Model output discussion 02/02/20

[mb018538]

Lovely ECM again tonight - high ends up in a better location and cuts off the colder air. Much better than the GFS and GEM solutions.

[Man With Beard]

ECM gets the High in a very spring-like position by D8

Probably going to be into the high teens on this chart. Potential to go higher in the days after if the high holds in that position or drifts east. Could still go a bit chilly if the high pulls west or north.

It does feel as if spring is about to be sprung. A small consolation for those who won't be getting out much next week  

[legritter]

Hi gang ,yes its great that we May get some nice spring weather during the days .I am isolating so hopefully i can sit up the garden and soak up a but of sun .we all said that the charts would look a bit wintry come spring ,regards high pressure , but far important things are on the table at the moment. Great to read all your posts ,take care all ,cheers .

[Nick F]

5 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

Like the rest of the winter chase me, chase me..(never to be caught)

Normally I would be disappointed by the failure of the tease of a deep cold easterly flow reaching the UK as advertised by GFS a few days ago, but now diving across central/ eastern Europe, given the poor winter. But cold dry air appears to perhaps aid the spread of covid-19, so the prospect of warm dry sunny conditions under high pressure sèems to be a more preferable prospect, though the jury's out whether it will have much impact, warm and humid may be better, but that kind of airmass may not be available for a while. But, here's to some warm sunny weather to lift the spirits in these dark times.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Nick F

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM gets the High in a very spring-like position by D8

Probably going to be into the high teens on this chart. Potential to go higher in the days after if the high holds in that position or drifts east. Could still go a bit chilly if the high pulls west or north.

It does feel as if spring is about to be sprung. A small consolation for those who won't be getting out much next week  

Yep quite warm 12z ECM but with cool nights...18C next Tuesday who fancies that? Sorry Scotland! 

[Tim Bland]

GEM is worth a look for those hard core coldies ....

[PiscesStar]

Crap outcomes has been the name of the game this winter. And now this bloody virus to deal with after that..... 

[tight isobar]

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..but above all health....take care and be well........@big love

[danm]

I’m a big winter cold and snow fan but also a huge spring/summer warm/hot sunny weather fan, so am glad things are looking good synoptically for the latter, particularly as we enter a period of increasing social isolation. For people who will be able to escape the confines of their house to get their food shop or get some exercise, having good weather makes all the difference and lifts our spirits during this difficult time. 

[SMU]

Things finely in the balance as models still under estimate the Scandi High 

[Weather-history]

One of the GFS ensembles shows a big Arctic plunge for start of April

[mb018538]

ECM looks very spring like this morning - decent 850 temps from +2 to +8c, so some mid teens temperatures likely.

[Frosty.]

Coldies have had nothing to smile about for the last 4 months but P4 GEFS 0z made me smile...interesting to note that the GEFS 0z mean indicates high pressure pulling west towards mid Atlantic which would potentially open the door to a proper arctic outbreak, even in late March / early April it would pack a punch!

[Methuselah]

Good news: the GFS 06Z op says the early part of next week may not be too unpleasant after all?

    

Good riddance to cold easterlies? I wouldn't bet my igloo on it!

[Singularity]

A strong example of a small change in the near-term growing exponentially into a considerable one by the mid-range. 

We've often lost easterlies that way, thankfully this one was only looking dank and miserable anyway (partially a result of both snow cover deficits to our east and the North Sea being widely 0.5 to 1.0°C above average, up to 2.5°C in south).

Much to be resolved regarding how far north the polar boundary is next week and where exactly the ridges focus themselves. ECM keeps going for some ridge development right over us, to keep us mostly shielded from the N. Atlantic with some pleasantly warm-feeling days possible. This latest GFS run instead builds in a new high from the southwest on 26th after a decaying front has made its way southeast across much of the UK on 25th - not as good, but not terrible either.

[stodge]

Morning all

It looks as though there will be too much residual energy in the jet to hold a Scandinavian HP in position so it sinks south to become a mid latitude feature.

A continued lack of clarity going forward toward the end of the month. 

The PV at the 10 HPA continues to look very distressed at month end so a resurgence of northern blocking during April looks possible - again, nothing unusual in that.

A bleak start to April from the 06Z GFS OP:

[feb1991blizzard]

UNDER SHE GOES!!!!!!   -   BOOM!

[mushymanrob]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

UNDER SHE GOES!!!!!!   -   BOOM!

What a strange post....

Dull, cold, damp, a bit like today really... its the end of March not the end of January..

[Wilxy]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

UNDER SHE GOES!!!!!!   -   BOOM!

What does that mean? Where is she going?

[damianslaw]

Near term - becoming settled for all, once we lose the frontal feature draped over southern parts tomorrow, high pressure nosing in and ridging.building to the east. However, it now looks a shorter lived affair than even just a couple of days ago, as energy over the N Atlantic is expected to power through and topple heights into central europe, with an initial chilly easterly becoming a milder south easterly. Next week looks very uncertain, models not very convincing - so will leave it for now.

 

[stodge]

Evening all

What strikes me from GFS and ECM in particular is the pattern change we are seeing in the medium term as, after months of relative heights over Europe, the continent sees a broad but shallow trough take over later in the month. Indeed, some of the charts look more like May than March in that regard with heights developing over Scandinavia and further NE.

It doesn't look as though we will get an E'ly from an Scandinavian HP but from a European LP with the British Isles close to the trough. 

 

[mb018538]

4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

UNDER SHE GOES!!!!!!   -   BOOM!

That won’t do anything. It’ll just be cold, grey and about 6c. Who wants that? Nobody.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That won’t do anything. It’ll just be cold, grey and about 6c. Who wants that? Nobody.

might set the scene for a cyclonic type NE by mid april though - the only thing that can give us a tonking by then.

[Had Worse]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

might set the scene for a cyclonic type NE by mid april though - the only thing that can give us a tonking by then.

Given that air is possibly sourced of the continent, the dew points might aid in some surprises. We can only wish cant we...

[danm]

49 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That won’t do anything. It’ll just be cold, grey and about 6c. Who wants that? Nobody.

Agree. With all due respect, it will take something exceptional now to deliver what most people on here look for in terms of cold/snow. As you say, cold, dull, damp and 6c? No thanks.