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February 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Here is sunny Edmonton we are at -10.3c which is 2.7c below normal..forgot to put in January which ended up 4.9c below normal..we are now looking at 13 months in a row of below normal temps for my loc

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm) 158.6 1833  152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937 ~137. 2020 (up to 24th)

Wettest Februaries on record for England and Wales (mm) ~169 2020   158.6 1833  152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937   

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Table of entries for CET and EWP contests -- Feb 2020

-- numbers in brackets give the order of entry of last revised versions. If only one of the two forecasts is amended, the unchanged one retains its original order but that may be expressed as n.5 if it's the EWP portion.

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER ______________ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER

10.0__ 500.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (2) __________ 5.6 __ ------ __ Walsall Wood Snow (36)

 7.5 ___ 51.0 __ Shillitocet (two) (L1-2) ________ 5.6 ___ 63.5 __ Kentspur (37

 7.3 ___ 94.0 __ syed2878 (35) _______________5.6 __ ------ __ sundog (45)

 7.1 __ 135.0 __ prolongedSnowLover (62,44.5) __5.6 __ 100.0 __ Mulzy (54

 7.0 ___ 51.0 __ Blast From the Past (1) ________5.5 ___ 93.0 __ Timmytour (4) 

 6.8 ___ 58.7 __ Thundery Wintry Showers (L2-3)

 6.6 ___ 35.0 __ B87 (6) ____________________ 5.5 ___ 74.1 __ TomW (7)

 6.6 ___ 72.0 __ Don (64) ___________________ 5.5 __ ------ __ Mark Bayley (39)

 6.5 ___ 59.6 __ Feb1991Blizzard (59) _________ 5.5 ___ 72.0 __ Reef (48)

 6.4 ___ 80.0 __ Pegg24 (12) ________________ 5.4 ___ ------ __ Summer Blizzard (30

 6.4 ___ 72.0 __ Cymro (16) _________________ 5.4 ___ ------ __ damianslaw (47)

 6.4 __ 122.0 __ Robbie Garrett (43) ___________5.4 ___ 64.0 __ Norrance (52)

 6.3 ___ 88.0 __ DAVID SNOW (60) ___________ 5.3 ___ 86.0 __ snowray (46)

 6.3 __ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 (63) ___________ 5.2 ___ 86.0 __ brmbrmcar (26)

 6.3 ___ 56.0 __ coldest winter (L1-4) __________ 5.2 ___ 60.0 __ weather-history (33)

 6.2 __ 100.0 __ Igloo (8.) ___________________ 5.2 ___ 70.0 __ daniel* (42)

 6.2 __ 112.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (9) _________ 5.1 ___ 66.6 __ Dog Toffee (3)

 6.2 ___ 70.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (21) _________4.9 ___ 71.5 __ 1990-2019 average

 6.1 ___ 77.0 __ Stationary Front (44) __________ 4.9 ___ 70.4 __ Roger J Smith (31)

 6.1 ___ 67.0 __ Senior Ridge (67) _____________4.9 ___ 69.0 __ Davehsug (66)

 6.1 __ ------ __ Duncan McAlister (L1-6) ________ 4.9 ___ 70.0 __ Relativistic (L2-2)

 6.0 ___ 54.5 __ Polar Gael (11) ______________ 4.8 ___ 67.0 __ Stewfox (18)

 6.0 ___ 92.0 __ Weather26 (14) ______________ 4.8 __ 120.0 __ Godber (L1-1)

 6.0 ___ 50.0 __ The PIT (24) ________________ 4.7 ___ 94.4 __ LetItSnow! (22)

 6.0 __ 120.0 __ Dr(S)No (L3-3) ______________

 5.9 __ 101.0 __ Mr TOAD (27) _______________ 4.7 __ ------ __ Kentish Man (51)

 5.9 ___ 65.0 __ General Cluster (41) __________  4.7 ___ 71.5 __ Midlands Ice Age (55)

 5.9 ___ 75.0 __ mb018538 (49) ______________  4.6 ___ 48.0 __ virtualsphere (29)

 5.9 __ ------ __ Froze were the Days (61) _______ 4.6 ___ 58.0 __ freeze (34

 5.9 ___ 95.0 __ Mapantz (L1-5) ______________ 4.5 ___ 60.0 __ Twilight (15) 

 5.8 __ ------ __ Carl46Wrexham (19) ___________4.5 ___ 75.0 __ J10 (65)

 5.8 ___ 74.0 __ Bobd29 (25) _________________4.4 ___ 62.0 __ LottieKent (23)

 5.8 __ ------ __ dancerwithwings (38) __________ 4.4 __ 66.5 __ 1981-2010 average

 5.8 ___ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (56) _____________ 4.2 ___ 70.0 __ jonboy (50)

 5.8 ___ 71.0 __ Born From The Void (57) _______ 4.1 ___ 61.5 __ CheesepuffScott (5)

 5.8 ___ 77.0 __ February1978 (L2-1) __________ 4.0 __ ------ __ Fozfoster (32)

 5.7 ___ 88.0 __ Emmett Garland (10) __________ 3.2 ___ 65.0 __ JeffC (13)

 5.7 ___ 68.0 __ SteveB (17) _________________ 3.2 ___ 68.0 __ Neil N (20)

 5.7 __ ------ __ Man With Beard (40) ___________ 2.1 ___ 67.0 __ SLEETY (28)

 5.7 ___ 77.0 __ seaside60 (53) _______________ 

 5.7 ___ 86.0 __ Beet (58) ____________________ 

 5.7 __ ------ __ Summer Sun (L1-3) _____________

-- median of 67 on-time forecasts and six late (one day), three also two days late and one came in three days late.

-- -- -- for total 77 CET forecasts (median is average of 38th and 39th ranked)

-- -- -- 5.70 C -- 71.5 mm (63 EWP forecasts) 

=================================================

EWP forecasts in order

500 LG

135 PSL .. 122 RG .. 120 Godb^,Dr(S)No^^^ 112.8 KW .. 101 MrT .. 100 Ig, Mul

 95 MrM,map^ .. 94.4 LIS .. 94 syed .. 93 Tim .. 92 wx26 .. 88 EG,DS .. 86 brm,snow,beet

 80 pegg ... 77 SF,sea,F78^ ... 75 mb.J10 .. 74.1 TomW ... 74 bobd ... 72 cym,Reef,Don

 71.5 MIA con and 1990-2019 .. 71 BFTV .. 70.4 RJS .. 70 DRL, dan*Jon, Rel^^. 69 dave

 68 Ste, NN ... 67 stew, SLE, SR ... 66.6 DT ... 66.1 1981-2010 ... 65 Jeff, GC,

 64 Norr .. 63.5 KS .. 62 lot .. 61.5 CPS .. 60 Twi, w-h .. 59.6 Feb91 .. 58.7 TWS^^ 

 58 fre ..  56 cw^ .. 54.5 PG .. 51 BFTP, Shil^ ..  50 PIT .. 48 virt .. 35 B87 ... 

^ denotes one day late entries. ^^ two days late

55 entries on time, five more one day late, two also two days late, one is three d late,

... 63 in total ... consensus 71.5 mm. 

=========================================================

Note -- now closed to further entries (end of 3rd of February) 

 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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I suggest some of the people with those very low entries ought to revise them if they want a realistic chance of being anywhere near right, mind you i have gone all lettucing gutted myself this month albeit a more realistic entry.

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Sorry for late entry having password issues with former.

 

  Late Feb 2018 was known for the Beast from the East (one of my favourite weather events of all time.) Last year the insanely mild weather and disgustingly over 21.C record. This year....... two extremes. Not of temperature but of weather type. Mid Feb will see major fog issues in the SE with mild to even warm daytime highs in mid to high teens crashing to mid or low single figures at night and grounding a few flights. Then before March starts an horrific Low below 930mb will crash into the UK on a reinvigorated jet stream and cause chaos. Storm Desmond methinks.

 

  The upshot is slightly on the dry side (51mm) and a nauseatingly mild 7.5.C CET seeing it jockey for record breaking warmth.

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I would agree that it's unlikely to turn cold except possibly in the last week, but a really high CET may not be necessarily nailed down, as we seem to be headed for a very stormy mid-month period and sometimes that brings in wrap-around colder air masses that are not modified very much after moving so quickly from Greenland to the British Isles. This is why I went to around 5 thinking also that the last week might turn a lot colder and take us from a long stretch in the 6's down to the low 5 zone. Looks rather Darwin-like in about ten days. But sometimes the models go a bit overboard at that time frame. The really windy systems usually don't produce heavy rainfall either, just 5-10 mm amounts. So that went into my estimate as well. Have done so-so on the first two forecasts this contest year, an improvement for me. ;)

 

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4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I suggest some of the people with those very low entries ought to revise them if they want a realistic chance of being anywhere near right, mind you i have gone all lettucing gutted myself this month albeit a more realistic entry.

I do wonder if my 6.6C could be on the lean side!

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

I do wonder if my 6.6C could be on the lean side!

I think there will be a PM spell which will negate any potential summer weather like last year just enough to avoid record breaking, the spread is still wide enough to allow for an outside chance of only just above average but nothing below average or average - i just cannot see it.

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The GFS 06z mean for slap bang in the middle of the CET zone is not showing anything particularly mild after the 8th Feb, more on the cold side of things. I thing that the month will not end up that mild, probably nearer to average and could turn colder in the last week, the PV has to ease off sooner or later in Feb surely.

graphe_ens3.gif

Edited by snowray
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24 minutes ago, snowray said:

The GFS 06z mean for slap bang in the middle of the CET zone is not showing anything particularly mild after the 8th Feb, more on the cold side of things. I thing that the month will not end up that mild, probably nearer to average and could turn colder in the last week, the PV has to ease off sooner or later in Feb surely.

graphe_ens3.gif

But by the time that colder spell comes it is going to be circa D8 - 10 and the CET will be at least 6, arguably 7, with no sign of an SSW and massively strengthening sun towards the end where any SW winds could bring 15c quite widely.

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13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But by the time that colder spell comes it is going to be circa D8 - 10 and the CET will be at least 6, arguably 7, with no sign of an SSW and massively strengthening sun towards the end where any SW winds could bring 15c quite widely.

I never said that it will be a cold month feb, just that we may end up closer to average by the close of play. It all hinges on the second half of the month really, are we really going to get more record breaking warmth like last year, we shall see I guess.

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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But by the time that colder spell comes it is going to be circa D8 - 10 and the CET will be at least 6, arguably 7, with no sign of an SSW and massively strengthening sun towards the end where any SW winds could bring 15c quite widely.

The sun’s coming down strong already in the lounge where the rugby is on. Never seen a six nations rugby game cancelled because of snow ? ? ❄️ 

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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23 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The sun’s coming down strong already in the lounge where the rugby is on. Never seen a six nations rugby game cancelled because of snow ? ?❄️ 

Yes the sun is strong now, but traditionally the last week of Jan and first of Feb have produced the coldest winter period of weather, it's just that it don't happen any more.

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8 hours ago, snowray said:

I never said that it will be a cold month feb, just that we may end up closer to average by the close of play. It all hinges on the second half of the month really, are we really going to get more record breaking warmth like last year, we shall see I guess.

I'd be very surprised if we get anywhere near 21C again. If you look at mild temps in February in the past the last time we got anywhere  close to 20C was back in 2012 with 18C

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CET extremes for February (1772-2019) and 1981-2010 means

____________________________________________________________

DATE .... MAX (year) .... MIN (year) .. .. 1981-2010 avg, cum to date .... Highest and lowest running CET 

01 Feb ... 11.4 (1923) ... -6.8 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ... 11.4 (1923) ... ... ... -6.8 (1956)
02 Feb ... 11.0 (1923) ... -6.5 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ... 11.2 (1923) ... ... ... -6.6 (1956)
03 Feb ... 12.2 (2004) ... -5.4 (1841 & 1956) ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ...10.8 (1923) ... ... ... -6.2 (1956)
04 Feb ... 12.8 (2004) ... -5.0 (1912) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... 4.7.... .... ... 11.3 (2004) ... ... ... -5.0 (1956)
05 Feb ... 11.8 (2004) ... -6.3 (1830) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ... 11.4 (2004) ... ... ... -4.9 (1830)

06 Feb ... 10.3 (1866) ... -7.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 10.9 (2004) ... ... ... -5.1 (1830)
07 Feb ... 10.5 (1869) ... -7.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 10.3 (1994) ... ... ... -3.7 (1830)
08 Feb ... 11.4 (1903) ... -8.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ..... 9.6 (1994) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895)
09 Feb ... 11.4 (1831) ... -8.8 (1816)*... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.2 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895)
10 Feb ... 12.0 (1899) ... -6.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.4 (1869) ... ... ... -4.2 (1895)

11 Feb ... 11.4 (1939) ... -4.2 (1986) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 9.3 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
12 Feb ... 11.4 (1998) ... -7.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 8.9 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
13 Feb ... 12.0 (1998) ... -7.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.2 (1895)
14 Feb ... 10.2 (1794) ... -7.1 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.4 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)
15 Feb ... 11.2 (1958) ... -8.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)

16 Feb ... 10.0 (1928) ... -7.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
17 Feb ... 10.7 (1878) ... -7.1 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895)
18 Feb ... 11.7 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.6 (1869) ... ... ... -3.8 (1895)
19 Feb ... 10.6 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.4 (1869) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895)
20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.3 (1869) ... ... ... -3.4 (1895)

21 Feb ... 11.2 (2019) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.2 (1869) ... ... ... -3.2 (1895)
22 Feb ... 10.7 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1869) ... ... ... -3.0 (1855) 
23 Feb ... 11.7 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 ..... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.9 (1855) 
24 Feb ... 11.4 (1846) ... -6.7 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779) ... ... ... -2.6 (1855) 
25 Feb ... 11.0 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.6 (1779&1869) ..-2.3 (1855&1895) 

26 Feb ... 11.2 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.1 (1855&1895&1947)
27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.8 (1779) ... ... ... -2.0 (1855&1895&1947) 
28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1779) ... ... ... -1.9 (1947)

29 Feb ... 12.0 (1960) ... -2.4 (1904) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 6.9 (1872) ... ... ... -0.2 (1956)

*(1895 was -7.4 on 9th, coldest week in Feb was 6-12 Feb 1895 at --6.3).

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