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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

The GFS has done it again.

210-515UK_vqr5.GIF

Winds are off the scale on Meteociel

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Ooh - 100mph winds! Burns Night 1990 or 1987 Michael Fish 'hurricane' redux? ?

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Well you lot up north may be in for a treat, but us in the SE are looking to get very wet.  Shame really I hate wind and rain together.  The models have been hinting a bit of white stuff might reach us here but i doubt it.  The pic below is the best for my area.  Not to be taken as right mind you just a guide.

 

Screenshot_20200203-105326_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Morning all ?

The GFS 06Z is in deep FI but in the short term the broad picture is quite clear - a midweek push of HP gives us 3-4 calm days especially in the south and east before the Atlantic takes over with a vengeance next week.

It's going to be hard to give detailed predictions for the timing and impact of secondary LP at this time but they look the most potent aspect as the main monster LP churns away to the north and north west. Rapid cyclogenesis in mid-Atlantic could well create "bomb" type storms which would pass from SW to NE across the country bringing spells of very strong (if not damaging) winds, heavy rain and snow for highest elevations.

So how does this end? Eventually, the Atlantic will lose its speed, perhaps quite rapidly and the rapid amplification could well encourage a new mid-latitude HP to develop close to the British Isles. As the Atlantic slows and amplifies, the trough will dig south and that will further encourage anticyclonic development. Is it going to work in our favour and allow a change of air source? Maybe, maybe not - a relaxing weakening TPV shifting west into northern Canada would encourage a build of HP over Scandinavia and it may be we end up with a mid-latitude HP oscillating between Scandinavia and the British isles (with always that hint/hope of retrogression to Greenland that so rarely comes off).

For now, batten down the hatches for next week as it's going to be wild especially (but not exclusively) for western coastal areas.

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8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Hmm.. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020020300_204.thumb.png.a6b01a3345318eb0944e36975d99e668.png

Not sure which cluster to plump for; We have 6 possibilities and they're all zonal.

I think around D9 there is as close to 100% support, and has been for a while, that zonal is what is coming:

EDH1-216.thumb.gif.876b203993f965910551e4e3aa86269a.gifgensnh-21-1-216.thumb.png.73eaa76afc5461a90c3834bf0416228c.png

The above means confirm this and we are aware that models verify very well in zonal (westerly) setups. The main variables are timings, forcing (Pacific and Arctic), LP systems and those ripples in the flow. The jet is on full throttle and there is cold air close by, so potential is there with the right mix especially for Scotland.

After D10; the consistency on the ops are a continuation of the Pacific High, the tPV becoming less dominant and the net result for our sector, possibly anomalous heights (Azores>Iberian) as the tPV relents, allowing the heights to the south to resurge:

anim_czx4.gif

So if northern blocking is coming in February it is going to be in the last week based on current modelling.

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9BC6F773-15F5-44C0-8082-0550F6340E71.thumb.gif.b2e105739ea86573b48fe67436c6c507.gif
 

The positive AAM anomalies are resuming in the extratropics (at a similar latitude to the UK), which is partially behind the continued and now reinforced +NAO flow. In order for the UK winter pattern to be changed, we need those tropical +AAM transports to move north and -AAM deposits establish close to the poles to help to dislodge the strong tropospheric polar vortex.

1A3876A9-C40C-49A7-9EC0-721F6B274509.thumb.png.d1042ea58dfa5cc1aabc50f6ecbf16e8.png
 

Looking at the top chart’s upward trend, which shows a strengthening stratospheric polar vortex, we are running out of options, except looking towards a consistent zonal outlook. However later in February may be more interesting in terms of the strat.

More details here on my blog for UK/Europe:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/02/03/europe-on-the-long-term-3rd-feb-2/
 

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14 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

9BC6F773-15F5-44C0-8082-0550F6340E71.thumb.gif.b2e105739ea86573b48fe67436c6c507.gif
 

The positive AAM anomalies are resuming in the extratropics (at a similar latitude to the UK), which is partially behind the continued and now reinforced +NAO flow. In order for the UK winter pattern to be changed, we need those tropical +AAM transports to move north and -AAM deposits establish close to the poles to help to dislodge the strong tropospheric polar vortex.

1A3876A9-C40C-49A7-9EC0-721F6B274509.thumb.png.d1042ea58dfa5cc1aabc50f6ecbf16e8.png
 

Looking at the top chart’s upward trend, which shows a strengthening stratospheric polar vortex, we are running out of options, except looking towards a consistent zonal outlook. However later in February may be more interesting in terms of the strat.

More details here on my blog for UK/Europe:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/02/03/europe-on-the-long-term-3rd-feb-2/
 

Perhaps after mid-month we may see things (finally) start to quieten down:

image.thumb.png.9f8539da2d9fd3d2f9a35559d20251fc.png

From this monster vortex..

image.thumb.png.847ac5948e7be327fb07fded85ed5b7a.png

To perhaps this....something a bit more in line with late February:

image.thumb.png.9cf2dbd26b4809dd5a2b63caed031809.png

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So, after 14 days' wind, rain, sleet and other garbage, today's GEF 06Z at least ends on a half-decent note...?

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

If only I had even a modicum of belief that it'll verify!?

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2 hours ago, jules216 said:

near the top left corner is my location which I highlighted in green circle, EC is showing snow depth around 7cm until Wednesday morning,but it is very close and depends on the trajectory of a small low pressure area

Ah ok, It doesn't show your location when reading on a mobile device so I was confused - obviously being UK centric!  

Not irrelevant at all ?

 

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Several posts moved to the moans/banter/chat thread. Keep it to model discussion please folks, not why you like/dislike the type of weather on offer.

Ta.

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Given the GFS has a tendency to over do lows from the Atlantic i wouldnt get too worried yet, if its still there in a few days and other models are looking similar then maybe. something to keep an eye on.

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There is still a general trend to increase pressure past mid month, as well as a reduction in ppn:

image.thumb.png.336f2dacaa77739f46fb1294699690bf.pngimage.thumb.png.13de63213798ebfa16d75b79b01ae99d.png

Once the mean goes above 1020mb it's usually a good sign, but at this range it could just be scatter and noise. One to keep tabs on for the next few days.

 

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Thankfully, the 06Z op's T850s run very near the colder end of the ensembles:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

And so, thank goodness does the SLP: 

prmslBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

Plenty of grounds for believing the operational might be over-egging things a tad?

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I’d be wary of any snow potential until nearer the time because how far south the jet comes can often be overdone in these set ups .

The ECM and GFS seem to be alternating between flatter and more amplified solutions .

Highlighted by today’s 00hrs runs .

The ECM op has much more amplitude upstream . The day ten has a Canadian high and the PV being stretched and higher heights pushing into the Arctic from the Pacific side .

The low near Newfoundland is likely to phase with the chunk of PV and the day 11 would have shown the troughing over the UK pushed further se .

If offered I would take the ECM op at day ten but will that sort of set up survive till tonight .

The story of the winter so far has been the inability of the models to maintain much amplitude once they start counting down .

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Ooh - 100mph winds! Burns Night 1990 or 1987 Michael Fish 'hurricane' redux? ?

Amazing the time wasted on posting these GFS maps that show hurricane force winds at day 8+ with the following apocalyptic warnings - a couple of times this has happened and nearer the time absolutely nothing like what was shown. I suppose it keeps some interest in this bore-fest winter. 

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51 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Latest MJO .....hope for late Febr 7/8/1....its a hell of a game but new round is ahead maybe

 

image.thumb.png.20095e4f35afb28f27bab4a30c3ac985.png

That’s a marked increase in speed of the MJO from yesterday . We saw the same with the previous MJO event . The forecasts then also wanted to drag out phases 4 and 5.

We can only hope that this time if the signal can get into the more favourable phases that it’s not stifled by other factors .

Edited by nick sussex
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1 hour ago, Dennis said:

Latest MJO .....hope for late Febr 7/8/1....its a hell of a game but new round is ahead maybe

 

image.thumb.png.20095e4f35afb28f27bab4a30c3ac985.png

Hi Dennis. Any idea what the composites look like for late Feb/Early Mar for high amplitude 7-8-1 (If it were to occur?)

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2 hours ago, bigsnow said:

Given the GFS has a tendency to over do lows from the Atlantic i wouldnt get too worried yet, if its still there in a few days and other models are looking similar then maybe. something to keep an eye on.

The Ecmwf and Gem have also shown stormy conditions for that time frame a couple of times aswell and with a powerful jetstream currently shown and a big contrast in upper air temperatures developing across the Atlantic through the weekend and early next week which I said yesterday ofcourse. Its no suprise that some outputs are showing secondary lows developing rapidly and bringing stormy conditions. 

Edited by jordan smith
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2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Amazing the time wasted on posting these GFS maps that show hurricane force winds at day 8+ with the following apocalyptic warnings - a couple of times this has happened and nearer the time absolutely nothing like what was shown. I suppose it keeps some interest in this bore-fest winter. 

I think you answered your own statement there.

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