February 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.8C still +1.5C above normal. Rainfall up 132.3mm 220.1% of the monthly average now the 4th wettest on record.

[snowray]

I think we can still get close to the top ten wettest Febs this month. We have the extra day (29th) too of course.

 

Edited February 21, 2020 by snowray

[DAVID SNOW]

7 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Would rank 10th.

CET: 6.17C.

Sandwiched between 1795/96 (6.20C) and 1934/35 (6.13C).

Winter 1795/96 is an interesting one because 1794/95 ranks fifth-coldest and contained the coldest month on the record. Some swing from one year to the next.

Thanks for the stats.

[cheeky_monkey]

11 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

A warming trend is not happening everywhere then. This needs to taken into account.

Interestingly here only one season (summer 2018) out of the last nine have been warmer than average..there certainly have been some interesting weather patterns over North America in recent years that have produced both record warm and record cold.

[qwertyK]

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Interestingly here only one season (summer 2018) out of the last nine have been warmer than average..there certainly have been some interesting weather patterns over North America in recent years that have produced both record warm and record cold.

Yes, the arctic has  been very cold this year, with alaska the coldest in 7 years I believe? Northern India has had some extreme cold too, and intererestingly, parts of West Africa have been down to single figures at night I've found. 

However, Russia has been significantly warmer than average so arctic warming is obviously happening in some of the arctic but not all of it. 

[Weather-history]

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm)

158.6 1833 
152.7 1923
143.6 1950
143.2 1990
143.2 1977
142.1 1937
136.7 2014
132.0 1916
131.7 1900
130.0 1848
129.6 1966
129.1 1768 
124.2 1925
123.5 1915
116.0 1958
115.3 1812
115.3 1767
115.1 2002
114.9 1995
114.1 1951
114.0 1823
113.5 1776
112.1 1904
111.6 2007
~111 2020 (up to 21st Feb)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 20/02/2020 at 22:07, qwertyK said:

I've heard the complete opposite and that spring in Europe will be warmer than average. Though I have checked my forecast for where I am in the southeast and it does seem to be getting colder and some snow is forecast  for the first time this year .

I’m looking mainly at the U.K. rather than Europe though I think a Euro slug HP won’t be the main feature.  I think an easterly or NE’ly component will be present, but not a BFTE.  Higher pressure likely to want to show its hand to north of U.K. be it N, NW, NE at times.

 

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 21st

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still on 5.8C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall at 141.2mm 234.9% of the monthly average.

February for us is now the third wettest on our records.

[Weather-history]

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm)

158.6 1833 
152.7 1923
143.6 1950
143.2 1990
143.2 1977
142.1 1937
136.7 2014
132.0 1916
131.7 1900
130.0 1848
129.6 1966
129.1 1768 
124.2 1925
123.5 1915
116.0 1958
~116  2020 (up to 21st)

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.8C still +1.5C above normal. Rainfall up to 159.8mm 265.9% of the monthly average.

The record for us is 202.5mm so another 42.8mm needed to beat that. Unlikely but who knows with six days left. It's now our second wettest on record.

[qwertyK]

Final week of Feb wi be much colder than it has with snowfall in places which continues into the first few days of march. The BBC has changed their outlook for march from being mild to being chilly and wintry at times. I can imagine that march may actually be colder than February. 

[Summer Sun]

6.6c to the 22nd

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

6.6c to the 22nd

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

Should see that drop back during the final days of the month.  February will still be significantly milder than average, though.

[Snowyowl9]

Last nights heavy rainfall took a huge chunk of years out I see.

1990 was the wettest in recent years interesting,I didn`t measure rainfall that year,2014 was the wettest I`ve recorded.

Next few day,more rain monday shouldn`t be quite so much,then a cold snap drier,thursday`s low a question mark could be snow.

Edited February 23, 2020 by Snowyowl9

[snowray]

14c breached in a few places in the south today.

[qwertyK]

2 hours ago, snowray said:

14c breached in a few places in the south today.

Max? The max monthly temp for Jan according to met office was 15.5c

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 22/02/2020 at 08:07, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’m looking mainly at the U.K. rather than Europe though I think a Euro slug HP won’t be the main feature.  I think an easterly or NE’ly component will be present, but not a BFTE.  Higher pressure likely to want to show its hand to north of U.K. be it N, NW, NE at times.

 

BFTP

Models really picking up on this now.

 

BFTP 

[Weather-history]

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm)

158.6 1833 
152.7 1923
143.6 1950
143.2 1990
143.2 1977
142.1 1937
136.7 2014
132.0 1916
131.7 1900
130.0 1848
129.6 1966
129.1 1768 
124.2 1925
~124 2020 (up to 22nd) 

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 23rd

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 5.8C +1.5C above normal. A rise for today no doubt coming. Rainfall 166.1mm 276.4% of the monthly average. We are going to get close to the record by the looks of things but won't beat it.

[Weather-history]

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm)

158.6 1833 
152.7 1923
143.6 1950
143.2 1990
143.2 1977
142.1 1937
136.7 2014
132.0 1916
131.7 1900
~131 2020 (up to 23rd)

[mb018538]

I got the second half of this month wrong - I went milder and wetter than average on the basis that the first half would be mild and zonal, which would ease to something quieter and drier throug the second half of the month. If anything it has been worse! Chance of the wettest February on record?

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 24th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[snowray]

7 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm)

158.6 1833 
152.7 1923
143.6 1950
143.2 1990
143.2 1977
142.1 1937
136.7 2014
132.0 1916
131.7 1900
~131 2020 (up to 23rd)

So into the top ten, can we squeeze into the top five I wonder? 

Lots of rain around yesterday, heavy showers today, and four more days of the month to go.