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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The Theta Es over England at 246 are 10c which is perfect for snow when atlantic slides in!

 

GFS at 246 though. I'll wait for IDO to provide the GFS mean before getting to excited.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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GFS getting some decent amplification on the 12z, here T192 and T240:

image.thumb.jpg.3433d81c04fcab3145707d93c20d0f0b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.15e8b76c2f6275225e0eb138e8238d9b.jpg

I am a bit sceptical about where it is getting this from, maybe it is related to its MJO forecast, but this is out of whack compared to ECM, here today's charts:

image.thumb.jpg.5351ab85861ef1bc17d551b26482b573.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.858900748f33609df4049f6ea925d57a.jpg

This stand off has been going on for days now, and any proper winter weather before end Feb for the UK, or the south of it anyway, probably depends on the GFS and ensembles being right.  

Meanwhile, in the reliable, GFS has the strat vortex zonal winds to almost record pace:

image.thumb.jpg.c9e849bbc6cc2e7f5937c77c5790866b.jpg

0z run peaking at T192 at 58 m/s:

image.thumb.jpg.e2a943a8601bda93286d3d81491056bb.jpg

And not much divergence by T384 in the ensembles:

image.thumb.jpg.bcc6d1e853c48fdec02e65c2d26bdb37.jpg

And that is practically the end of Feb.  So now I start wishing us not to have a SSW event, as it is too late to benefit UK cold prospects, and could only mess up summer.

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11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS at 246 though. I'll wait for IDO to provide the GFS mean before getting to excited.

Not sure we should take the mean any more seriously than a single Op.

Besides the building blocks are way before that time frame.

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USA forecasters expect a generally progressive pattern until the weekend then the western trough undergoing some amplification in response to a deep storm over the bay of Alaska .

As that happens you’d expect to see a Canadian high edge east , the degree of amplification of that will then impact the troughing over sw Greenland .

We do need that to sharpen up as that helps to push the ridge ne ahead of it .

If you look at the GFS NH view that’s how its evolution works , that Alaskan storm and its effect downstream.

But you’d need to have that all important jet cut back into the UK . 

That’s often like pulling teeth to get that ! 

Anyway we’ll see what the ECM has to say soon .

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A very stormy weekend to come once again, GFS charts seem to be picking it up well. Can't help but notice how the low literally comes to a standstill on Sunday ?

dennis.thumb.png.84ec804c2823df2d6166a9760b8044e6.pngdennis1.thumb.png.23730a77d83570f65dc5c2a8e44796f5.pngdennis2.thumb.png.b5e152527422aecea51b28abb982824d.pngdennis3.thumb.png.3ff5632bc6a911ab46a088250dc06c52.pngdennis4.thumb.png.371bc34b0f3aa15cd1a523468ab764de.pngdennis5.thumb.png.513667418fa5c2d7394c6940ee4bf078.pngdennis6.thumb.png.d810e7bab6c6ba549c6d48932d1beba6.pngdennis7.thumb.png.c01fc4870b378108d45c4dd9a3455175.pngdennis8.thumb.png.fec5ef7928ecbd494d52ba745b4e1daa.pngdennis9.thumb.png.438bf46a12258511339ea40c44a7cc2d.pngdennis10.thumb.png.67757277a2d6f193802d6b9811f4dc14.pngdennis11.thumb.png.edd0637f48b9d4158ba73f83078cfaf3.pngdennis12.thumb.png.29971371f3b99d4824eed14d8bb7cd8d.pngdennis13.thumb.png.9b860fb24856ae4ecf804d7a78252728.pngdennis14.thumb.png.ddec87bf9f8e7fdce00ae91c9ebae762.png

Edited by Zak M
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More chance of verifying the amplification showing on the gfs as winter is nearing its end lol.

Another snowy start to March?

Some of the recent ensembles have been looking very juicy.

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The mean and control not as amplified as the op on the 12z:

gensnh-0-1-192.thumb.png.8e1b4201c6c6cc8a90fa88eb5ec0cbd0.pnggensnh-21-1-192.thumb.png.c1332a3f5cebe4313355abb95ce30a2f.pnggfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.8fbf0e0336bd21e24f9901b8c048c073.png

No point showing D9+ as the control and mean flattens out very quickly. The op an outside chance as it stands.

All subject to change and the usual caveats.

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Would you Adam and Eve it?  GFS strat T384:

image.thumb.jpg.d7b379c8b91b78b14e3fd90791238a2a.jpg

Can only surmise that this is due to the Scandi high Aleutian low-ish combination earlier in the run, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.32564015eb4c28b96fecb4a420f74f08.jpg

But I don't want it now, it will just lead to a spring apocalypse!  Just more never ending Autumn...on and on it goes....6 months and counting now, although see my earlier post, this run is likely to be wide of the mark!!

Edited by Mike Poole
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An interesting run from the gfs,can we get that cold pool to back even further west on future runs,and a good strat warming on this run to boot

animation from 192>384.

anim_opv6.thumb.gif.6e8a60a8851ebd3dd26ae41a3daf8426.gifanim_nqm9.thumb.gif.795f0d995cfaa9a13335b63051fc557a.gifanim_cik9.thumb.gif.9387d3c2f77879f8d2c955ac4398ed3a.gif

we don't necessarily need an SSW for cold weather to hit the UK but would help,i would think that the mjo is playing a part on this but the ecm says no for the minute,this is unfortunately going to be another waiting game to see if anything transpires of this,we are running out of time. 

 

 

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The mystery of the current MJO divergence of forecasts .

Theres another update later but yesterday’s suggested how the models are factoring in two parcels of convection moving east .

The GEFS is emphasizing  the second and stronger area which is further east and this is the main factor in why its showing the signal getting into phase 7 .

Because even that ambles around for a bit before making that more decisive mood to phase 7 then we won’t know for a few more days which forecast is correct .

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GFS v ECM T168:

image.thumb.jpg.48951cd1bb636749a174f1c88bcdfdc7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ab0778f60074ea0d878b6b00c2b884cf.jpg

Which one you favour might depend on various things, but I think ECM is right on MJO and it's less amplified solution is probably right, unfortunately.

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The low pressure over us on Thursday is still very interesting,just a small movement south will bring more 

of England on to the cold side of the low with snow possibly from Northern England pushing into north midlands.

Not impossible,yes it might not happen but there is still a chance.

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3 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

The low pressure over us on Thursday is still very interesting,just a small movement south will bring more 

of England on to the cold side of the low with snow possibly from Northern England pushing into north midlands.

Not impossible,yes it might not happen but there is still a chance.

Nigh impossible. The adjustment would need to be at least 150-200 miles; at 48hr range, it's never going to be that inaccurate. All the ens look roughly around the same as the op as well. 

Edited by PerfectStorm
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7 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Nigh impossible. The adjustment would need to be at least 150-200 miles; at 48hr range, it's never going to be that inaccurate. All the ens look roughly around the same as the op as well. 

Not quite impossible   the Arome shows the snow line getting into the midlands and South Wales     although only transient  

image.thumb.png.5e3611f5ea3489ab21dab5876528c7f5.png

Edited by weirpig
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10 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

The low pressure over us on Thursday is still very interesting,just a small movement south will bring more 

of England on to the cold side of the low with snow possibly from Northern England pushing into north midlands.

Not impossible,yes it might not happen but there is still a chance.

I doubt it as the warm front ahead of the low would have introduced warmer air leaving any chance of snowfall exclusively to the high ground to the North of the low and warm front.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Typical of this winter nothing is ever straightforward!

The current MJO saga is turning into another drama . A further update has been issued .

Can’t link but if you type in NCEP global hazards outlook in your search engine . That takes you to more about the current MJO. At the bottom of the page there’s also the live briefing archive . That has more info in a further link at the bottom .

Whether this can impact the NH pattern of course is another matter given the super charged PV however we’d still much rather see the GEFS forecast verify and NCEP seem to be keeping an open mind .

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Can we possibly get some side by side models of last weekends storm compared to this weekends storm (as it currently stands) ?

14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

GFS more amplified 120>

18z v's 12z

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.930f02198bf3e681c48b279e3de78f28.pnggfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.e36e850ea737df629a4f31f0a836be55.png


Really, it looks very powerful,, and I can't see it being treated any less of a threat than the last storm, ~ infact i'd be wanting upgraded warnings, the ground must be absolutely saturated .. and potential partially weakened ground won't hesitate to give way what ever it's holding.

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With a record breaking strong PolarVortex locking in those mild westerlies at several times in one winter its little wonder other more favourable background signals weren't able to rescue the winter and bring in some Easterlies. It's ironic the only real cold spell other than those early December frosts has come from a West to Northwesterly wind flow the last couple of days. Weve had no Easterlies all winter. If theres one factor that may support a change in this it's the MJO possibly going into a favourable phase for blocking- but whether it can override the record strong polar vortex expected to dominate the arctic once more remains to be seen as already mentioned. The ECM and GEM models aren't so favourable if I'm reading them correctly still inly managing lower amplitude/ lesser phases however the CFS and to a slightly lesser extent the GFS see phases 8 and 7 respectively at a fairly decent amplitude on current forecasts, during the last few days of February which could promote some sort of ridging/ blocking in the Atlantic and finally put an end to this horrific Westerly domination from prolonged +NAO and +AO phases. The JMA model appears to be the middle ground with a phase 6 favoured which could atleast bring slightly drier calmer conditions perhaps?. Let's see which models forecast the MJO right in a few days time20200211_221947.thumb.jpg.985e4d49dca7ad1be13cc1f5310ec354.jpg...

20200211_222031.jpg

20200211_221925.jpg

20200211_222004.jpg

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16 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

Can we possibly get some side by side models of last weekends storm compared to this weekends storm (as it currently stands) ?


Really, it looks very powerful,, and I can't see it being treated any less of a threat than the last storm, ~ infact i'd be wanting upgraded warnings, the ground must be absolutely saturated .. and potential partially weakened ground won't hesitate to give way what ever it's holding.

Yes

here 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Archives NCEP de 1851 à maintenant

last Sunday evening v's this Sunday at 120

gfsnh-2020020912-0-6.thumb.png.639e55a4a7cf3c4238606a1eeb951153.pnggfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.54a298fd797783192de22cf77f14d66e.png

it looks similar to me in terms of wind but there is amplification on the latest run in the Atlantic,could this be a better setup down the line,watch this space.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes

here 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Archives NCEP de 1851 à maintenant

last Sunday evening v's this Sunday at 120

gfsnh-2020020912-0-6.thumb.png.639e55a4a7cf3c4238606a1eeb951153.pnggfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.54a298fd797783192de22cf77f14d66e.png

it looks similar to me in terms of wind but there is amplification on the latest run in the Atlantic,could this be a better setup down the line,watch this space.

wow if we were only had view of the low pressures from each date you could surely guess they were the same storm on different runs 

Thanks for posting this !! ? Much appreciated 

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

PV displaced over to the Siberian side on this run

gfsnh-0-330.thumb.png.b05c2167f6b8b2f28f70a7084d2c12ba.png

make your mind up gfs.

its like the outcome of this strato-position (we had at the start of febr) to end of febr on the 500Hpa charts

image.png

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