Novel Coronavirus – China

[nick sussex]

The problem for the susceptibility argument is you don’t have a control group .

How much susceptibility plays a role is impossible to quantify because of other factors .

 

[Gael_Force]

7 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

The why do they say 'Asians are more susceptible' ?

Not what is said .... quote " raise the possibility that Asians are more susceptible to coronavirus"

They then go on to discount the possibility.

[swebby]

20 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Time will tell I suppose.

Is there a mortality rate for this virus yet?

Not really.

2% seems to be a figure commonly used, which is a significant level for a disease.  But this is for Hubei province where the health care system has been swamped, plus the accuracy of reported cases could be a massive underestimation of true totals (if true, this is a good thing as it means mortality is over estimated by the same margin)

Where isolated cases or low number of cases are being reported mortality seems to be much lower, near that of influenza.

Quality of critical health care available likely to be the deciding factor.  Keep the case numbers under control, there is not anything to panic about for the vast majority. A massive outbreak stressing the respective hospital systems and then it may be a different story?

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Once we accept that the virus is a global pandemic (and so lift travel restrictions?) might China be more forthcoming with data? (if they are currently shielding such so as not to cause further economic damage?)

EDIT: Lebanon confirm first case from a women who had travelled from Qom in Iran;

Coronavirus live updates: Officials letting last uninfected passengers leave Diamond Princess

WWW.CBSNEWS.COM

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The quarantined cruise ship docked at Yokohama, near Tokyo, had the biggest cluster of COVID-19 cases outside China. Two passengers died.

 

Edited February 21, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[swebby]

10 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

The why do they say 'Asians are more susceptible' ?

I do understand we are 'one race' y'know but that we show 'regional differences' driven by natural selection/natural forcings and, if such 'difference' makes one population 'more susceptible', then surely that's important?

I think you may have been caught out in the unfortunate way the articles supposition is being clipped in the graphical link - "Asians are more susceptible...." 

This is what they were looking to investigate and their conclusion is that this is not the case, the closing line in the articles abstract being "These observations indicate that individuals of all races need the same level of personal protection against SARS-CoV-2."

[Gray-Wolf]

I do understand nobody is spared by a 'novel' virus swebby but if certain groups are more susceptible (age/gender/pre existing conditions?) then it is good for Healthcare professionals to be aware of such facts?

[nick sussex]

If say the virus started in the UK you’d probably get a better idea of ethnic differences.

You’d then be able to see transmission rates , and increased chances of more serious health issues across that.

The gene pool in China is much less diverse. 

It’s likely a host of environmental factors have effected transmission rates there , one can’t definitively rule out a specific inherent risk factor but it’s not been proven and remains just one of many theories .

 

Edited February 21, 2020 by nick sussex

[Spikecollie]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If say the virus started in the UK you’d probably get a better idea of ethnic differences.

You’d then be able to see transmission rates , and increased chances of more serious health issues across that.

The gene pool in China is much less diverse. 

It’s likely a host of environmental factors have effected transmission rates there , one can’t definitively rule out a specific inherent risk factor but it’s not been proven and remains just one of many theories .

 

This worries me. Not the susceptibility factor - but the racism.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I do understand nobody is spared by a 'novel' virus swebby but if certain groups are more susceptible (age/gender/pre existing conditions?) then it is good for Healthcare professionals to be aware of such facts?

Not forgetting of course that, as things currently stand, 90%+ of infections have been among Asians?

[Gray-Wolf]

1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:

This worries me. Not the susceptibility factor - but the racism.

If certain groups will use the skewed IQ testing as 'proof positive' of 'Superiority' (yes Bozo I'm looking at you!) then goodness only knows what some would make of any skew in ethnicity susceptibility to the disease (however such was seen to arise?)

[Spikecollie]

1 minute ago, Gray-Wolf said:

If certain groups will use the skewed IQ testing as 'proof positive' of 'Superiority' (yes Bozo I'm looking at you!) then goodness only knows what some would make of any skew in ethnicity susceptibility to the disease (however such was seen to arise?)

Bozo can't show up to flood devasted communities. Has he got a mask?

[Gray-Wolf]

I now refer to him a 'Fridge Magnet' and ,as such, the white goods lining the streets of flood ravaged towns would probably prove too much of a draw?

[swebby]

1 minute ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I do understand nobody is spared by a 'novel' virus swebby but if certain groups are more susceptible (age/gender/pre existing conditions?) then it is good for Healthcare professionals to be aware of such facts?

From what i am seeing, Age could be an interesting one?

My money (which i stress is nowt more than a lay persons guess) would be on environmental factors - e.g smoking, pollution, possibly dietary factors explaining many of the discrepancies. But i am also thinking that the figures may suggest a potentially very low level of susceptibility in the very young?

You've probably noticed that i'm very quick to stomp on any stuff that could be interpreted as ethnic differences playing a role.  This is primarily to stop stigmatisation of Covid-19 (think of AIDS and "gay plague") as, apart from being morally repugnant, it is also exceptionally unhelpful in peoples understanding of what they face. It is also  because ethnicity is extremely unlikely (but not impossible) to be a factor.

But while ethnicity is not likely to be an issue, as i know my biological systems as an adult white male will be near identical to an average adult asian male, or average adult aboriginal male, age is an entirely different kettle of fish.  Many biological systems switch on, off or change the level they are active during pre-puberty, during puberty and then post puberty. While i know my biology is effectively the same as any other adult, i know it can be rather different to that of a 1 year old, and 8 year old or even a 14 year old.

[Zak M]

Didn't know this 

New coronavirus may spread through poop | Live Science

WWW.LIVESCIENCE.COM

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Wash your hands after using the bathroom.

 

[Spikecollie]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Didn't know this 

New coronavirus may spread through poop | Live Science

WWW.LIVESCIENCE.COM

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Wash your hands after using the bathroom.

 

Goes without saying. Wash your hands after going. Hope you always have, always do and always will.

[swebby]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Didn't know this 

New coronavirus may spread through poop | Live Science

WWW.LIVESCIENCE.COM

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Wash your hands after using the bathroom.

 

Not unusual for viruses to spread this way, for example in bird/bat droppings, it is just that for human to human transfer, saliva/mucus from a snotty nose tends to be a more productive route. 

[Gray-Wolf]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Didn't know this 

New coronavirus may spread through poop | Live Science

WWW.LIVESCIENCE.COM

---

Wash your hands after using the bathroom.

 

And folk would be appalled at just how 'fecally contaminated' we can be! Just watch Norovirus rip through a ward!!!

I linked to a Japanese study , upthread, showing (proof positive) just how much can escape your toilet if you flush with the lid up!

C,mon Guys! Lid down! and if you can do that maybe you can also sit to pee???

[Spikecollie]

11 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I now refer to him a 'Fridge Magnet' and ,as such, the white goods lining the streets of flood ravaged towns would probably prove too much of a draw?

Right "Fridge Magnet" it is! Gets around the political correctness "merde" for a while, too. All politicians from all parties are the same - I tried being a community Councillor for 8 years and then the BNP arrived and I didn't stand again. Love...

[Zak M]

3 minutes ago, swebby said:

Not unusual for viruses to spread this way, for example in bird/bat droppings, it is just that for human to human transfer, saliva/mucus from a snotty nose tends to be a more productive route. 

Ah. Cheers. I thought the saliva/mucus was the only route.

And yes as @Spikecollie says, you should always wash your hands.

[Gray-Wolf]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Ah. Cheers. I thought the saliva/mucus was the only route.

And yes as @Spikecollie says, you should always wash your hands.

And wash them for as long as it takes to sing 'happy birthday to You' twice over!

EDIT Not the 'rinse and shake' you see in most public WC's!

Edited February 21, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Spikecollie]

7 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

And folk would be appalled at just how 'fecally contaminated' we can be! Just watch Norovirus rip through a ward!!!

I linked to a Japanese study , upthread, showing (proof positive) just how much can escape your toilet if you flush with the lid up!

C,mon Guys! Lid down! and if you can do that maybe you can also sit to pee???

Yes, we need to be more open about "crap". We all crap and crap contains your own personal micro-biome. Keep it to yourself. It's amazing but personal!

[Spikecollie]

3 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

EDIT Not the 'rinse and shake' you see in most public WC's!

Isn't that the willy - remember the old advert " do the shake and vac and put..." "do the rinse and shake and make the bugs awake..."

[Gray-Wolf]

5 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Yes, we need to be more open about "crap". We all crap and crap contains your own personal micro-biome. Keep it to yourself. It's amazing but personal!

Indeed! When (a lot) younger the trainee nurses I had occasion to know had to harden themselves to asking patients whether they'd 'opened their bowels today' and how it was....

There's even a 'pooh chart' showing the various 'stool types' (I think 'stiff cow pat' is generally what you're aiming for?)

Whilst Luke was with us it was essential we kept up with his bowel and bladder so 'handovers' always involved an update!

Edited February 21, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Spikecollie]

2 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Indeed! When (a lot) younger the trainee nurses I had occasion to know had to harden themselves to asking patients whether they'd 'opened their bowels today' and how it was....

There's even a 'pooh chart' showing the various 'stool types' (I think 'stiff cow pat' is generally what you're aiming for?)

Whilst Luke was with us it was essential we kept up with his bowel and bladder so 'handovers' always involved an update!

Good! I'm open about faeces, given my job! Always have been, though - our body is what it is and we need to love it - all of it...

People are too reserved and hence the bowel cancer rates.

[Snipper]

52 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

This worries me. Not the susceptibility factor - but the racism.

If certain medical problems tend to run through families I don’t see why a proneness to one thing or another shouldn’t run with different races. It’s not racial just a matter of fact. 
 

My father died from prostate cancer, my brother died from prostate cancer.  I have had prostate cancer.