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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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13 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Chances of a repeat of last year's February temps, anyone??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Yes, hints of that on the last EC46, you know the EC46 will perform well when you don't want it to, my 3c+ anomaly CET guess not looking too bad at the minute.

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1 hour ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Ok cold zonality this gave snow and drifting here from the west,didn`t look very impressive.

 

Next tuesday.

 

That was the one where we got a polar low on the Thursday night as well if i remember rightly.

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9 minutes ago, shaky said:

No low on the icon 06z!!

I think it'll be Sunday/Monday before the models finally settle on whether there'll be a major secondary low. Got a feeling it'll be back in some form on the next run...

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34 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, hints of that on the last EC46, you know the EC46 will perform well when you don't want it to, my 3c+ anomaly CET guess not looking too bad at the minute.

No thanks. U can keep it 

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

No low on the 06z gfs so far either!!big changes compared to same time yesterday on 06z!!colder northwest winds further south and east aswell across the uk so thats a positive!

It looks like its delayed, as the developing wave is still over the eastern US.

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It looks like its delayed, as the developing wave is still over the eastern US.

I think thats a seperate wave!!the one from yesterday is pretty much gone and i dont think we will be goin back to that ridiculous storm again BUT i give it till the 12z!!the wave for in regards to the storm looked like it form near florida areas but its disappeared now!

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image.thumb.png.1f1ab6c6af516cf3f49b54635288b834.png

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

I think thats a seperate wave!!the one from yesterday is pretty much gone and i dont think we will be goin back to that ridiculous storm again BUT i give it till the 12z!!the wave for in regards to the storm looked like it form near florida areas but its disappeared now!

I think you are right, I think this is now our storm...image.thumb.png.b51da7766659c3fe0edeb07b1a870315.pngimage.thumb.png.1f1ab6c6af516cf3f49b54635288b834.png

 

gfs-0-156.png

Not as developed so further south, Also colder conditions last longer 

Edited by frosty ground
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8 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

ECM model is buying into the secondary low though, as ever in these set ups, you could end up with a proper deep cyclongenis weather bomb type of low developing or something alot more shallower and nothing really that exciting. 

All that said, let's not forget how strong the winds could get from the main Atlantic low itself, severe gales still looks likely too me. 

Yes but it clearly wasn't buying into them all like the other models were showing.

I agree that it still looks windy even if the main storm doesn't happen but it will be nothing unusual and probably the usual inland 50-60mph gusts that we get most winters at some point.

Unsurprisingly more of the models have backed off the major low effecting us this morning so going exactly as I expected it to so far, with some moving the low too far south and others completely removing it.  

Edited by wimblettben
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6 minutes ago, shaky said:

I think thats a seperate wave!!the one from yesterday is pretty much gone and i dont think we will be goin back to that ridiculous storm again BUT i give it till the 12z!!the wave for in regards to the storm looked like it form near florida areas but its disappeared now!

Yh I think the Second low is dead in the water now. Also the first low is again just s tad more North. Snow at present for Midlands and South not looking good. Need to see a more southerly track on the 12z if not this will be strictly a Scottish affair and maybe the North.

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Still up in the air (if you pardon the pun) as to where that low pressure will track. GFS 06z puts it through Scotland with the strongest winds for the Wales, Midlands south. 

Potential for more widespread snow on the wraparound but rain for most from the initial front. 

image.thumb.png.6ef116f1fc155fcc9063b7190ee0c90d.png

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3 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

Yh I think the Second low is dead in the water now. Also the first low is again just s tad more North. Snow at present for Midlands and South not looking good. Need to see a more southerly track on the 12z if not this will be strictly a Scottish affair and maybe the North.

If you are comparing to the previous run then that's incorrect. Much shallower feature and about 100 miles further south. Just realised you meant the Sunday low - ignore me. 

image.thumb.png.17750b8f196a8286850a39101d698fdd.pngimage.thumb.png.d8b034e9834c94ea9e6991a761c5b480.png

Edited by PerfectStorm
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4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

First gale/severe gale event Saturday night/Sunday covering a huge area of the UK/Ireland. (Hence the early Met Office warnings that are out for this weekend)

D7AB8A58-F5B4-46D8-A38B-AAA225746D61.thumb.png.0f476b01f7c65204ebfeb9f192811fc6.pngCEACEB51-8DBC-40E7-A77B-F223C7061120.thumb.png.674c1ee311536936617d384d0d64f7e1.png1062543E-C513-4BAF-BDCE-7626F99BAFB7.thumb.png.b2242609367ddee4dc0663c1fa011909.png3379CD0D-5197-46E0-8FF7-782C8E1FC043.thumb.png.7a314b3c248562c9dadeb2de875c646c.png314F314C-0A30-4E6E-8634-4B6F843E507A.thumb.png.fd058f1a42c1a5b883e026c2da84077b.pngB5D6BE3A-1B83-4004-8446-8C26417F3790.thumb.png.0f38f7f62038f79317bd49154420936e.png1BFA0C5E-2371-4DD6-866F-950F79D2ABD7.thumb.png.3a43c7441d58f6ee0a2e80dc72c3292a.png4E3BBFD1-25B4-45F4-A721-142F2C90A2B7.thumb.png.7f21608c64c66011807f9b73ba8a3330.png5C99717D-5F75-492E-9208-C0DAEFFA9BDE.thumb.png.76f4bf80d313eef987c19c19129c1c3c.pngFC7C6A0F-4292-40D5-B3E9-D5CEAD637FBA.thumb.png.e28db7d00cf2936b76ab1f9b1af2bf20.png

Some insane torrential downpours, thunderstorms and hail likely I would imagine along with the wind! 
 

Next Tuesday’s/Wednesday’s will it/won’t it storm can wait for now - let’s enjoy/not enjoy this first. ?

Plenty of showers but nothing thundery showing up on the CAPE/LI, I guess that's because the upper air is milder. Cold unstable air usually brings the thundery downpours at this time of year from off relatively mild seas

image.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, shaky said:

I think thats a seperate wave!!the one from yesterday is pretty much gone and i dont think we will be goin back to that ridiculous storm again BUT i give it till the 12z!!the wave for in regards to the storm looked like it form near florida areas but its disappeared now!

I think it is the same storm development as it follows the HP cell, just a delay in the upstream pattern:

T144 comparison with the 18z from last night: 1345246433_gfseu-0-144(3).thumb.png.da241b4a668fc65099523294488c299f.png1725194493_gfseu-0-144(2).thumb.png.9b14b3d95213a89b560b2ff47abf5339.png

The Pacific is where the wave breaking and troughing needs to be resolved for the upcoming pattern next week. So it is quite possible there will be changes. For instance the delay on the 06z translates to the storm leaving the jet earlier so not blowing up and washing out the uppers, rather it is absorbed into the main vortex earlier, so a more northern tracking. This would be better for those north of Manchester for transient snow potential.

By the time it crosses the UK at higher-lat there is about a 36h delay to previous modelling:

1397605435_gfseu-0-192(4).thumb.png.3649ec55b090d83e81b35e66b385e080.png

Still an event as such.

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Interesting  GFS    The low  much more on a southerly track into France    A little further north and that may give snow on its northern flank     The cold Zonal continues  with snow for wales and the west of the Uk    Lows again in Fi spawning all over the place.    Alot going on   little features could pop up giving a surprise for a few over the next few days 

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06z GFS brings interesting new slant with the low still headed for the UK Weds/Thurs next week, but will change so just for fun, cold Pm air wrapping underneath the low crossing northern England, could be cold enough to bring snow showers across the south once cold front rain clears.

GFSOPUK06_189_2.thumb.png.41831caa9c851f80cc5683f1c31f1c14.pngGFSOPUK06_189_10.thumb.png.24131ce6232f7fd29f0f20c040c2af7a.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-instant_ptype_3hr-1552000.thumb.png.99459adfc41affab9454b3c2942141d1.png

Edited by Nick F
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7 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

First gale/severe gale event Saturday night/Sunday covering a huge area of the UK/Ireland. (Hence the early Met Office warnings that are out for this weekend)

D7AB8A58-F5B4-46D8-A38B-AAA225746D61.thumb.png.0f476b01f7c65204ebfeb9f192811fc6.pngCEACEB51-8DBC-40E7-A77B-F223C7061120.thumb.png.674c1ee311536936617d384d0d64f7e1.png1062543E-C513-4BAF-BDCE-7626F99BAFB7.thumb.png.b2242609367ddee4dc0663c1fa011909.png3379CD0D-5197-46E0-8FF7-782C8E1FC043.thumb.png.7a314b3c248562c9dadeb2de875c646c.png314F314C-0A30-4E6E-8634-4B6F843E507A.thumb.png.fd058f1a42c1a5b883e026c2da84077b.pngB5D6BE3A-1B83-4004-8446-8C26417F3790.thumb.png.0f38f7f62038f79317bd49154420936e.png1BFA0C5E-2371-4DD6-866F-950F79D2ABD7.thumb.png.3a43c7441d58f6ee0a2e80dc72c3292a.png4E3BBFD1-25B4-45F4-A721-142F2C90A2B7.thumb.png.7f21608c64c66011807f9b73ba8a3330.png5C99717D-5F75-492E-9208-C0DAEFFA9BDE.thumb.png.76f4bf80d313eef987c19c19129c1c3c.pngFC7C6A0F-4292-40D5-B3E9-D5CEAD637FBA.thumb.png.e28db7d00cf2936b76ab1f9b1af2bf20.png

Some insane torrential downpours, thunderstorms and hail likely I would imagine along with the wind! 
 

Next Tuesday’s/Wednesday’s will it/won’t it storm can wait for now - let’s enjoy/not enjoy this first. ?

Apart from the downpours, hail and thunderstorms winds inland look to be only the same as what we get at least once a year there e.g 50-60mph.

Western coasts of Ireland, the Irish sea,North sea and the Channel getting the highest gusts as usual.

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