Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    GFS 06z mean looks cold with wintry showers in the east.

    gens-21-1-174.png

    gens-21-0-174.png

    gens-21-2-174.png

    graphe_ens3.gif

    Edited by snowray
    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    The GEFS mean now has the -10c line into EA at 192 > thats the lowest its been.

    58FB0974-073F-497B-8F22-33866738FDAF.thumb.jpeg.53f38cd385706d8f41c2afe290f0a5f1.jpeg

    Very nice Steve, some real deep cold pools over the Arctic to tap into there, could be a very cold second half to March/early April coming up. ??

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Quite a respectable finish to today's 06Z operational run? Plenty of time for me to get the polytunnels shipshape!?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Just when you want a bit of warmth, the models start toying us with proper cold. Very unlikely to get any lying snow in the second half of March though. The ground isn’t cold, and the sun is packing a punch now.

    Will it be yet another non event? Think a UK based high is the more likely outcome, which would feel pleasant.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
    1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

    Just when you want a bit of warmth, the models start toying us with proper cold. Very unlikely to get any lying snow in the second half of March though. The ground isn’t cold, and the sun is packing a punch now.

    Will it be yet another non event? Think a UK based high is the more likely outcome, which would feel pleasant.

    Looks like typical spring days with large diurnal range. Frosty at times and sunny most of the time, I hope. Possible mist at first. Hope of crisp lying snow is just that but the odd shower....possibly. 

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
    1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

    Just when you want a bit of warmth, the models start toying us with proper cold. Very unlikely to get any lying snow in the second half of March though. The ground isn’t cold, and the sun is packing a punch now.

    Will it be yet another non event? Think a UK based high is the more likely outcome, which would feel pleasant.

    Agreed very unlikely , but it happened 7 years ago , and believe me out of the sun I had lying snow until 12 th April ??

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 hour ago, nobble said:

    Agreed very unlikely , but it happened 7 years ago , and believe me out of the sun I had lying snow until 12 th April ??

    Yes it can settle alright, it's only March, I have had snow settle in April even around here in the London suburbs quite a few times, didn't stick around for very long but was enough to got my fix!?

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Let's ponder over the ens \plots.. It's clear to see between the Aberdeen \London ens...a clear shaped clustering well below the drop line...and compare would note..an easterly \continental component. ...with with temp plots also on the downside!!!..and the South East stretching the members furthest!!!. A serious view of winter...  In spring.    

     

    #don't forget to wash ya hands!!!!spacer.png

    MT8_London_ens (15).png

    temp4 (1).png

    MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

    Edited by tight isobar
    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ICON at T144:

    image.thumb.jpg.94cf0c04bb2d34e64ae2c8aeb88b79a2.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e99315276b2393535a23fd468a731712.jpg

    So yes to the easterly on this run, uppers probably conducive of snow if anything falls from the sky, you can get away with less cold uppers than if the wind is from the northwest for example.  

    Just to post the clusters T240 and T360:

    image.thumb.jpg.fbdf0c73cb415a7b011c1dededfc550c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b8da75e3e27e8e43aadba63398f51cfb.jpg

    High pressure the theme for our vicinity, it's a question of where.  Any road, an end to the rain would be most welcome.

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Yuck! If the 12Z for next Sunday verifies, I think I'll self-isolate??

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    im looking for a retrogression of heights into northern blocking both gfs and gefs have the vortex disrupting over to Siberian side of the arctic but a cold end to march maybe into early spring.

    the easterly qbo must be falling deeper keep an eye on the nao and ao got a feeling northern blocking with be the form horse for awhile.

    but perhaps a much better summer.

    but back to the models easterly then cold getting mixed out.

    in  the longer run Canadian vortex takes a holiday.

    bringing Europe to below average with cold pooling developing.

    after the mixing out of cold in the UK theirs northwesterly or a reload from the north that could possible bring a colder northeasterly or another easterly.

    but much colder into northeastern Europe as the Canadian segment drops down into Europe.

     

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the GEFS 12z I certainly wouldn’t rule out a mini beast from the east although there is also some support for something much warmer from the south / southeast in the same range..lots of interest for sure and a more settled spell either way is the form horse.

    3EBF0616-75B3-4B4C-AFB0-A77C50EAD702.thumb.png.595def3732e53958308819f6f193c54f.pngC716A457-846A-4A67-B935-1117A4C47E18.thumb.png.59471103efe4580fdbeb485f5f69120b.png244B5D95-EB97-4F8C-BDB9-D2AD7E4AA461.thumb.png.077b67ae52a7f0268850d41745bc5c4d.pngAD211BB9-C11E-4D70-ADC4-9784B0462F81.thumb.png.5cafaee5228f9c4cbe0b3799b1fd6b96.png16809EC8-1BE3-41AC-81DA-86025BA97D5C.thumb.png.3013dcd0227a70ad667a151bf41d82ba.pngB455E766-3935-4C77-9E69-8BAD47D35C5D.thumb.png.fd3ad566b55dd0374300e7521e571e11.png32FE7B5B-3ED3-40CC-871D-7C234845F47C.thumb.png.df2321346177ce8187776ff2dcf577e7.pngEC0E6F95-AD8E-47D5-AEA1-6629871A3211.thumb.png.8e7fa76c9d396e33915f634fb52744bb.png

    spacer.pngspacer.png

     

    Edited by JON SNOW
    • Like 6
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Not back to square one-ish...Surely!?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    UKMO 12z ends with a chilly Easterly setting up. Will it be dry or enough to bring in some wintryness through the weekend?

    Screenshot_20200314-180100_Samsung Internet.jpg

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Well the deep cold Upper air has evaporated across the 06z > 12z due to some residual energy developing that low over france promoting a more ESE flow.

    Thats about the end of Winter in terms of snow risk.

    • Like 9
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ^ yes. it is looking more like UK cold high now, ECM has this T192:

    image.thumb.jpg.61b26a59a71f57c2106a82ae9f251708.jpg

    Good job there is something else to worry about, or we'd be gutted!

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
  • Weather Preferences: Summer time: 26-29 degrees and partly cloudy. Winter time: -4 to -7 and sun
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
    5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ^ yes. it is looking more like UK cold high now, ECM has this T192:

    image.thumb.jpg.61b26a59a71f57c2106a82ae9f251708.jpg

    Good job there is something else to worry about, or we'd be gutted!

    We still have an SSW coming, will hopefully have an effect later on in spring and give us many degrees below average

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    there be an easterly of sorts i still reckon its possible of cold northern blocking.

    J252-7.thumb.gif.eca42b88d1b5f8ddfd5ff11c68f23f1a.gif

    ECM0-240.thumb.gif.2463238e0bc99bb0d235728ec1bf3b07.gif

     

    the jma and ecm are in agreement .

    be interesting to see how this turns out.

    Edited by MR EXTREMES
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    If this was mid winter I think it would be a real kick in the teeth to see this big change in 850s . Not a single ECM ensemble member for London on the 00hrs went above zero at day 6 and 7 . So that’s the op and 50 members all wrong at that range .

     

    Edited by nick sussex
    • Like 9
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    6 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

    Just when you want a bit of warmth, the models start toying us with proper cold. Very unlikely to get any lying snow in the second half of March though. The ground isn’t cold, and the sun is packing a punch now.

    Will it be yet another non event? Think a UK based high is the more likely outcome, which would feel pleasant.

    My feelings exactly. So late into March all this will deliver is a bitter wind, possibly some wintry showers but little to nothing actually settling. 

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

    We still have an SSW coming, will hopefully have an effect later on in spring and give us many degrees below average

    Aye, that is true, but in the Southern UK it probably won't do anything, the northern contingent may have different views. But if we are all confined indoors by that point  it won't make a blind bit of difference.

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Anyone fancy this on day 10?

    ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.f6ab3fcf47395a99a1555d252e2a2bb6.png    h500slp.thumb.png.ab6676b1a8db45ee4f4c351e85b6b8bc.png

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    The ECMWF is just doing its bits!

    ecm500.168.png

    ecm500.192.png

    ecm500.216.png

    ecm500.240.png

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Interesting to note that the ECM was a mild outlier, it would seem to me that the cold air has been pushed too far east on the 12z runs.

    graphe_ens3.thumb.png.55c914585f711e76b6ca54a75f6747e8.png

     

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...