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February 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Should push me up a bit after a rubbish start.

And me!

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Here is sunny Edmonton we are at -10.3c which is 2.7c below normal..forgot to put in January which ended up 4.9c below normal..we are now looking at 13 months in a row of below normal temps for my loc

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm) 158.6 1833  152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937 ~137. 2020 (up to 24th)

Wettest Februaries on record for England and Wales (mm) ~169 2020   158.6 1833  152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937   

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So it would have been the wettest February even if it wasn't a leap year. Lots of rain around again yesterday so I'm expecting a finish way above 170mm, it's impressive simply because February is not usually a very wet month. I personally have never experienced such a stormy February.

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Why is the BBC going on about 202.1mm for February and beating the 1990 record? 

1990 held 4th wettest anyway, what they on about?

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1 hour ago, snowray said:

Why is the BBC going on about 202.1mm for February and beating the 1990 record? 

1990 held 4th wettest anyway, what they on about?

Because the 202mm is the average for the whole of the UK, whilst the long term average we are looking at is only including Wales and England, hence the lower totals (as Scotland obviously tends to be wetter which helps to pull the average up).

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Excel file here - Remember there remains the issue of file name, if you download it and rename as .XLSX, the file will load correctly into Excel.

Feb 20 CET.xlsx

February 2020 Top 10

image.thumb.png.0f9fead292b34d763947958dee2f8473.png

Three players got it spot on this month.

DAVID SNOW
Quicksilver1989
coldest winter

Top 10 Overall and Seasonal result for Winter 2020

image.png

mb018538 won after leading in January.
Stationary Front was 2nd (from 5th).
The PIT was 3rd (from 7th).

Edited by J10
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1 hour ago, kold weather said:

Because the 202mm is the average for the whole of the UK, whilst the long term average we are looking at is only including Wales and England, hence the lower totals (as Scotland obviously tends to be wetter which helps to pull the average up).

I often read on here people mentioning Scottish rainfall adding to the total though, so that's wrong then. So we are looking at just England and Wales then, thanks for that info.

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At 6.3c February 2020 shares the same mean CET with February's:

1822

1868

2000

(Interestingly both 1868 and 2000 were also leap years so those 2 are a better match in terms of exact number of days than 1822.)

Just for fun. Had it only been a common year February, rather than a leap year February and the final figure for the month had been 6.5c as it had been up to the 28th (assuming this would have been the final figure then) then it would have shared the same CET with February's:

1815

1918

1995

(all of these were common years)

 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, snowray said:

I often read on here people mentioning Scottish rainfall adding to the total though, so that's wrong then. So we are looking at just England and Wales then, thanks for that info.

Yes, the contest reference point is the EWP data which you can find here:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/download.html

The usual schedule for updating the monthly values is for a provisional value to appear on the diagnostic chart (link below) on 2nd, then a more precise value in the tables linked above by the 5th.

(diagnostic chart updated daily, with one day lag)

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html

==================================================

For general info ... I already posted the update for top 20 Feb and annual contest EWP scoring a few days back, as the value passed the highest realistic forecast. Will add ranks 21 to ??? in a day or two.

The CET results will allow me to confirm the best combined forecast which I will do next. 

 

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Posted (edited)

Best combined forecast (by minimum total of ranks) goes to Kirkcaldy Weather (5th CET, 4th EWP) who edged out Robbie Garrett (8th CET, 2nd EWP). Both very good efforts, well done. Also Igloo was 4th CET and 6th EWP. Same total as RG. I think David SNOW was fourth in this combined ranking sub-contest (1st CET and 16th EWP).

Edited by Roger J Smith
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I'm top of the pile for winter then - so people need to officially listen to all of my forecasts and predictions in the model thread from now on ?

Seriously though, what a rubbish winter. We've set the bar so low that next year can't possibly be as bad!

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9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Best combined forecast (by minimum total of ranks) goes to Kirkcaldy Weather (5th CET, 4th EWP) who edged out Robbie Garrett (8th CET, 2nd EWP). Both very good efforts, well done. 

Out of interest Roger did I get in the top 10 combo?

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Posted (edited)

Short answer is that I don't track the top ten combined efforts, just any that manage a total rank of 12 or fewer from the two contests, then if none, I keep looking. There have only been a few months when it was necessary to go past that total. But look back in a few minutes, I will see if I can figure out where you ended up in that regard. It appears then that you were fourth. Igloo also had a good combination of 4th CET and 6th EWP. You were first CET and 16th EWP. I don't see anyone else who had a combined total better than that. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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11 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I'm top of the pile for winter then - so people need to officially listen to all of my forecasts and predictions in the model thread from now on ?

Seriously though, what a rubbish winter. We've set the bar so low that next year can't possibly be as bad!

I was top last winter (for the winter quarter)...and 7th this year, December did me over, I got carried away with the last minute mumblings on here of a coldish December and should have stuck to my guns and put my CET down about .0.5c.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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49 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I was top last winter (for the winter quarter)...and 7th this year, December did me over, I got carried away with the last minute mumblings on here of a coldish December and should have stuck to my guns and put my CET down about .0.5c.

If i had stuck to my first guess for December i would have had an outright win, instead a full 1 degree out which means i bet now i am in the bottom half despite my 0.2 out Feb.

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23 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

At 6.3c February 2020 shares the same mean CET with February's:

1822

1868

2000

(Interestingly both 1868 and 2000 were also leap years so those 2 are a better match in terms of exact number of days than 1822.)

Just for fun. Had it only been a common year February, rather than a leap year February and the final figure for the month had been 6.5c as it had been up to the 28th (assuming this would have been the final figure then) then it would have shared the same CET with February's:

1815

1918

1995

(all of these were common years)

 

 

 

 

 

No, had February 2020 been a common year (28 day) month, it would have had a CET of 6.34*C, but the figure of 5.1 for the 29th brought the CET to exactly 6.3*C.

 

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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February 2020 a month very similiar to November 2009 and December 2015, exceptionally wet and very mild, not in the same league as Dec 2015.  A marked north-south divide though, Scotland saw mean values not far off average.

Surprised it was as sunny as it was, we didn't have much sun at all.

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December 2015 stands out as the worst month ever because it was ridiculously mild,about as half as wet as this month 1 day with sleet/snow falling.

But this month snow settled for 8 days this here,I wonder how scotland did,yes it was a another record breaking month for rain and storms.

Hailstorms thunder we`ve had everything this month.

Edited by Snowyowl9
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_EWP Contest Standings after Feb 2020_

This is the updated contest standings, including annual contest ranks for anyone who played in February (there are about the same number of earlier month entrants so the ranks are not continuous after 51 ... up to that rank I have included anyone who was ranked but did not play February. The results for February are included down to 63rd position. I have also included anyone who missed February but played two and entered March. 

Note: The annual contest standings are also the winter seasonal final standings. Well done to Robbie Garrett, Emmett Garland, and Reef (1, 2, 3). 

(numbers in brackets after any forecaster's name in the annual contest portion below refer to months entered. No number appears if you have entered all three.

 

____ FEB 2020 EWP contest _____________________ Annual contest (after 3 months) __ and Winter Seasonal sub-contest final results

Rank __ Forecaster _________ Fcst __ Pts _______ ___ Forecasters 1-50 ____ Total points _____ Forecasters 51-end ____ Total points

_ 01 ___ Prolonged SnowLover _ 135 __ 10.0 _____[]___ Robbie Garrett ______ 26.75 _________ 51 _ weather-history ______ 9.46

_ 02 ___ Robbie Garrett _______ 122 ___ 9.84 ____[]___ Emmett Garland _____ 25.46 _________ 52 _ February 1978 (2) ____9.43

_ 03 ___ Godber1 ____________ 120 ___ 9.48^ ___[] ___ Reef ______________ 24.18 _________ 53 _ Cymro _____________9.34 

_ 04 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather ____ 112.8 __ 9.36 ____[]___ Godber1 ___________ 22.22 _________ 56 _ Igloo (2) ____________9.04

_ 05 ___ Mr TOAD ___________ 101 ___ 9.20 ____ [] ___DR(S)NO __________  21.81 _________ 57 _ Let It Snow! (2) ______9.03

_ 06 ___ Igloo _______________100 ___ 9.04 ____ [] ___Stationary Front ______21.62 _________ 58 _ shillitocet (2) ________ 8.84

_ 07 ___ DR(S)NO ___________ 120 ___ 9.00^^^__ []___mb018538 __________ 21.20 __________59 _ I remember Atl 252 (2) _8.70 

_ 08 ___ Mulzy ______________ 100 ___ 8.96 ____ []____Don _______________20.63 __________ 60 _ Pegg24 (2) _________ 8.63

_ 09 ___ Mr Maunder __________ 95 ___ 8.71 ____ []___J10 ________________ 20.41 __________ 64 _ Feb1991Blizzard ____ 8.21

_ 10 ___ Mapantz _____________ 95 ___ 8.63 ____[] ___Radiating Dendrite(2)__ 19.83 __________ 65 _ Norrance __________ 8.13

_ 11 ___ Let It Snow! __________ 94.4 __ 8.39 ____[]___Timmytour __________ 19.66 ___________ 66 _ coldest winter (2) ____8.05

_ 12 ___ syed2878 ____________94 ___ 8.23 ____ [] ___ Mr TOAD __________ 18.99 ___________ 70 _ The PIT ___________ 7.61

_ 13 ___ Timmytour ___________ 93 ___ 8.07 ____[]____Jonboy ____________ 18.94 ___________ 74 _ beet (1) ___________ 7.26

_ 14 ___ Weather26 ___________92 ___ 7.91 ____[] ___Twilight _____________18.93 ___________ 81 _ Stewfox ___________ 6.64

_ 15 ___ Emmett Garland ______ 88 ___ 7.75 ____[]___ Kentspur ____________ 18.93 ___________ 83 _ Polar Gael _________6.45

_ 16 ___ DAVID SNOW ________88 ___ 7.67 ____ []___ Midlands Ice Age _____ 18.26 ___________ 84 _ Tom W (1) _________ 5.97

_ 17 ___ brmbrmcar __________ 86 ___ 7.42 ____ []___ Relativistic __________ 18.23 ____________90 _ CheesepuffScott ____ 5.73

_ 18 ___ snowray ____________ 86 ___ 7.34 ____ []___ brmbrmcar __________ 18.23 ___________ 93 _ Diagonal Red Line ___ 5.36

_ 19 ___ beet _______________ 86 ___ 7.26 _____[]___  Dog Toffee _________ 17.54 ___________ 95 _ Carl46Wrexham (1) __ 4.99

_ 20 ___ Pegg24 ____________ 80 ___ 6.94 _____[]____ Bobd29 ___________ 17.43 ___________107 _ Senior Ridge (1) _____3.39

_ 21 ___ Stationary Front _____ 77 ___ 6.78 _____[]____ syed2878 __________ 17.34 ___________ 130 _ B87 (1) ____________0.17

_ 22 ___ seaside60 __________77 ___ 6.70 _____[]____ General Cluster _____ 16.88 ____________131 _ Lettucing Gutted ____ 0.16

_ 23 ___ February 1978 ______ 77 ___ 6.42^ ____[]____ pinball wizard (2) ____ 16.74 

_ 24 ___ mb018538 _________ 75 ___ 6.30 _____[]____ snowray ___________ 16.36 ________ Scores and rankings for consensus, normals

_ 25 ___ J10 _______________75 ___ 6.22 _____[]____ Kirkcaldy Weather ___ 16.30 ______________11 _ consensus _______ 19.72

_ 26 ___Tom W ____________ 74.1 __ 5.97 _____[]____ Weather26 _________ 16.16 _____________ 10 _ 1990-2019 _______ 20.29

_ 27 ___ bobd29 ____________ 74 ___ 5.81 _____[]___ThnderyWintryShowers _16.11 _____________ 19 _ 1981-2010 _______ 18.12

_ 28 ___ cymro _____________ 72 ___ 5.65 _____[]____davehsug ___________16.09

_ 29 ___ Reef ______________ 72 ___ 5.57 _____[]____ Born From the Void ___15.84

_ 30 ___ Don ______________72 ___ 5.49 ______[]____ Mulzy _____________ 15.77

_ 31 ___ Midlands Ice Age __ 71.5 __ 5.17 ______[]____ Mr Maunder _________ 15.32

_ 32 ___ Born From The Void _71 ___ 5.01 ______[]____ Virtualsphere ________15.23

_ 33 ___ Roger J Smith _____70.4 __ 4.84 ______[]____ Jeff C _____________  15.01

_ 34 ___ Diagonal Red Line __70 ___ 4.68 ______[]____ daniel* _____________ 14.63

_ 35 ___ daniel* ___________ 70 ___ 4.60 ______[]____ Roger J Smith _______ 14.22

_ 36 ___ Jonboy ___________ 70 ___ 4.52 ______[]____ DAVID SNOW _______14.20

_ 37 ___ Relativistic ________ 70 ___ 4.04^^ ____ []____ SteveB ____________ 13.99

_ 38 ___ davehsug _________ 69 ___ 4.04 ______[]____ Neil N _____________ 13.06

_ 39 ___ SteveB ___________ 68 ___ 3.88 ______[]____ seaside60 __________ 12.26

_ 40 ___ Neil N ____________ 68 ___ 3.80 ______[]____ stargazer (2) ________ 11.98

_ 41 ___ stewfox ___________ 67 ___ 3.55 ______[]____ Mapantz (2) _________11.32

_ 42 ___ Sleety ____________ 67 ___ 3.47 ______[]____ Sleety ______________10.89

_ 43 ___ Senior Ridge _______ 67___ 3.39 ______[]____ LottieKent __________ 10.51

_ 44 ___ Dog Toffee _________66.6 _ 3.07 ______[]____ Joneseye (2) ________ 10.24

_ 45 ___ JeffC _____________65 ___ 2.91 ______[]___ Prolonged Snowlover (1)_10.00

_ 46 ___ General Cluster ____ 65 ___ 2.83 ______[]____ cold is best (1) _______ 10.00

_ 47 ___ Norrance _________ 59 ___ 2.59 ______[]____ Blast from the Past _____ 9.59

_ 48 ___ Kentspur _________ 63.5 __ 2.43 _____ []____ appleUK123 (1) ________ 9.58

_ 49 ___ Lottiekent _________ 62 ___ 2.26 _____ []____ freeze ________________9.56

_ 50 ___ CheesepuffScott ___ 61.5 __ 2.10 _____ []____ Lewis028 _____________ 9.46

_ 51 ___ Twilight ___________ 60 ___ 1.94 ______ (annual ranks continue from top, next column >>>)

_ 52 ___ weather-history _____60 ___ 1.86 ______

_ 53 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ___ 59.6 __ 1.62 ______

_ 54 ___ freeze ____________ 58 ___ 1.30 ______

_ 55 ___ Thundery Wintry Sh _58.7 __ 1.06^^ ____

_ 56 ___ Polar Gael ________54.5 __ 0.97 ______

_ 57 ___ coldest winter ______56 ___ 0.94^ _____

_ 58 ___ Blast from the Past __51 ___ 0.81 ______

_ 59 ___ shillitocet _________ 51 ___ 0.53^ _____

_ 60 ___ The PIT __________ 50 ___ 0.49 ______

_ 61 ___ virtualsphere _______48 ___ 0.33 ______

_ 62 ___ B87 ______________35 ___ 0.17 ______

_ 63 ___ Lettucing Gutted ___500 ___ 0.00 ______________________________________________________________

^ symbols beside scores indicate number of days late (penalty is 0.2) ... duplicate entries score 0.08 less than previous entry,

otherwise the drop between scoring ranks is generally 0.16 (occasionally 0.17). 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

I have calculated the rankings for average error but only for the forecasters who entered all three contests, as errors are quite

large in February. These will appear in the excel file if I can get it to download after tweaking for the adjusted EWP amount on 5th.

The top ranking for average error also belongs to Robbie Garrett with an average error of 23.97 mm. 

______________________________________________________________

In the scoring for Feb, ^ symbol(s) indicate days late, 0.2 deductions per day.

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14 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

No, had February 2020 been a common year (28 day) month, it would have had a CET of 6.34*C, but the figure of 5.1 for the 29th brought the CET to exactly 6.3*C.

 

I stand corrected then. I assumed been as 6.5c was the rounded figure up to the 28th that would have been the final figure for the month had it ended then rather than a day later ?‍♂️

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