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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Potential  snow for the Low next Thursday   of course way out  but shows how it can deliver  if the low is entrenched  with a PM Flow

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1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Looking at the GFS 6z it appears to me that there is a serious downgrade on winds.

This is the highest I can find in the next week.

 

gfs-14-102.png

Mean winds never appear to be that strong, however looking at gust speeds - 60-70mph inland. 80-90mph along coasts is very intense for February. 

image.thumb.png.c26b703ae95f94647eabd93302d6505f.png

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13 minutes ago, IDO said:

I think it is the same storm development as it follows the HP cell, just a delay in the upstream pattern:

T144 comparison with the 18z from last night: 1345246433_gfseu-0-144(3).thumb.png.da241b4a668fc65099523294488c299f.png1725194493_gfseu-0-144(2).thumb.png.9b14b3d95213a89b560b2ff47abf5339.png

The Pacific is where the wave breaking and troughing needs to be resolved for the upcoming pattern next week. So it is quite possible there will be changes. For instance the delay on the 06z translates to the storm leaving the jet earlier so not blowing up and washing out the uppers, rather it is absorbed into the main vortex earlier, so a more northern tracking. This would be better for those north of Manchester for transient snow potential.

By the time it crosses the UK at higher-lat there is about a 36h delay to previous modelling:

1397605435_gfseu-0-192(4).thumb.png.3649ec55b090d83e81b35e66b385e080.png

Still an event as such.

One things for certain look out for some snow showers and it will feel jolly cold compared to the weather we have had so far!!

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Chances of a repeat of last year's February temps, anyone??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I really hope so i've had enough of this cold weather and would really like some warmth to finally come into play, but I know I have to wait until the end of feb to start to feel actual warmth, I just hope that chart verifies which most likely won't as it's a couple of weeks out ?

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1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

Mean winds never appear to be that strong, however looking at gust speeds - 60-70mph inland. 80-90mph along coasts is very intense for February. 

image.thumb.png.c26b703ae95f94647eabd93302d6505f.png

Yep  ^65-70MPH  is very strong for areas around here    certainly one to keep an eye on 

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18 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Plenty of showers but nothing thundery showing up on the CAPE/LI, I guess that's because the upper air is milder. Cold unstable air usually brings the thundery downpours at this time of year from off relatively mild seas

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I’m sure there could be nearer the time. ?

Rain to start in the southeast on Sunday, followed by showers, which will be frequent and heavy, with the possibility of some hail and thunderstorms. Wintry showers are likely over hills. Gales in many areas, potentially stormy in the north and northwest. (Taken from the latest Met Office outlook summary)

Give us all (snow lovers) this GFS and then a lovely warm/sunny spell end of February/start of March. ?

A30585EA-B795-47CA-98B5-F762D6373441.thumb.png.3ab340c513c3a92204f1cdcab1ef6b42.pngE82E3F6E-F682-4CE6-9DBD-B7F4B40C91B4.thumb.png.20377018aff074bc25628697133f02b7.pngA2229636-E556-4592-9E14-DF3873A202A3.thumb.png.85e65d19c6188955cbeee64317071384.png

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First storm up for Sunday, and for once, the Met Office  have named it not Met Eireann. Perhaps might get another named storm for Weds/Thurs next week. Like London buses, all come at once!

 

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14 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Potential  snow for the Low next Thursday   of course way out  but shows how it can deliver  if the low is entrenched  with a PM Flow

 

                                                                    

Yes, there isn't much mixing out between systems on the 6z which is unusual, if it did verify, you could see some very significant accumulations.

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9 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Mean winds never appear to be that strong, however looking at gust speeds - 60-70mph inland. 80-90mph along coasts is very intense for February. 

image.thumb.png.c26b703ae95f94647eabd93302d6505f.png

I think Sunday evening is the one to watch for the moment - anything beyond is merely potential but speculative - this is not to be sniffed at. Quite rare to see the entire country, right into central areas, experiencing such strong winds. Not quite a "Burns Day" storm but will be notable. If there is any late developing lows in the flow, it will only be worse - don't rule that out.

ECM is in complete agreement - actually, looking at its raw data, I'd say the ECM is 5mph higher than this. There may well be blocked roads and rail on Monday morning.

The Wednesday (Thursday?) storm looks a little less popular this morning but it hasn't disappeared - a decent cluster of ECM members still have a 100-120mph gusting storm crossing the country in the middle of next week, in varying locations.

Details won't be nailed down for some time yet, but Sunday looks highly likely to be stormy, perhaps severely so for parts of Scotland.

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41 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Looking at the GFS 6z it appears to me that there is a serious downgrade on winds.

This is the highest I can find in the next week.

 

gfs-14-102.png

Let's hope so, Stuie...the threat of hurricane-force winds does nothing (good anyway) for me, at all.??

That said, things do look like calming down a tad, later on::oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png Roll on Spring!:clapping:

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2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Chances of a repeat of last year's February temps, anyone??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

06z showing a potential ground frost and depressed daytime temps so don't hold your breath!

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59 minutes ago, shaky said:

One things for certain look out for some snow showers and it will feel jolly cold compared to the weather we have had so far!!

I would be very wary of looking at GFS precip projections mate,esp at the timeframes involved.

The 850s don't look low enough for low level snow to me, obviously things can change before next mon/tues but at this stage iam still thinking altitude of 250m minimum will be needed in the north and noth west.

Hope im wrong mind. ?

 

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12 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I thought i'd mention it, as they'll be members on here (some from the media, no doubt) that will take it literally. I can already see the headlines right now, unfortunately.

I never thought of that! Good grief no wonder some of the tabloids show snowmaggedon weather stories, they must be viewing my precipitation charts. ? I'm a novice guys, and hold the front pages, the GFS does tend to get overly excited with snow charts, I only show them, cause I to get overly excited to. ? Seriously though batten down for some stormy conditions this weekend, there will also be a risk of snow in the flow next week!! ? Where and when will be subject to many upgrades and downgrades I would imagine... ?

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06_120_preciptype.png

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06_144_preciptype.png

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Unsure if this has been mentioned earlier on in the thread, but the 00Z GEM going for a shallow Low tracking Eastwards through Southern UK early next week.

7E022EA8-B728-49C6-83BF-303BFAE11CA3.thumb.png.484e4ee198c898332e5c0c62f391503c.pngA2EA46ED-5DA5-4D5C-859C-44AA8A294E46.thumb.png.f909fdf1e1f5ae1e732294267d470781.png2A418EF2-01E7-44AE-A7D3-01A1BFBB78E1.thumb.png.93771f63e343a15d1c7c57d687200aea.png4EFD3A5C-CDA6-4E1D-BD69-255F57D92AC9.thumb.png.5c5d8c149870a687d7d20874ab86d26b.pngF3BCB28B-2AD0-4C64-837B-F68FCA85917C.thumb.png.cab7211095d03b750edfe10355fb17a0.png8A3E529E-8F2E-4092-8912-D6E96E4F3B4B.thumb.png.3055c9b14bb013f6a6035ca212a3b3df.png

While the 850 hPa temperatures are marginal, it could bring a surprise bit of sleet and snow to those on the Northern flank of the Low. Especially on the high ground. Possibly around Central Midlands up towards Northern England. 

GEM snow depths for that day (next Tuesday)

029A2E82-7B29-4E8F-945C-EAE5B9336D74.thumb.png.c5d31b1d146e49ae2d0f3bc6916f316c.pngB9DC827A-5B38-405C-AABB-C88CB1131E79.thumb.png.90d9a1508a1deaaed20b621a0cc7eccd.png

Not to be taken too seriously as could change again, although a shallower, less stormy, feature has the possibility to deliver more in the way of wintry weather for more areas of the UK. As longs, also, that these shallow secondary features have a reasonable amount of cold air to run into, otherwise likely to be just snowy events for the hills only. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I would be very wary of looking at GFS precip projections mate,esp at the timeframes involved.

The 850s don't look low enough for low level snow to me, obviously things can change before next mon/tues but at this stage iam still thinking altitude of 250m minimum will be needed in the north and noth west.

Hope im wrong mind. ?

 

Surely -7 850 temps will be enough for snow at low.levels!!!!im aware that the gfs has this habit of making the 850 temps colder than they actually end up being in the end but there is so much cold air to the northwest that it wouldnt surprise me if the projection for next week came off lol!no low i think means a colder flow!!a deeper low will mix out the colder uppers quicker!!at the moment we are heading in the right direction!!

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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Surely -7 850 temps will be enough for snow at low.levels!!!!im aware that the gfs has this habit of making the 850 temps colder than they actually end up being in the end but there is so much cold air to the northwest that it wouldnt surprise me if the projection for next week came off lol!no low i think means a colder flow!!a deeper low will mix out the colder uppers quicker!!at the moment we are heading in the right direction!!

I have seen cold rain here at 200m with those uppers, i trust nothing when the winds are off the Atlantic.

Meto/bbc raw have sleet and rain for next mon/tues at 300m altitude locally, i know the apps are not always a good guide.

Best bet is highres models but still a bit far out for those yet.

Fingers  crossed , obviously the higher hills 400m etc are nailed on.

Edited by northwestsnow
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6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Surely -7 850 temps will be enough for snow at low.levels!!!!im aware that the gfs has this habit of making the 850 temps colder than they actually end up being in the end but there is so much cold air to the northwest that it wouldnt surprise me if the projection for next week came off lol!no low i think means a colder flow!!a deeper low will mix out the colder uppers quicker!!at the moment we are heading in the right direction!!

Wow, FOUR exclamation marks, Shaky!!  You must be excited!!  (Sorry, back to the models!)

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25 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I wont, don't worry...It's just that many folks made that very same point, last February.?

And looking at the 2m temp ensemble makes any  prediction look like wishful-thinking?:oldlaugh:

t2mBedfordshire.png

Edited by General Cluster
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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, there isn't much mixing out between systems on the 6z which is unusual, if it did verify, you could see some very significant accumulations.

This was a very surprising potent little system just 2 years ago there was cold air before with some snow then on the morning this day gave a near blizzard from the west/NW with strong drifting with 3 inches in total.

AVN_1_2018020900_1.png

Edited by Snowyowl9
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06Z ICON showing widespread inland gusts of 100-120 kph this weekend. Nothing extraordinary for coastal areas but those type of gusts could lead to some power outages and tree limbs down in the usually sheltered inland areas.

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47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I have seen cold rain here at 200m with those uppers, i trust nothing when the winds are off the Atlantic.

Meto/bbc raw have sleet and rain for next mon/tues at 300m altitude locally, i know the apps are not always a good guide.

Best bet is highres models but still a bit far out for those yet.

Fingers  crossed , obviously the higher hills 400m etc are nailed on.

I’ve also had snow falling (albeit not lying) with -4 uppersoff the Atlantic!

The freezing level will fluctuate with the passing of showers. Best recent example is 14th January 2015. Sleet and snow showers off a straight westerly.

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