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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

UW144-7.GIF?04-17

And yet snow is possible! 

Yeah ironic - Maybe call it cold zonality!

Hoping the ECM 00z is on the mark as 216 > 240 looks good

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8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfseu-0-240.png?12

Lose one intense storm and you get another for free.

Let's get the first one sorted first!  Very interesting period upcoming...

GEM at T150:

image.thumb.jpg.842f6f8b2db28025f828a767615ee0df.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.969af48c8f433a7ffdacd59916338d61.jpg

Cold trajectory incoming on UK, troublesome low just forming later than UKMO and ICON before GFS, let's see what happens when this one hits...

Edited by Mike Poole
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3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z GEM showing very stormy conditions developing earlier than that GFS low we've been looking at.

gem-0-126_tug4.png

Looks like a small core of 160 kph gusts aimed at Blackpool.

gem-14-126_hgt1.png

There must be scope for a few of those features cropping up in the next few days around that time period.

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21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yeah ironic - Maybe call it cold zonality!

 

Nick F referred to it as "cold zonality" yesterday. The "best" spell of cold zonality was January 84, here in Derby we had 13 days when wintry precipitation was recorded.

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24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yeah ironic - Maybe call it cold zonality!

Hoping the ECM 00z is on the mark as 216 > 240 looks good

It's showing as snow for us in The south East. Is that your take On things as well Steve? 

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM weathers the storm, so to speak, and this looks very interesting at T204:

image.thumb.jpg.84a5e4cd3c7cef5f1aec77e4a73a3d49.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1157bf5765f507984335939454352349.jpg

Please be on the money this time!!!

It backs up the trend of the ECM 00hrs run , we’d need a bit more amplification upstream to help sharpen up the  trough sw of Greenland .

I think the best we could achieve given the overall set up and PV is to develop a wedge of heights to the n/ne which could see some trough disruption .

Maintaining any colder conditions would still be a struggle though but it would at least be something ! 

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41 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

UW144-7.GIF?04-17

And yet snow is possible! 

Yes - Technically a dumping is possible from any wind direction apart from a SW quadrant, its just a lot more likely from the N-E quadrant that is all - doesn't mean it can't possibly happen from other directions.

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Just as an interesting comparison regarding the possible outlook for Monday 10th February - back on Friday, the 12Z ECMWF was showing this for the 10th:

FBC5560D-B881-4171-A870-280006FD94AD.thumb.png.1ae8c83c08132a9699269ce801808a51.png

Closer UK view:

0D755E7C-4051-4A47-91A1-5403378FB262.thumb.jpeg.e68ee1462fd5428769abe2b0f5356b50.jpeg

Though using recent 12Z charts from the GFS, ICON and UKMO, the outlook for Monday is continuing to look rather similar:

GFS 12Z

55864AD6-9D70-44F6-BEE5-72E3DEE92923.thumb.png.1728f65eec0baba91e8eac778d3334de.png
 

ICON 12Z

2EBC2923-7C84-40C2-925B-BCC76EE668C4.thumb.png.088234645a438a0711b0e77c3f7ed8ab.png

12Z UKMO

236F9EB3-E9FE-4C59-8FC9-4C677DE07C66.thumb.png.ada053700d3bcb595417f835dad33a48.png
 

All 3 showing a strong Vortex over Northern and North-Western UK with a strong Westerly to North-Westerly flow over the UK. Upper heights over the UK are low on all 3 of them, especially Northern UK. Just like what Friday’s 12Z ECMWF had showed, so some pretty impressive consistency their. 

All these models also have the stretchy triangular Azores High to the South-West of the UK. I mean, to be honest, the Vortex on the 12Z UKMO is split more into two lobes and the flow is more from the West over the UK, rather than the West-North-West that Friday’s 12Z ECMWF showed. Plus, both the 12Z UKMO and the 12Z ICON have a more developed circular Low close to the Newfoundland area to the South-West of that Azores High (a bit less developed on Friday’s 12Z ECMWF run). But I think that’s just being too picky really! 

Mobile Westerly setups seem to be a stronger point for numerous models, but still quite amazed at the similarities. Although there’s no guarantee it will pan out like this for next Monday, I think there’s at least a pretty good chance of seeing some kind of strong, chilly (and likely wintry), Westerly flow like this. A for the ECMWF should next Monday happen close to what it had modelled. 

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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

12Z ECM has followed the GEM by producing a deep low at the earlier time of 120 hours. 

ECU1-120_npc7.GIF

 

Now to see if it also produces another storm around the 192 mark...

It’s got the shortwave there upstream at T120hrs hrs so disagrees with the GFS already . 

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The GEFS moving consistently post-storm towards a UK anomalous heights, quite strong for FI:

anim_ize4.gif

The euro heights killing the recurring cold from tPV reaching the UK, so cold Atlantic uppers. Need the whole pattern to move east considerably.

The storm is now lost on the mean though still far more showing than not. Though the op and control flipping to a minor cell suggests plenty of doubt about the cyclogenesis:

op storm> 198-515UK.thumb.gif.1dc1721e5bb254164b449e605ff5ac2d.gif  MJO589811972_ensplume_full(4).thumb.gif.561ee7871ce0c5f5a3c86a023865db10.gif

The difference appears to be how long the LP cell rides the jet before it is grabbed by the tPV chunk? The GFS op and control earlier than the GEM. A tricky feature at this range and maybe a few days before clarity? Also, the Pacific wave breaking is not nailed yet so this could change either main model when that is modelled correctly.

As for FI, I am assuming the GEFS are reacting to the MJO with lag time<average so that may be progressive and that is assuming the MJO signal occurs or is not muted. So the euro heights building is feasible but timing may change. At this time of year I suspect that the MJO signal would be reflected in the atmosphere. Also as I understand it if it does go into 7 with that amplitude then it may have longer term effects on the Summer; Nino rather than Nina?

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Yesterday’s MJO update suggested the large discrepancy in the forecasts was due to interference from Kelvin and Rossby waves .

They suggest the forecasts should be clearer once those waves have moved through.

The differences between the GEFS and the rest is quite unbelievable . 

Edited by nick sussex
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12Z NAVGEM, for next week, not going for the storm at all (examples at 168 and 180 hours).

F76E4F95-4C0F-42E6-AC10-1955925003B1.thumb.png.37e092c72c2aa7ac8d1726aff6954031.png

More of a shallower feature heading East into Western and Central France:
93DBB89D-9F0E-42DD-9BA9-DA48F880EABB.thumb.jpeg.80dbc604ea5ade5c7f9ed409b9fe7262.jpeg

(Though it could still be a bit blowy for them).

Edit: 12Z ECMWF saying yes to the storm at 192 hours where it directly tracks over Northern Scotland. Some of the strongest winds likely through Northern UK and down towards the South.

1605C294-FF2F-49FE-B52B-9124122EBDF4.thumb.gif.403da09a32d7d0fd23c5e3b011367fe2.gif

If you’re planning to take a trip to the moon, the rocket won’t be needed! ?

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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