Novel Coronavirus – China

[emax]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Can you explain how the Spanish flu spread globally, as I'm not sure globalisation was as wide spread as it is now? 

WW1 played quite a big part in it lol

[emax]

5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Personally I thought it was about the bad air that's now improved. 

Eh? What is?

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, emax said:

No its not true lol, I think you mean more than 3% lol

Still wouldnt call your statement alarmist at all, but it is down to perspective and peoples attitude to life.

Thanks for the correction, emax...And I also meant to say alarming, not alarmist, and that folks have good reason to be alarmed...So that was two things I did wrong!

                                    

                                               

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Can you explain how the Spanish flu spread globally, as I'm not sure globalisation was as wide spread as it is now? 

Ships carrying infected troops into Europe, from already-affected US military bases, didn't help...

Edited March 1, 2020 by General Cluster

[Snipper]

Some more general info about Spanish flu

1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

WWW.CDC.GOV

---

Everything you need to know about the flu illness, including symptoms, treatment and prevention.

 

[Blessed Weather]

28 minutes ago, emax said:

Is there an age demographic for all confirmed cases? I might of missed it somewhere in this thread, but would be interesting to see the age spread of the total cases, not just by deaths etc.

The chart I put up shows the age spread of cases in the left column and fatalities on the right, but of course that was only China. I've not seen an analysis of cases in the Rest of the World.

The BNO News website (Summer Sun posts their updates) does show the number of cases and fatalities by country and I've worked out the percentage fatality rates by Region/Country. This does highlight some significant differences by country (but a cautionary note re small sample sizes in countries where cases have only just started appearing). Here's a few example calculations based on today's data 1st March 3.10pm. It will be interesting to track this as the number of cases increases.

Region         Cases        Fatalities      Percentage
World            88,301       3,000             3.4%
China            79,824       2,870             3.6%
RoW              8,477        130                1.5%
Italy               1,694         34                  2%
Iran                978            54                 5.5%
France           130            2                   1.5%
UK                  36             0                    0%

Source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

[Ryukai]

48 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Can you explain how the Spanish flu spread globally, as I'm not sure globalisation was as wide spread as it is now? 

If I remember rightly from my history lessons years ago, I believe it originated from a pig farm in America, the guy who had the first infection was conscripted and sent to war, due to the lack of hygiene the cramped conditions and just general squalor of Trench warfare it spread rapidly through the armed forces, including to the 'other' sides via captured prisoners.  It essentially run riot and had the perfect conditions to both spread and mutate quickly into a highly virulent strain.  WW1 essentially ended more due to the 'Spanish' flu killing off the troops and leaving survivors in no condition to fight than anything else.

Once the war was declared over, the troops (who were carrying it) returned to their countries all across the globe spreading it to family and friends and who then spread it on.

Also you need to realise that this was before modern day medical practices as we know it, Surgeons were praised for how quickly they could amputate a limb (no anesthetics) than a successful surgery.  There were no vaccines, no anti-bacterial products, heck, even penicillin hadn't even been discovered yet.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Ryukai

[Summer Sun]

Spain have reported 84 new cases today

[Guest Delete Me]

Italy - 1,694 confirmed cases: 639 hospitalized, 140 in ICU, 798 in home isolation and 34 deaths.

Italy's population age distribution:

• 0-14 years: 13.6% (male 4,326,862 /female 4,136,562)
• 15-24 years: 9.61% (male 2,994,651 /female 2,984,172)
• 25-54 years: 41.82% (male 12,845,442 /female 13,183,240)
• 55-64 years: 13.29% (male 4,012,640 /female 4,261,956)
• 65 years and over: 21.69% (male 5,817,819 /female 7,683,330) (2018 est.)

Aging population with the average age of around 45

[nick sussex]

One wonders what the situation would have been like without the huge amount of cases which started in northern Italy.

Many of the reported new cases over the last week globally seem to be linked with travel to that region .

This really goes to the heart of how reliant we are on each country doing their bit and putting in place the right procedures.

Clearly something went badly wrong in northern Italy . How did the virus explode there so quickly ?

And because of that regions popularity as a tourist destination and the unfortunate timing with the school half term holidays you ended up with a perfect storm .

Edited March 1, 2020 by nick sussex

[emax]

13 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

If I remember rightly, I believe it originated from a pig farm in America, the guy who had the first infection was conscripted and sent to war, due to the lack of hygiene the cramped conditions and just general squalor of Trench warfare it spread rapidly through the armed forces, including to the 'other' sides via captured prisoners.  It essentially run riot and had the perfect conditions to both spread and mutate quickly into a highly virulent strain.  WW1 essentially ended more due to the 'Spanish' flu killing off the troops and leaving survivors in no condition to fight than anything else.

Once the war was declared over, the troops (who were carrying it) returned to their countries all across the globe spreading it to family and friends and who then spread it on.

Also you need to realise that this was before modern day medical practices as we know it, Surgeons were praised for how quickly they could amputate a limb (no anesthetics) than a successful surgery.  There were no vaccines, no anti-bacterial products, heck, even penicillin hadn't even been discovered yet.

Just for info, there's actually no definitive answer as to where it came from.

The 3 options historians go for, are British Army in France, or USA, or China.

[lottiekent]

15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Spain have reported 84 new cases today

I think that’s 84 in total, 26 new cases today.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On a personal level, I smoked my last cigarette 3 days ago. I figured I don't need my lungs incapacitated from the get go. Hopefully I can get rid of enough 'gunk' before the virus becomes widespread.

[emax]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

One wonders what the situation would have been like without the huge amount of cases which started in northern Italy.

Many of the reported new cases over the last week globally seem to be linked with travel to that region .

This really goes to the heart of how reliant we are on each country doing their bit and putting in place the right procedures.

Clearly something went badly wrong in northern Italy . How did the virus explode there so quickly ?

And because of that regions popularity as a tourist destination and the unfortunate timing with the school half term holidays you ended up with a perfect storm .

I'd read somewhere that there are quite a lot of Iranians in Northern Italy, but again, I might be wrong, as I forget where I read it. If thats true, it would explain why, but I cant find any proof lol

[Guest Delete Me]

 

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

One wonders what the situation would have been like without the huge amount of cases which started in Italy.

Many of the reported new cases over the last week globally seem to be linked with travel to that region .

This really goes to the heart of how reliant we are on each country doing their bit and putting in place the right procedures.

Clearly something went badly wrong in northern Italy . How did the virus explode there so quickly ?

And because of that regions popularity as a tourist destination and the unfortunate timing with the school half term holidays you ended up with a perfect storm .

Italy have a separate strain to what originated from Wuhan, they are currently RNA sequencing to find out more about this particular strain of SARS-CoV-2.

In terms of how the virus seemed to explode, Massimo Galli who is professor of infectious diseases at Milan University is confident that the virus has been in Italy since mid January which would see hundred if not thousands infected without knowing, ala ticking time bomb waiting to go off.

Italy banned flights into and out of Wuhan at the end of January so I would think its been brought in before the travel ban was in place.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Delete Me

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

On a personal level, I smoked my last cigarette 3 days ago. I figured I don't need my lungs incapacitated from the get go. Hopefully I can get rid of enough 'gunk' before the virus becomes widespread.

Sadly my self discipline isn’t up to much . I started vaping a few months back in an effort to get off them  with the odd cigarette and now my cigarette to vape ratio is moving in the wrong direction .

I’m also now consuming huge amounts of chocolate and seem to have switched into a why am I bothering to worry attitude when this virus is doing the rounds !

I’ll deal with the cigs and chocolate addiction when this thing hopefully blows over ! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Sadly my self discipline isn’t up to much . I started vaping a few months back in an effort to get off them  with the odd cigarette and now my cigarette to vape ratio is moving in the wrong direction .

I’m also now consuming huge amounts of chocolate and seem to have switched into a why am I bothering to worry attitude when this virus is doing the rounds !

I’ll deal with the cigs and chocolate addiction when this thing hopefully blows over ! 

I packed them in for a whole year and went on to a vape. However I decided to 'treat' myself a couple of Christmases back and ended up back smoking full time. You really have to stop completely otherwise you end up hooked again. It's so tough!

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[emax]

16 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Italy banned flights into and out of Wuhan at the end of January so I would think its been brought in before the travel ban was in place.

Thing is, this doesnt stop it completely.......you'd need to ban all international flights to make a statement like that!!

[emax]

19 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

With no official cases, that seems a bit odd. Maybe they're worried about refugees coming their way through Turkey?? 

 

**Oh, just seen 1 confirmed case, still small though, but it's officially there.

Edited March 1, 2020 by emax
update

[Snipper]

33 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

On a personal level, I smoked my last cigarette 3 days ago. I figured I don't need my lungs incapacitated from the get go. Hopefully I can get rid of enough 'gunk' before the virus becomes widespread.

I suppose you could argue that breathing through your fag it would kill any virus. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Snipper said:

I suppose you could argue that breathing through your fag it would kill any virus. 

[emax]

1 minute ago, emax said:

With no official cases, that seems a bit odd. Maybe they're worried about refugees coming their way through Turkey?? 

Oh and they border Iran, so that might explain why lol

[Snipper]

According to the Mail it says France has banned kissing. 
 

Told my wife that there might be a ban on sex next. She said that would be good. 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

According to the Mail it says France has banned kissing. 
 

Told my wife that there might be a ban on sex next. She said that would be good. 

It’s very awkward culturally to avoid kissing in France. I’m used to it anyway as being born to Cypriot parents we kiss everyone , if you don’t kiss you’re run out of the village and thought of as cold and miserable !

And in different parts of France there’s a different amount of kisses you need to do , it’s very complicated !