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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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1 hour ago, Always a red said:

Wow

Everyone really has given up on our so called winter now, hardly a post on the model output in 2 days!!

 

 

Winter is over buddy - ext EPS suggest some Springlike warmth.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Winter is over buddy - ext EPS suggest some Springlike warmth.

The next few days looking increasingly like the last chance to see any wintry potential before February is out.

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27 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

12z Ecm and the Azores high looking primed to rid us of this turbulent spell following the upcoming weekend gales. In fact, all looks very springlike indeed days 9 and 10 

Spring like!! It still looks on the chilly side to me out to day 10, even the mean is still below 0c...yes it hardly severe Winter conditions, but still some opportunities to get something a tad wintry at times out to day 10.

ECM1-168.gif

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ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-168.gif

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

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11 minutes ago, Don said:

The next few days looking increasingly like the last chance to see any wintry potential before February is out.

Sadly no. There isn’t one shred of anything to pin your hopes on at the moment. Literally every indicator is the polar opposite to what you want for UK cold. Record date PV strength and cold too. It’s a write off.

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14 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Get me out of here I'm Coming to live with you 

I got a spare bedroom and looking for a lodger as it goes, but don't expect anything more exciting weatherwise around this way.?

GFS 18z control looking pretty good.

Ens for central England there, guess there's a chance of things turning a lot colder as winter proper come to a close, typical.

 

graphe_ens3.gif

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I think in our psych we have written off February and most of us the rest of the early 2020 for much in the way of sustained cold. So maybe a dry settled run like the 0z is not a bad thing; from D7-D16 UK HP:

anim_buw2.gifensplume_full.thumb.gif.c7ab35eb1bba1f03985413c9db032a89.gif

Possibly the model picking up the MJO signal^^^ with a quicker response than we would expect? Or just a rogue run? Then again ECM also at D7 bringing in the UK HP and at D10:

ECM1-240.thumb.gif.6923471bab7cfedbe34cd922503ec15c.gif D16 mean GEFS: gens-21-1-384.thumb.png.7cd8aae2bf2632cf95086aa90ce7a282.png

No SW'ly zephyrs, more a cool/cold high, for the early part at least. The GEFS agree, mean^^^. That takes us to the end of February...

 

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00z Ecm and the recurring theme of building heights to the south definitely gathering momentum. As recently highlighted by others I wouldn’t be in the least surprised to see a rerun of last February’s unseasonal warmth should these charts come any way  close to verifying, post day 10 especially showing potential. 

78342114-7720-41A7-BC46-A6C8499F6BB5.jpeg

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31196A62-090B-41C2-A76F-2DBBCFE9576C.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Paul said:

Dry, settled run?! Its anything but dry and settled until at least 168 hours on all of the main models this morning.

...I did append D7-D16! Of course it is not a dry and settled run up to D6-7!!!

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

...I did append D7-D16! Of course it is not a dry and settled run up to D6-7!!!

Just seems odd to characterise a run based on the part of it which is furthest away, least certain etc etc. 

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12 minutes ago, Paul said:

Just seems odd to characterise a run based on the part of it which is furthest away, least certain etc etc. 

The next 7-days are pretty much nailed, we can regurgitate that it will be windy and rain and maybe some snow to the favoured or we can move on and look what FI offers, which is my main modus operandi. I should add the usual caveats as some people take offence at me posting what the models say after D7? Is it banned, looking at after D7? That would be strange, as the GFS nailed the current pattern well into FI?

Edited by IDO
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6 minutes ago, IDO said:

The next 7-days are pretty much nailed, we can regurgitate that it will be windy and rain and maybe some snow to the favoured or we can move on and look what FI offers, which it my main modus operandi. I should add the usual caveats as some people take offence at me posting what the models say after D7? Is it banned, looking at after D7 which would be strange as the GFS nailed the current pattern well into FI?

'Trigger lows' on Day 12 are okay, IDO...??

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2 minutes ago, Paul said:

Of course it's not banned, but if you're going to say a run is 'dry and settled' when in actual fact it's nowhere even close to that for at least 7 days, then you shouldn't really be surprised when someone mentions that.

I apologise that I didn't phrase it as well as I could have, but if you read the comment it was clear that it was about post-D7, but in future to avoid such..., I will be more careful with my phrasing. 

Do you have an alternative view post-D7?

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11 minutes ago, IDO said:

Do you have an alternative view post-D7?

Yes, potentially. The ensemble means point to more of north - south or maybe northwest - southeast split at the moment, so 'dry and settled' would be more limited to those further south/southeast. There seems to be little to no support in the GEFS to suggest high pressure making it any further north than the British Isles right through to the end of the runs. So right now, I think the likeliest outcome is high pressure over Europe and perhaps also the southern half of the UK, with the slightly less likely outcome an extension of the unsettled weather for all or all but the very far south. One or two members take the ridge a bit further north, but that seems unlikely right now. 

 

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Cohen's latest strat blog suggests that the sPV will regroup and head for the Arctic so a relatively circular sPV. The GEFS mean at D16 conforms to that:

gensnh-21-1-384.thumb.png.c0efd38033961724d8434136a60d0b20.png

The ebb and flow of that quasi circular tPV will no doubt affect the latitude of the three main HP cells (Pacific, Azores and Russian). That overall pattern and the lack of tropical forcing means expectations are low ATM for the final warming and dramatic cold spillage to mid-lats.

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Picking up on the post from Paul. Looking at my usual 500 mb anomaly charts, been out of things for some time but keeping an eye on them when possible. The EC-GFS do seem to show some degree of height rises across the Atlantic into Europe. The NOAA output last evening did not, so as far as guidance from the 500 mb charts then best to wait a day or two in my view. They have pretty much for a couple of weeks shown much as NOAA shows a very strong flow all across the Atlantic into the UK and Eirope.

For those looking for deep cold I cannot see anything other than, much as now, a portion of the main deep cold trough runs south into the Atlantic and over the UK. Obviously once in a while some ridhing can develop briefly but there really is no sign to me of any marked northern ridging be that NW or NE in the next 6-14 days.

Links below

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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20 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Picking up on the post from Paul. Looking at my usual 500 mb anomaly charts, been out of things for some time but keeping an eye on them when possible. The EC-GFS do seem to show some degree of height rises across the Atlantic into Europe. The NOAA output last evening did not, so as far as guidance from the 500 mb charts then best to wait a day or two in my view. They have pretty much for a couple of weeks shown much as NOAA shows a very strong flow all across the Atlantic into the UK and Eirope.

For those looking for deep cold I cannot see anything other than, much as now, a portion of the main deep cold trough runs south into the Atlantic and over the UK. Obviously once in a while some ridhing can develop briefly but there really is no sign to me of any marked northern ridging be that NW or NE in the next 6-14 days.

Links below

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

I was thinking those charts suggest something very average, higher pressure to the south, lower to the north, steady WSW flow, average unsettled. 

However, previously they did hint at a more NWerly element, which has manifest itself now in the current PM flow.  They also ruled out the rogue pressure rise over Scandinavia one or two GFS runs produced.

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29 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Thursday low pressure track still uncertain,could be the best chance of snow for England this winter and

difference of a few hundred miles will make the difference.

Whats the latest take on that low at the moment mate?need it to be as slack as possible and sliding in a favourable way!!

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Just now, shaky said:

Whats the latest take on that low at the moment mate?need it to be as slack as possible and sliding in a favourable way!!

Looks like a fairly northerly trajectory on the 6z models and a fairly rounded structure too.  Nothing doing for 99% of us.  Time to put this winter to bed and start looking at the 9 month CFS for clues about next winter.

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Snow from Thursday low looks low risk:

48-779UK.thumb.gif.1ae0e0d4939f3b9c484490a6d04a18f5.gif

The main story is rainfall totals and the south and south-west face flood risks:

5-day totals>126-777UK.thumb.gif.b8a6e2079be1f9e81e6c5ab7abc2f5a8.gif

Edited by IDO
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