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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Yes models appear useless when it’s not the norm with westerly winds .High pressure over Scandinavia seems to cause them all sorts of problems,the op was one of the mildest runs after it bought in the initial Easterly.

    So still we don’t know hold cold or not it will become yet.

    And if you look at Northern Italy 06z is a cold outlier, so it's almost certainly got the cold too far south.

    graphe_ens3.gif

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    There’s certainly some unseasonably wintry potential on the GEFS 6z which is just outside the reliable timeframe, this is an interesting period of model watching for coldies for sure, even if it ultimately amounts to nothing.

    05CBA2D6-0C30-4DAB-9C7E-8E65343A715E.thumb.png.e14bc3c19f520d9023e440ce55d87cbc.png16B9640E-3C50-46CE-885A-EFEFF15F67F1.thumb.png.b4fb420ec8e4508734d78198d44b08d1.pngD72C6AC5-4F3F-490A-84CD-AEF7881DDED7.thumb.png.da002cafb131a103c1c4e101384fc0f0.png391ED0BB-33BB-4AC1-910F-A80A4952D70D.thumb.png.0591749016cfaf1c7fb1de6ba491d139.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Must admit, looking at the models again, it will certainly be cool to have a more settled spell to help take away some of the depression and gloom some of us have been having. And hopefully the type of settled spell to make it a big obstacle for that virus to carry on surviving!

    Clearly, a chillier spell that includes wintry weather still can’t be ruled out, especially for the South of the UK. But be nice anyway to see a bit of a change. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Many Ensembles pushing that cold wave west - which would bring increased snow threat-

    PTB 1 looking very similar to UKMO 144 moves to this

    16FC3DC7-C344-4264-9B99-E3A29DE2A973.thumb.png.6e42abc7b4d809519646b35febee0186.png4FAFB9A4-497F-4217-A48E-D63C5D0222FE.thumb.png.a5e11bb5da3642fc06051a647f5ddf6b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Many Ensembles pushing that cold wave west - which would bring increased snow threat-

    PTB 1 looking very similar to UKMO 144 moves to this

    16FC3DC7-C344-4264-9B99-E3A29DE2A973.thumb.png.6e42abc7b4d809519646b35febee0186.png4FAFB9A4-497F-4217-A48E-D63C5D0222FE.thumb.png.a5e11bb5da3642fc06051a647f5ddf6b.png

    Will be interesting to see how it turns out Steve (from a virus POV too) but the GEFS have been showing that cold bias and GEM ensembles have backed off the easterly (they never really showed it strongly apart from that run I posted a few days ago) 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL

    Although we loose the cold feed pretty quickly on the GFS 12z Operational one gets the feeling that we are going to see frequent swings back to cold although predominantly settled over the coming weeks as the PV breaks up. Its been a wretched winter season and I have been motivated to post at all given the rubbish served up since last December. Fair play to Crewe C and those others who called it very early on. Hopefully we can get to see some drier and colder weather ( relative to the seasonal average) with a little bit of snow before the chance is gone until next November.

    I do remember the Spring of 1975 very well and it would be great if we got to witness a repeat this year although that probably asking a bit too much(I was living in Surrey at the time and there was plenty of snow in the outer London suburbs to enjoy) and Fulham definitely wont be going to the FA Cup final like we did that year ( perhaps a play off final though if the season ever gets finished !)

    Stay safe and well everyone.

     

     

    GFS - 15.03.2020 - 12z.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Gfs op another mild run again from the pack, looks like it's still clueless as plenty of colder options on the table still. 

    Over to ecm to attempt to sort this mess out and ukmo at t144 looked suspect to me as well. Shame not more are posting, helps take your mind off the major story ?

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    ECM at 144 about 10-11 degrees warmer than UKMO at the same time for London. 

    Worst of the bunch again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ECM at 144 about 10-11 degrees warmer than UKMO at the same time for London. 

    Worst of the bunch again.

    It’s hilarious....by 192 it’s back to a SW flow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    All bets are off where the ECM operational sits in the ensemble pack due around 7. 51 tonight. 

    Ridiculous diffence between it and the other two main weather models. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

    All bets are off where the ECM operational sits in the ensemble pack due around 7. 51 tonight. 

    Ridiculous diffence between it and the other two main weather models. 

    Massive mild outlier.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Massive mild outlier.

    That would make it the 4th mild outlier for the ECM on the trot, according to my reckoning.?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow or Heat
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
    14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Massive mild outlier.

    Many times we have seen that the milder outlier wins out. So, apart from cold deluge, nothing else should be expected. Not great for the virus point of view either.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

    Gfs op another mild run again from the pack, looks like it's still clueless as plenty of colder options on the table still. 

    Over to ecm to attempt to sort this mess out and ukmo at t144 looked suspect to me as well. Shame not more are posting, helps take your mind off the major story ?

    I always get carried away by the operational, and usually let others query its status, thanks for the tip off ?

    t850London.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    We'll find out in the morning how good the UKMO is..

    Hopefully it's right because it's the only model that looks like producing a bit of snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well a quick comparison of the last two GFS runs, 18z at T156 and 12z at T162, 18z first

    image.thumb.jpg.1ba6b44112b64f7910c0edeec7b150fd.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.45c83683e7741d6372288938059606e1.jpg

    Big difference, 18z has link up with the Azores while,the previous run does not.

    So I think the weight of evidence is for no easterly - why doesn't that surprise me?  

    One thing that does surprise me though,  is toilet paper!  What is this about?  I can't get my head round it, and I can't get it round my head either, because that would be a total waste of what society has decided is the most important commodity in the here and now.  Folks, we have to get a grip!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well a quick comparison of the last two GFS runs, 18z at T156 and 12z at T162, 18z first

    image.thumb.jpg.1ba6b44112b64f7910c0edeec7b150fd.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.45c83683e7741d6372288938059606e1.jpg

    Big difference, 18z has link up with the Azores while,the previous run does not.

    So I think the weight of evidence is for no easterly - why doesn't that surprise me?  

    One thing that does surprise me though,  is toilet paper!  What is this about?  I can't get my head round it, and I can't get it round my head either, because that would be a total waste of what society has decided is the most important commodity in the here and now.  Folks, we have to get a grip!

    What are you taking about? A lot of Scandi highs emanate from Azores ridging, Both GFS and ECM mean has easterly flow it may be brief and not that cold but an easterly is very much on.

    A561477E-46B8-422E-BD2F-655321D13246.thumb.png.656601cc2eec103e45a5526117dca35e.pngE3AA7CBC-B392-4E1C-8F1B-6B3516A247A6.thumb.gif.37b5f866af84b95ce143cb84d0c9cc93.gif

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    What are you taking about? A lot of Scandi highs emanate from Azores ridging, Both GFS and ECM mean has easterly flow it may be brief and not that cold but an easterly is very much on.

    A561477E-46B8-422E-BD2F-655321D13246.thumb.png.656601cc2eec103e45a5526117dca35e.pngE3AA7CBC-B392-4E1C-8F1B-6B3516A247A6.thumb.gif.37b5f866af84b95ce143cb84d0c9cc93.gif

    Well, we will see.  

    I think not yet, I don't think the high is going to get far enough north. After the strat warming, then maybe.  Just my thoughts obviously. 

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    What are you taking about? A lot of Scandi highs emanate from Azores ridging, Both GFS and ECM mean has easterly flow it may be brief and not that cold but an easterly is very much on.

    A561477E-46B8-422E-BD2F-655321D13246.thumb.png.656601cc2eec103e45a5526117dca35e.pngE3AA7CBC-B392-4E1C-8F1B-6B3516A247A6.thumb.gif.37b5f866af84b95ce143cb84d0c9cc93.gif

    Yes your very much right easterly looks likely.

    but more runs needed to see where we go after this.

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