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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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3 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Further north by the looks.

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Slightly!!still looks tasty for some snow in northern england!!i think its was just too far south on the 00z!!!

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56 minutes ago, topo said:

Lol, I don't think I have ever seen such an operational outlier! It goes AWOL within days.

Needless to say I expect the GFS OP to do a massive backtrack on the cold signal come the 12z.

I have to say though GFS, it's full Mark's for trying!

Andy

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16 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Lol, I don't think I have ever seen such an operational outlier! It goes AWOL within days.

Needless to say I expect the GFS OP to do a massive backtrack on the cold signal come the 12z.

I have to say though GFS, it's full Mark's for trying!

Andy

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Not an outlier for Aberdeen,so possibly a "scaling" issue for Norway!

 

That said, perhaps the Scandi high being shown on the 12z meant very localised conditions!

 

Edited by pdiddy
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The Scottish ski industry will be doing back flips if the latest gfs run verifies. Ridiculously high snow totals building up for them, metres of the stuff, lol

And gfs still keen on a big pattern change again, let's hope it's correct because the ECM run was complete garbage for cold weather fans. 

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Morning everyone :oldsmile:
So as Storm Ciara howls and roars outside, I thought I'd have a look at the latest four weekly CFS anomaly charts.

Week one from the 9th to the 15th of February basically looks low pressure dominated, and dare I say stormy?
Week two from the 16th to the 22nd of February also look westerly driven and very wet! Although easing off slightly from this coming week.

Then we come to weeks three and four...

Week three from the 23rd to the 29th of February has a complete change! High pressure moves in, and by the looks of it dragging up very mild south westerly winds! ... Could we see a repeat of last years summer in February?
And finally week four, from the 1st of March to the 7th of March, and the high pressure fest continues! But with what looks to be a more westerly air flow. Now it could be cloudy, or it could be nice and sunny... I don't know. But at the moment it looks like March is coming in like a lamb this year. 

Either way it looks like we've got two more weeks of wet and at times stormy weather, before things finally settle down... By which time I dare say most folk will have had enough of this sad excuse of a winter, and will be looking forward to a bit of spring warmth. 

As ever, this is the CFS so please take it with the usual gritter load of salt. :oldgood:

wk1.wk2_20200208.z500.png

wk3.wk4_20200208.z500.png

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1 hour ago, shaky said:

Slightly!!still looks tasty for some snow in northern england!!i think its was just too far south on the 00z!!!

Yes my area now under a warning for snow and ice ...

Not sure what the high res models make of it but 10cm plus mentioned in higher parts locally.

Think this is for monday pm and tues.

Edited by northwestsnow
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39 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Week three from the 23rd to the 29th of February has a complete change! High pressure moves in, and by the looks of it dragging up very mild south westerly winds! ... Could we see a repeat of last years summer in February?
And finally week four, from the 1st of March to the 7th of March, and the high pressure fest continues! But with what looks to be a more westerly air flow. Now it could be cloudy, or it could be nice and sunny... I don't know. But at the moment it looks like March is coming in like a lamb this year. 

Either way it looks like we've got two more weeks of wet and at times stormy weather, before things finally settle down... By which time I dare say most folk will have had enough of this sad excuse of a winter, and will be looking forward to a bit of spring warmth. 
 

A February 2019 repeat has been mooted for the end of the month for some time.  I've been hoping for some early spring cold as we've had plenty of spring warmth already during this winter!  However, I fear it's not going to happen and the mild/very mild weather will continue....... That said, this coming week looks to be interesting for some with some potentially wintry weather.

Edited by Don
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This jet stream bought BA a flight back from NY in 4 hours and 56 mins. Traveling upto 825mph. A new record for subsonic aircraft. ?

0F97F95C-4B05-4459-AF99-E55E13E9D81E.png

Edited by That ECM
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Just now, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Cant be right. Speed of sound is 767mph....no commercial aircraft can currently do anywhere near 825mph!

Ground speed vs air speed.

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For once, I can see some cold polar maritime zonality modelled within the reliable timeframe; 0-96hrs.  In the next few days some parts of the country should see some snowfall and not exclusively the northern part of the UK, although I would expect settling snow to be elevation dependent for most places; it certainly does not look a January 1984 style cold zonal spell but its certainly zonality of the polar maritime variety.  Beyond that sadly milder air looks set to return next weekend and the second half of the month still looks up for grabs.

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8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Duely noted Don, luckily i have no hair ?, I'm noticing a mass of weather warnings in force for a wide range of areas from tomorrow afternoon onwards. Wouldn't be surprised to see snow cropping up in numerous places now, obviously the higher the better, but not conclusively. Lamposts at the ready. 

Is the snow event still there on the 12 for the midlands?

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All the PM runs have for the most part reverted to the ECMs solution of a strong Euro high > The ECM has on occasion over amplified but by the same token GFS has been to southerly with the forecast

 

The net fallout > Worst case scenario a hugh SW > NE Axis bringing more unseasonal warmth all the way across N europe.

RubbisH TBH

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11 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is the snow event still there on the 12 for the midlands?

The Midlands is widely included in the snow and ice risk shaky, its still showing on the 12s,and perhaps a bit of interest during the early hours of Thursday to mate. 

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12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

All the PM runs have for the most part reverted to the ECMs solution of a strong Euro high > The ECM has on occasion over amplified but by the same token GFS has been to southerly with the forecast

 

The net fallout > Worst case scenario a hugh SW > NE Axis bringing more unseasonal warmth all the way across N europe.

RubbisH TBH

Has the gfs moved towards ecm aswell steve!!also has the wedge of heights gone now across eastern greenland!!

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19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

All the PM runs have for the most part reverted to the ECMs solution of a strong Euro high > The ECM has on occasion over amplified but by the same token GFS has been to southerly with the forecast

 

The net fallout > Worst case scenario a hugh SW > NE Axis bringing more unseasonal warmth all the way across N europe.

RubbisH TBH

Two days ago ECM was consistent with the SW>NE flow: ECE1-216.thumb.gif.fd9b473e99611e291725580de5ec3da4.gif

GFS maintaining the westerly flow:gfseu-0-216.thumb.png.d1fa14e83fb44407f76257a7212b7991.png

Contrasting upper air and I think most of us thought both were pretty sad, but preferred the GFS as at least we were not being wafted by SW'lys? Looking at the GFS 60h later (current):

gfseu-0-156.thumb.png.ebecf441bd1e53179af8968ba40e76d0.png

It is quite clear that GFS were far closer with the UK westerly and overall this is the route the models have taken. This winter sucks and getting anything cold is hard work and going forward with no tropical forcing and another sPV surge it is not looking any better. The GFS route for the SE is low-key for cold as continued flows of PM air from LP cells is never going to deliver for us, but neither would SW'lys. 

Making the best out of a non-winter is all we can do...

Edited by IDO
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2 hours ago, That ECM said:

This jet stream bought BA a flight back from NY in 4 hours and 56 mins. Traveling upto 825mph. A new record for subsonic aircraft. ?

0F97F95C-4B05-4459-AF99-E55E13E9D81E.png

Speed over ground is the mass it is flying in - jet at 200mph + aircraft speed. Basic physics.

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Indeed, as MattWolves brings about, Thursday is looking a little more interesting for a general spell of rain, sleet and snow for the Midlanders (and especially for those over the high ground of Wales). Seems to have been a trend from some models, particularly, but not exclusively, the GFS to track Thursday’s Low further South and become more disrupted. 
64C5BF01-314F-40E8-BCF1-084CB17195B1.thumb.png.2dea4e73832be48b2bdfa503a4bac4ae.png686F58BB-4F33-4EE1-BCFC-D23B0120AF55.thumb.png.c4e9f41fdebfc015ff9835d146ca1af3.png887F76AA-408A-4AD6-BE37-A4A7DBCDF53D.thumb.png.b6f2481041a4dce0992ea154498bfb14.pngD667EC9A-0FC1-48F7-A45F-2BE0E8E243E9.thumb.png.2a1668d96b1e7a1f8eed1ebe7f76e667.png40083141-6276-45C0-9FD6-E489E171791C.thumb.png.5dda4b102b2dab8926b7fe7596e74b49.png

(Netweather version of the GFS snow risk charts)

3A3C3742-923F-4D6B-B896-A0A5C35D9B09.thumb.png.270afd9dea8883ba06bc7e70a5ba855b.png0B2B595D-3198-44B1-8C2E-24D3DA2CF672.thumb.png.7e752a0195e853dbc3616b52ae8b3211.png56250B06-BAD0-4339-8168-A17A49CB064F.thumb.png.787bc17201881567b9e60cafcf8fced2.png222E5451-5C80-4B84-92B4-4AC313F2FE0D.thumb.png.4081f8bb5626bfb28430c3bbf971aae4.png

850 hPa temperatures kinda marginal, but acceptable for frontal sleet and snow. -5*C or colder 850 hPa temperatures not always required for more prolonged sleet and snow at low levels, especially also if the flow is coming up from the nearby continent. And if the precipitation is heavy.

4E8679E4-DEE6-4BD6-8E0E-BF53F2FD5C77.thumb.png.9dc2ab9dc07db1893374de47673b53ee.png2BB8F1DE-C452-4E09-A804-E92876E1257B.thumb.png.433e0f025ebed531b2d6e116fe97a1bc.pngBD89895D-EFA0-4852-BA74-EAE7AC4F9487.thumb.png.f105eac35a774e58f716be79bb9b1ee8.pngF6FA18AA-3894-47E1-A811-95317DBB85D5.thumb.png.b1913fcb87095d8da59859590aeb4b67.pngEA447A5D-9BA9-43A3-9102-E7605651EE11.thumb.png.f9db5b6f90f68423614a5ef00b5d1a89.png

Still a chance for Thursday’s Low track and position to change. But to have it slither through Southern UK would be excellent, thank you (even though the cold weather fans over Northern England and Scotland would, I imagine, want it to go further North) ?

There is certainly, though, some further wild, windy and some increasingly wintry weather to go through before Thursday’s possible rain, sleet and snow event.

Wanted to have a break from here, but the interesting charts are hard to resist, like they seem to be for some others on the thread. Stupid models, lol ?

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

All the PM runs have for the most part reverted to the ECMs solution of a strong Euro high > The ECM has on occasion over amplified but by the same token GFS has been to southerly with the forecast

 

The net fallout > Worst case scenario a hugh SW > NE Axis bringing more unseasonal warmth all the way across N europe.

RubbisH TBH

Sad to see the latest GFS op run end its hope of some kind of blocking in the range 10-15 days. Sort of knew this would happen and align the run to its much milder mean. A relentless winter jet across the North of Britain just bouncing off the strong Euro high. No amplification possible. A sad , rotten winter ebbing away like the melting of a rare snowflake.

c

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Wow its well quite in here this evening.. Perhaps everyone is getting ready to travel to the areas where snow is expected. ? Just a quick one on tonight's ECM, its a rather chilly outlook overall and just a little stretch on that vortex at day 10 squeezing into scandy! For all of you who get snow the next few days, don't be mean... Be sure to post ya pics in the regionals... ?

birmingham_ecmsd850.png

london_ecmsd850.png

aberdeen_ecmsd850.png

EDH1-240.gif

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54 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Wow its well quite in here this evening.. Perhaps everyone is getting ready to travel to the areas where snow is expected. ? Just a quick one on tonight's ECM, its a rather chilly outlook overall and just a little stretch on that vortex at day 10 squeezing into scandy! For all of you who get snow the next few days, don't be mean... Be sure to post ya pics in the regionals... ?


tbh I’d say looking at the models there’s a chance of us getting some in the midlands too, obviously it’s going to be a nowcast situation and higher ground the better but you never no

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