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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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Any snow probably not a huge dumping so i will refrain from saying a stonker full stop, very decent under any circumstances and a stonker for this late in season.

Based on GEFS mean that is.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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On 06/03/2020 at 21:01, Don said:

Whilst I largely agree with this, as I mentioned in my previous post, some parts experienced significant snowfalls last year without a deep cold source and it hung around for 3/4 days, so all is not lost just yet!  However, as the years tick by, snow sadly will become a rarer event for this country and winter holidays to Canada will be required for those of us who need a snow fix!

 

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just wow what an interesting outputs has been for the last few days but I will hold back on my excitement I see no mention of any deep cold from Exeter nor do they mention any snow and they do look at models like the ECMWF. I wonder if we might just might get a repeat of March 2013 who knows what ever the weather guys keep safe and look after each other these are certainly dark times what a strange year this is turning out to be again keep safe everyone and follow the advice being given out by the pros. ☺️

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3 hours ago, syed2878 said:

 I wonder if we might just might get a repeat of March 2013 who knows what ever the weather guys keep safe and look after each other these are certainly dark times what a strange year this is turning out to be again keep safe everyone and follow the advice being given out by the pros. ☺️

March 2013 had massive northerly blocking, this is why the last two weeks of March 2013 were unusually cold

NOAA_2_2013032418_1.png

 

GFSOPNH00_3_1.png

Still no decent northerly blocking there in current charts 

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15 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

March 2013 had massive northerly blocking, this is why the last two weeks of March 2013 were unusually cold

Still no decent northerly blocking there in current charts 

Hang on a minute.............

image.thumb.png.a73d3f99168dbd2edcf8f3775eef9bce.png

Here comes the Dec 90 redux.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hang on a minute.............

image.thumb.png.a73d3f99168dbd2edcf8f3775eef9bce.png

That looks like it will form a block to the Atlantic and draw down cold.... Do I see that right,? 

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6 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

That looks like it will form a block to the Atlantic and draw down cold.... Do I see that right,? 

Yes.

image.thumb.png.64085a610d1d97937ebd361780b07545.png

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7 minutes ago, Griff said:

Is that a snow maker

Yes some very heavy showers breaking out quite widely, a lot in Scotland but  even in Central England at this time of year but because of the time of year, the snow wouldn't take long to melt so ideally you want some sort of a wave to form on the boundary of airmasses and then that would give potential for a few hours of very heavy snow on the Northern flank

 

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes some very heavy showers breaking out quite widely, a lot in Scotland but  even in Central England at this time of year but because of the time of year, the snow wouldn't take long to melt so ideally you want some sort of a wave to form on the boundary of airmasses and then that would give potential for a few hours of very heavy snow on the Northern flank

 

Feb how is it looking between 120 and 168 hours on gfs and ecm!!still looking good for a cold north essterly or has the high toppled too far east as usual?

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Feb how is it looking between 120 and 168 hours on gfs and ecm!!still looking good for a cold north essterly or has the high toppled too far east as usual?

A big streamer setting up for you on the precipitation charts.

image.thumb.png.4d324be9ea1ecf3adb59a9b478a9f372.png

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“As the days grow longer the cold grows stronger” certainly true of the ECM this morning.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A big streamer setting up for you on the precipitation charts.

image.thumb.png.4d324be9ea1ecf3adb59a9b478a9f372.png

Just took a look at ukmo and its pushed everything south and east!!even the ecm has slightly!!as you say for me the only hope is gfs sticks to its guns!!i guess the good thing is it will be much drier!!

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image.thumb.png.e30da17eae06b1901ad1416305096c1e.pngimage.thumb.png.da7171cc235647ac833fc2bc697cd579.png

Yikes. That's a monumental Greenland block on the 00z ECM. If people want to see a proper height rise, then that's the chart to look at. None of this fake high malarky, this is a bona fide true Greenland high. Snow incoming! Bit of an outlier on the ensembles, but I've seen worse.

image.thumb.png.73281664219bf34a0f16904394d8ea35.pngimage.thumb.png.d120b1b8505f933531f15e5cd2163c67.pngimage.thumb.png.41f410ff40bc84a2e2ea96ab7ac36588.png
 

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28 minutes ago, shaky said:

Just took a look at ukmo and its pushed everything south and east!!even the ecm has slightly!!as you say for me the only hope is gfs sticks to its guns!!i guess the good thing is it will be much drier!!

UKMO

 

UE120-21.gif

UE120-7.gif

UE144-21.gif

UE144-7.gif

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4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Yes please, Mr God!:yahoo:

 

My inner snow-freak has reawakened!:oldgood:

 

39 minutes ago, shaky said:

Just took a look at ukmo and its pushed everything south and east!!even the ecm has slightly!!as you say for me the only hope is gfs sticks to its guns!!i guess the good thing is it will be much drier!!

The ECM does redeem itself late on and does have some ensemble support.

image.thumb.png.9a2e0a84cee25225af9934a7200e6626.png

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21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

The ECM does redeem itself late on and does have some ensemble support.

image.thumb.png.9a2e0a84cee25225af9934a7200e6626.png

What does seem interesting is the ecm seems an outlier in terms of pressure days 7 to 9!so we could have that more easterly flow back on the 12zs!!

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16 minutes ago, shaky said:

What does seem interesting is the ecm seems an outlier in terms of pressure days 7 to 9!so we could have that more easterly flow back on the 12zs!!

The mean is colder than the op for that time frame too ?

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F4AA5B28-D28D-441A-8DAF-46299597EE58.png

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Will this bring Mr Murr back.

image.thumb.png.8933875eede6f120d6116c3947257e85.png

Brilliant for a washer streamer as well i think!!very cold at 126 hours!whats the 850 temps looking like mate!!looks better than ukmo at the same time thats for sure!

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Brilliant for a washer streamer as well i think!!very cold at 126 hours!whats the 850 temps looking like mate!!looks better than ukmo at the same time thats for sure!

image.thumb.png.93d73bcf41c941813bada5a50a176b1a.png

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.93d73bcf41c941813bada5a50a176b1a.png

Such a beauty to look at!!its a plume of cold air travelling around the high from scandi and a direct hit for us!looking for upgrades on 12z!!

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