d9d88a1d5daa04d256.pngstorm5.thumb.png.97bd4a63a0317c5fdea56ebf2bf4086e.pngstorm6.thumb.png.502fd2a3f7ee5b80fa7c43a757e6e394.png

storm7.thumb.png.4d3df3e13eea4f95a36a140b14fad9ea.pngstorm8.thumb.png.116f4f6283a97cf0013c1df7b4bf450b.pngstorm9.thumb.png.e5d518be0e85bd8429ab19c94d878c94.pngstorm10.thumb.png.ece483a73a9ebeb46ab6f5162387ece8.png

 

And then on days 14, 15 and 16, another low pressure system develops in the Atlantic. Currently by the looks of it, it won't directly hit the UK, although stormy conditions are possible in northern parts.

 

storm27.thumb.png.b98bb8f90e668be9147e8c25aa57de39.pngstorm28.thumb.png.2cf5b7322dc446addfd8a1e3c0a87399.pngstorm29.thumb.png.4e19b2fbc9f88da8158d4e31f9f332a0.pngstorm30.thumb.png.50d48f07ce9b1c640d4e88dd51dcab24.png

storm31.thumb.png.20317e87f74d6330cf2d8ca5a2184622.pngstorm32.thumb.png.bbc32f5fc4b14afe86eb07b5ac5e2aa0.pngstorm33.thumb.png.a0fc399b33e5709ded89cc447bcc9ac9.pngstorm34.thumb.png.e2298963cf840d73879a8935f9fcb2d5.png

This possible storm is being powered by a very strong jet stream too:

storm23.thumb.png.31d46e440b07c75ca6b7697237607473.pngstorm24.thumb.png.f86622c6448127ff8851073855090fce.pngstorm25.thumb.png.1b2489b55ebc4b129bf938dd22b9eafc.pngstorm26.thumb.png.95f6ad68d8053e37f1b4c67060b2f120.png

An interesting week to come!

Edited by Zak M
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15 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Assume if it was showing a cold run then it would no longer be junk in your eyes?

Every month this winter has been above average, so I would tend to lean towards a mild FI being more likely to be correct than a cold one. 

If it was a cold outlier going down to minus 20  hpa then of course it would be correct ?

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10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Doesn't look particularly warm to me; neither does it look like a true outlier...Just a wee bit random, as one might expect for a transitional period??

image.thumb.png.40ba351b0ea7a380ec814acaced40783.png   t850Bedfordshire.png

That 960mb member though...

gens-16-1-216.png

Presumably lower still in some areas. That would blow away the cobwebs. And most of the British Isles.

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56 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I think next week will be an interesting week in terms of model watching, with the potential of more Atlantic storms and models suggesting plumes of mild air with settled conditions, and other models suggesting plumes of cold air with unsettled conditions.

Some things I have my eye on is what could happen at the end of February. I decided to have a look at the GFS (as I barely look at any other models ?) showing the seal level pressure. Some people think that more storms are on their way, and technically, there is a yes, and there is a no.

Because this is still a long way out, this are likely to change or will change. 

So first off, a deep area of low pressure on day 9 is out in the Atlantic. The jet stream that is powering along the low doesn't look as strong compared to recent ones.

storm.thumb.png.6ae97b51ed2d9f79c6a675d1a12109b7.pngstorm0.thumb.png.ed84af0db0d3faf67cf3eceea6231bb8.pngstorm1.thumb.png.e4f0c476790d177b7bdffdba3cfdbff4.pngstorm2.thumb.png.2a0b419bb3b997ef447d11aeed662d60.png

The low takes a direct hit as Scotland, resulting in pretty windy conditions over there.

storm3.thumb.png.cd7600dba9e15995ad4d81b056a79bd9.pngstorm4.thumb.png.c9545d499e6c34d9d88a1d5daa04d256.pngstorm5.thumb.png.97bd4a63a0317c5fdea56ebf2bf4086e.pngstorm6.thumb.png.502fd2a3f7ee5b80fa7c43a757e6e394.png

storm7.thumb.png.4d3df3e13eea4f95a36a140b14fad9ea.pngstorm8.thumb.png.116f4f6283a97cf0013c1df7b4bf450b.pngstorm9.thumb.png.e5d518be0e85bd8429ab19c94d878c94.pngstorm10.thumb.png.ece483a73a9ebeb46ab6f5162387ece8.png

 

And then on days 14, 15 and 16, another low pressure system develops in the Atlantic. Currently by the looks of it, it won't directly hit the UK, although stormy conditions are possible in northern parts.

 

storm27.thumb.png.b98bb8f90e668be9147e8c25aa57de39.pngstorm28.thumb.png.2cf5b7322dc446addfd8a1e3c0a87399.pngstorm29.thumb.png.4e19b2fbc9f88da8158d4e31f9f332a0.pngstorm30.thumb.png.50d48f07ce9b1c640d4e88dd51dcab24.png

storm31.thumb.png.20317e87f74d6330cf2d8ca5a2184622.pngstorm32.thumb.png.bbc32f5fc4b14afe86eb07b5ac5e2aa0.pngstorm33.thumb.png.a0fc399b33e5709ded89cc447bcc9ac9.pngstorm34.thumb.png.e2298963cf840d73879a8935f9fcb2d5.png

This possible storm is being powered by a very strong jet stream too:

storm23.thumb.png.31d46e440b07c75ca6b7697237607473.pngstorm24.thumb.png.f86622c6448127ff8851073855090fce.pngstorm25.thumb.png.1b2489b55ebc4b129bf938dd22b9eafc.pngstorm26.thumb.png.95f6ad68d8053e37f1b4c67060b2f120.png

An interesting week to come!

Couldn't be more of a direct hit if it tried.... That's a sign of a lot more wind and rain if ever I saw one

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Well it looks like MJO won't give us an help with regards to helping with a pattern change. GFS/GEFS started off going through at decent amplitude through 7 and towards 8, but last few days has headed closer and closer to COD - where ECM has been resolutely residing all along.

902897042_diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member(1).thumb.gif.14b9f6f2725ac2b1cbecc15bf50e40d2.gif1194807416_ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small(1).thumb.gif.8b5795e7d755158b71c31fd3680ffb8e.gif

With the Polar Vortex looking to stay strong over the arctic, AO looks like having another peak at +6 on the index, then there is no impetus for blocking at high enough latitude to bring cold and wintry weather other than brief cold shots from the NW or N over the next few weeks IMO.

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-ao-box-1897600.thumb.png.aee0fbd34764bcf8022ebdb0a9a22356.png

So, more of the same that we've had the last couple of weeks or more, though hopefully with less prolonged rainfall!

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4 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep? late March, for quite a long stay.

Interestingly the Canaries, this last couple of months, have finally bucked their cool-Winter run of last 3 years. It's been warmer, of late, compared to last few winters, according to friends over there. Here's hoping for temps into mid-20s by late March. Would welcome a dry, warm start to Spring here.

Fuerteventura has seen a good February so far, much better than recent winters and better than some summers!

Anyway going back on topic I think the rest of Feb will play out as a north.south divide between warmer/dryer and cooler/wetter. 

I can't see the Atlantic losing out but I also don't think its got as much power as the past 2 weeks.

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