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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

I'm also surprised in the lack of interest being shown. Quite a bit of wintry potential on offer for next week. Yes it's not perfect but could well be all we get for the Winter!

There’ll be very little in the way of snow for South Eastern parts of England - mostly for the high ground unfortunately. Places further North and West should do better especially higher ground like the Pennines.

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EC with a glimmer of hope at the end. Can we finally break this westerly dominated winter with a decent Scandinavia high.....let’s hope so.

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2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The best charts on Ecm are always at t240 this winter!

ECM day 10 charts showing amplification should be banned. How many is that this Winter?

A couple of dozen?

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2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

There’ll be very little in the way of snow for South Eastern parts of England - mostly for the high ground unfortunately. Places further North and West should do better especially higher ground like the Pennines.

Yh they are more favoured but a number of charts show the South getting in on the action. Especially towards Wednesdsy and Thursdsy next week. So yh higher ground is favoured but not exclusively. Uppers seem conductive for snow fall next week but trying to predict thickness, PPN at this range is like give a blind man darts. Finer details wont be nailed down to Maybe Sunday. But compared to the trash of Winter so far theres lots of excitement and interest coming next week. Expect Upgrades and downgrades aplenty. ??

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10 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

Yh they are more favoured but a number of charts show the South getting in on the action. Especially towards Wednesdsy and Thursdsy next week. So yh higher ground is favoured but not exclusively. Uppers seem conductive for snow fall next week but trying to predict thickness, PPN at this range is like give a blind man darts. Finer details wont be nailed down to Maybe Sunday. But compared to the trash of Winter so far theres lots of excitement and interest coming next week. Expect Upgrades and downgrades aplenty. ??

I can’t say I’m that excited, anything South of B’ham isn’t likely to see snow.  Wrong set-up, wrong direction, uppers not cold enough.  

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17 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

Yh they are more favoured but a number of charts show the South getting in on the action. Especially towards Wednesdsy and Thursdsy next week. So yh higher ground is favoured but not exclusively. Uppers seem conductive for snow fall next week but trying to predict thickness, PPN at this range is like give a blind man darts. Finer details wont be nailed down to Maybe Sunday. But compared to the trash of Winter so far theres lots of excitement and interest coming next week. Expect Upgrades and downgrades aplenty. ??

the bar is now so low that I’m afraid charts are being over analysed .... a bit like the ec46 when anything other than a blue anomaly is shown!   No snow away from the usual suspects .... and this ten day total chart is always OTT and doesn’t allow for any melt 

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Edited by bluearmy
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The ec control heads broadly in a similar direction as the op but doesn’t amplify quite as much and the subsequent ridge doesn’t deliver in lala land. Doesn’t look to be much support from the eps judging b6 the day 10 slp output. The clusters may reveal a little more later 

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Oooh look ECM d10 has a cross polar polar flow..........sadly it's in the wrong direction...all the way from Iberia to Japan.   Not that the ECM ever overamplifies at Day 10........

You really couldn't make this cr*p up.

But it sums up the current non winter really well.

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42 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

There’ll be very little in the way of snow for South Eastern parts of England - mostly for the high ground unfortunately. Places further North and West should do better especially higher ground like the Pennines.

That is typical. So Crappy almost nauseating 

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Those expecting much snow other than from the favoured elevation and Scotland are going to need further upgrades. I would say Derbyshire south unlikely as per these chart graphics, though hills and mountains in Wales should see some:

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So for those in the south.,SW SE and Midlands maybe hail, more likely cold rain. With the wind chill should feel very seasonal though.

As for the ECM D10, wary as usual. The GEFS have a couple of members vaguely similar, but ATM an outlier solution and the GFS op seems a fair rep of the mean. A UK height anomaly looking a sensible call though how it manifests is not consistent in the GEFS yet.

As for FI the GEFS have pulled back from a weaker tPV and it looks like it will still be the boss till the end of February. Maybe a signal for heights close to the UK but ATM FI is not too instructive though no sign of HLB'ing trending.

The MJO into phase 6 to 7 won't show in the charts for another few days with average lag so the predicted post-D10 pattern is more to do with the underlying atmospheric pattern:

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If the MJO moves into phase 7 it will be nearly 4-weeks away so not sure how helpful that will be? That is assuming the underlying westerly cycle does not mute that signal and that any strat-trop coupling supersedes it as a driver. 

Saturday-Friday should be interesting at the very least weather wise with some snow around for Scotland and Wales and mountain life in England. 

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1 hour ago, Griff said:

I'm surprised that there isn't more interest here today 

gfs-1-150.png

That’s Atlantic air.  If we’re getting excited about -6 Atlantic uppers, then we really have hit a new low. Nothing doing for 90% of the population.

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16 minutes ago, Dennis said:

of a slowing Westerlies  in the strato now it could be seen late Febr .....

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Yes, with the strat-trop coupling and quick response, the strat could force changes. Looking at that 1hPa chart the twittering of a "sudden stratospheric reflection" (AKA Planetary Wave reflection?) seem quite plausible. That does look like the upcoming pattern for 4-5 days away. So if not coincidental then changes in the strat may be more of a driver than the MJO and other background trop drivers as we move forward?

Edited by IDO
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ECM 

#Wild Goose Chase !

The ECM upto its old tricks again , like the fading starlet who can’t accept no ones interested in seeing her perform anymore .

It should be probably be #Norma Desmond !

We’ve seen the ECM pull this stunt all winter . I’d of course love to see it have the right trend .

As Steve M  just posted , re the breakaway cluster I think i’ll now rename it  the Cluster of Hope!

 

Edited by nick sussex
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1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Wow, some big upgrades this morning for a change , not only has snow prospects next week improves but ECM has the snowy spell followed by a cold high which migrates to Scandinavia in FI.

Should this verify some northern areas could see several days of snow followed by frost and sunshine and certainly not the blowtorch south westerlies on previous runs.

I suspect it's a cold outlier but a real change from yesterday.

Furthermore that low at 168 only has to track a few hundred miles south to give heavy snow on its northern flank across Scotland.

Interesting week model watching this is.

Andy

Yes but through this winter so far and in many previous years, any charts that look good for getting cold air to the UK have always been shown at 240hrs and in the case of GFS, beyond, and almost always become downgraded or disappear as the timeframe gets closer.  Still a promising chart at 240hrs on the ECM is good to see, but unless it makes its way down into the reliable timeframe, that's all it is.

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